The Worst-Case Scenario

The Portland Timbers will not win the 2025 US Open Cup. Although they tried, a 1-0 loss to the San Jose Earthquakes after extra time is a dagger.

Recap

In order to properly assess this game, the starting lineup is necessary.

The Timbers rolled out a back three for the first time since March 8th (2-0 loss in Nashville). The back five is as close to first-choice as it can get (minus Eric Miller starting instead of Juan Mosquera, who desperately needed a rest). Some rotation was necessary for the front three, with Ariel Lassiter and Antony starting alongside first-time starter Gage Guerra (congratulations to him, non-derogatory). But the midfield was the most interesting. Joao Ortiz and Omir Fernandez in the center of the park. Only Ortiz could be described as a “central midfielder,” but I was intrigued to see how Fernandez would perform in such a crucial role. I also made a crucial mistake during yesterday’s match. It is possible to Jedi mind-trick yourself (Brian Schmetzer does it in every Portland-Seattle game) and I made myself believe that Cristhian Paredes was on the bench. He wasn’t. Portland’s (strong) bench consisted of Trey Muse, Juan Mosquera, Ian Smith, David Da Costa, Daniel Nunez, Felipe Mora, and Jonathan Rodriguez. Even if the starters weren’t performing up to par, the subs had the potential to change the game.

I didn’t have a problem with this lineup (mostly due to the Paredes mind-trick) and I thought it was strong enough for this game. That was my main concern. Portland had to take this game seriously, and I think they did. But all of my pre-match reactions still had to pass the pressure test.

That pressure test lived up to its name, quite literally. San Jose spent the majority of the first half attacking down their right side through Cristian Espinoza and created several big chances (most notably a picture-perfect opportunity for Ousseni Bouda that resulted in a field goal in the 20th minute). But the Timbers, although they were outpossessed 58-42 and outshot 10-5, created a golden chance of their own through Joao Ortiz in the 30th minute. An Ortiz through ball found Ariel Lassiter in the box, but the Costa Rican was stonewalled by Earl Edwards Jr.. That would be Portland’s best chance of the night. Also, that save necessitates a tangent.

TANGENT: Are You Kidding Me?

Welcome to today’s surprise segment! It’s called “Are You Kidding Me?” I feel like part of my responsibility as a writer is to constantly be innovating (no, not like the Sounders) and introducing new bits whenever inspiration strikes. Sometimes, I find inspiration in the smallest things. Today’s light-bulb moment came from looking at Earl Edwards Jr’s shots against chart.

Are you kidding me? Edwards Jr. (abbreviating his name as EEJ for the remainder of this article for brevity) started 3 MLS games for the Earthquakes this year while Daniel was injured. During those matches, he faced 10 saveable shots. SEVEN of them were goals. But that’s not the wildest part about it. ALL SEVEN OF THOSE GOALS WERE SHOTS INSIDE THE BOX. Entering this game, EEJ didn’t save a single shot in the box against MLS opposition DURING THE ENTIRE SEASON. Are you kidding me? So, when Lassiter breaks through into the box for Portland’s best chance of the night, the statistics say it will go in because EEJ doesn’t save shots inside the box against MLS teams in 2025. He pulls off an incredible save to keep the game scoreless. Are you kidding me?

Recap, Continued

EEJ’s save at the half-hour mark kept the game tied going into halftime. Portland’s defense had some hiccups, sure, but they did what needed to be done: keep the game scoreless so the bench could wreak havoc in the second half.

That bench did not wreak havoc in the second half. Neville waited 15 minutes to make his first change, which was Rodriguez for a yellow-carded Antony. Before the Uruguayan’s introduction, the Quakes came out of halftime on the front foot and should’ve earned a penalty after Dario Zuparic committed a handball infraction in the box in the 48th minute. With VAR, a penalty is always awarded. But there was no VAR in this game (God bless the Open Cup) and center referee Ramy Touchan didn’t point to the spot. However, Portland’s defense continued their excellent box defense from the first half. They really had to do it because constant turnovers in possession gave the Quakes many opportunities to drive at goal. But the deciding moment of the first half occurred in the 86th minute.

There was another major blown call in the 27th minute. A through ball for Lassiter was incorrectly flagged as offside even though the Costa Rican was still in Portland’s half. It would have been a big counterattacking chance, but the AR’s whistle robbed the Timbers of an opportunity to take the lead. That’s worth an eye-roll (at minimum) but it occurred in minute 27. I’m pretty sure y’all are familiar with my thoughts on what constitutes a “game-changing call.” Quick refresher: since a vast majority of game time remained for the Timbers to find a goal, I’m not putting a ton of stock into this awful mistake. However, that doesn’t apply to a call that the Timbers absolutely got away with.

After another midfield turnover, the ball was progressed to Espinoza on the right wing. Because Portland was in the “possession” phase of play, Claudio Bravo was occupying a wing-back’s position and was easily bypassed. I don’t have a problem with that. With 3 center backs, Bravo has enough license to get forward because of the extra cover behind him. However, this put Kamal Miller in a tough spot with Espinoza charging at him. As Miller steps to cover him, Espinoza’s first touch immediately puts him in on goal. Miller now has to recover, and fouls Espinoza pretty clearly. However, the placement of the foul is the most important part of the ensuing call. The assistant referee (the same one that flagged Lassiter as offside in the previously mentioned play) is the one to whistle the foul instead of Touchan. The center ref makes his way over to Miller and Espinoza, but has a brief chat with his AR first. After this dialogue, Touchan points to the penalty spot.

Here’s where things get tricky. Without the aid of VAR, this foul (and it is a foul) has to be judged in real time. In my eyes, at full speed, my first instinct was penalty kick. Although the contact begins outside the box, the actual foul that causes Espinoza to go to ground occurs entirely within the penalty area. Contact by itself isn’t enough to award a foul, and Miller and Espinoza are engaged in a 50/50 challenge as they enter the box. But Espinoza is fouled once both players enter the penalty area, so a PK should be awarded. I know this next part doesn’t follow the laws of the game, but VAR has taken away the proper vibes of soccer. So we need to add one more qualifier for this infraction: the Empathy Test.

Simply put, the Empathy Test is a one-question exam that requires a yes-or-no answer: “If this happened against my team, would I be mad?” This play does pass the Empathy Test, because I would be fuming if a similar sequence happened and the Timbers were not awarded a penalty from it. Objectivity in these situations is always 100% because I want a clean and fair game where the result can speak for itself on every occasion. There is no bias here, just logic. Reason will prevail.

Touchan decided not to award a penalty kick (after a confrontation with half of Portland’s field players that earned Rodriguez and Felipe Mora yellow cards) and gave a free-kick from outside the box instead. The Timbers got away with one. Portland’s last chance of regulation came in the 6th minute of stoppage time, when David Da Costa was driving at goal and decided to pass it to Mora. The pass was slightly off-target, and Mora’s shot was blocked. Extra time awaited, and a win was now even more imperative.

The final 30-minute period began with Ian Smith entering for Omir Fernandez to slot into the midfield alongside Da Costa. It was at this moment that I realized I’d been Jedi mind-tricked by myself. However, neither side seemed to have the legs to push for a winning goal in the first period of ET. Da Costa had a chance after a clearance fell to him outside the box in the 105th minute, but it seemed like penalty kicks were on the horizon.

That outcome did not arrive because San Jose finally got their goal. In the 117th minute, a Bravo pass was easily intercepted by Mark-Anthony Kaye, who immediately progressed the ball to Preston Judd with his first touch. Judd played a return pass to Kaye who was streaking into the box, and his weak shot (which was drifting wide of the far post) fell to Jack Skahan, who tapped it into a nearly-empty net. Portland’s chance to send the game to penalty kicks was an Ian Smith header into the arms of EEJ with the last action of an intense but heartbreaking loss.

The Big Question

It’s too easy to point fingers at Claudio Bravo for a double-sin of giving the ball away and keeping Skahan onside by protecting the goal line. My take is much more rational: do you blame Bravo for the giveaway or Juan Mosquera for not rushing back to make a challenge on Kaye? No, you do neither. You look at the entire game, which was FULL of midfield giveaways, and accept that such sloppiness will never go unpunished. It’s a shame that Bravo had to be at the center of the game’s only goal (more on that later), but it’s another Timbers outing with horrific ball progression and ongoing tepidity in the final third.

The stats will surely point to this because they are numbers and they can never lie. Let’s begin with the action most necessary to scoring goals: shooting the damn ball.

San Jose outshot Portland 19-14 using shots INSIDE THE BOX instead of all general attempts on goal. Now, 14 shots isn’t a bad number for a road game. But only 5 of Portland’s 14 attempts were inside the box. Although I’m torn between the statements “rotated lineup, can’t draw any big conclusions” and “they’ve been doing this for WEEKS at this point, conclusions can absolutely be drawn,” there is something EXTREMELY worrisome about Portland’s continued inability to penetrate the opposition box. They don’t want to attack directly. I feel pretty comfortable saying that after seeing the style of play shift over the past couple of weeks. The 4-1 league loss to the Earthquakes marked a major turning point for this team. Since that game, their attacks have looked labored and without the burst of speed that was present in the season’s early months. Could that be a knock-on effect of such a heavy load of games? Maybe. But it also speaks to their lack of a tactical plan once the ball reaches the final third.

I have plenty of praise for the defending in this game because of the disconnect between Portland’s backline and the midfield. I was about to use the adjective “growing” to describe this disconnect, but it’s been a pretty standard feature of the system since Phil Neville took over. Tonight’s game saw it at the most extreme.

Portland was effectively set up in a 5-0-5 out of possession, which gave San Jose’s midfield (Leroux and Harkes) all the time in the world to get open in the vast expanse between Portland’s lines. With a press that was often dragged out of position due to San Jose’s off-ball movement (DeJuan Jones gets a special mention here) even more space was vacated. You might notice that only one player is named in this formation graphic. It’s Dario Zuparic, who became uber-aggressive off-ball and would often charge into the space where the midfield should be. Sometimes this worked, but most of the time it didn’t. That’s because San Jose is well-drilled and each player knows where to be during most situations. This allowed the simple progressive passes to turn into direct attacks almost instantly throughout the game. The Earthquakes’ goal was coming since the opening whistle, but Portland’s box defense remained supreme. This was especially evident in an area of play that the Timbers turned from a weakness into a serious strength.

That’s a fair amount of negativity for a team that started a rotated lineup against an arguable first-choice offering from the hosts. But I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Portland’s VASTLY improved set piece defense. Since Olivier Giroud’s free kick found the back of the net on April 19th, Portland has not conceded a goal on a set piece. That Giroud free kick, by the way, marked the Timbers’ third set piece concession of the season. Shapi Suleymanov’s free kick and Franco Escobar’s header from Jack McGlynn’s free kick are the only other set piece concessions against the Timbers in 2025. Escobar’s header is the only “classic” set piece goal of the three. This pattern has held through the many rotations of the defense. In their past three games across all competitions, the Timbers have faced TWENTY-FOUR corner kicks, including 12 tonight. Their real Achilles’ heel has been a midfield and fullbacks that make it very easy for opposing teams to progress the ball.

It’s kind of hard to give player ratings for this game due to the extenuating circumstances (heavy workload and travel). But I have to do it regardless.

Player Ratings

Maxime Crepeau: 8.7

After Portland’s last trip to San Jose, it seemed like Crepeau had solidified a backup role. But the renaissance of Portland’s marquee 2024 free agent signing has been excellent to see. This run of quality performances has given me no reason to demand James Pantemis’ instant reinstallation to the starting keeper role once he returns from injury. There are still a couple wobbles (most notably a spilled shot from Beau Leroux in the 56th minute that leaked behind for a corner and a couple of long balls to the sideline that went out of play) but wobbles are usually fixed by confidence. Crepeau also had his major 1v1 moment in the 111th minute when he stonewalled Skahan from point-blank range. The Great Wall of Montreal is a big-game goalkeeper, and he gave it his all tonight.

Eric Miller: 6.8

Miller’s penchant for playing risk-free ball can backfire at times, but he wasn’t going to offer a ton of vertical threat from the right wing-back role. Most of San Jose’s troubling attacks came from the right wing, so Miller didn’t have a lot to do except keep shape and cover for Zuparic when he stepped out of line. However, I don’t think he was properly prepared to cover for Zuparic’s forward adventures, and a lot of space was left between Miller and Finn Surman. Mr. Reliable was rightly subbed off for Mosquera in the 72nd minute as the Timbers tried to go for the win.

Dario Zuparic: 7.7

One of the bonuses to Zuparic stepping out of line is his ability to progress the ball. The Croatian led all players with 14 passes into the final third. That stat is usually for the midfielders, but Zuparic is making his case to be the first-choice starter alongside Finn Surman. On current form, he is outperforming Kamal Miller in both distribution and defending. I’d also like to highlight his hilarious yellow card, earned after a cynical football-style tackle on Skahan. Although he showed the tackling ability of a New York Jet, I’d rather see that kind of effort than none at all in a cup match.

Finn Surman: 8.3

His play of the game occurred in the 12th minute, when he misjudged a ball over the top but recovered quickly enough to block the ensuing cross. I don’t have much else to say about his performance. I am interested to see if he starts on Saturday in Orlando. I’d argue that Wednesday’s game against Colorado is more important.

Kamal Miller: 6.7

This is where I become conflicted. Miller had several key blocks but there are a few things that I can’t overlook. The first one is obviously the penalty, but the second is his distribution. Completing 3 out of 13 attempted long balls is rather poor, even with a heavily rotated attack in front of him. The inconsistency and proneness to errors has been becoming more and more stark in recent weeks after a pretty good run of form in April. If competition for places is as fierce as Neville says it is, Miller could be feeling some pressure.

Claudio Bravo: 7.6

Go ahead. Yell at me. I don’t care. This is the correct rating.

I’m not going to single him out for blame for San Jose’s goal because he showed the correct mentality during both screw-ups. He was looking for a give-and-go during the giveaway and recovered back to the goalline but failed to block the shot. Despite performing the actions of two players for the last hour of gameplay, he was doing everything he could to deliver the team a win or preserve penalty kicks. At times, he looked like Portland’s most potent attacking threat while recovering from a slow start and growing into the game defensively. It’s ridiculous to tank his rating because of a poor mistake with the best of intentions behind it.

Joao Ortiz: 6.7

Ortiz has played a lot of minutes over the past couple of weeks, and he created Portland’s best chance of the match. I’d like to see him look forward more often with the ball at his feet. But, on the other hand, he was chasing shadows all night.

Omir Fernandez: 7.1

Although Fernandez is not a central midfielder, I can’t blame him for emphatically trying to be one. Effort goes a long way, even if he struggled with his positioning. It’s also worth noting that he won all 3 of his attempted tackles. Maybe with more time at the position, he could become a quality option. But it was a herculean task for him, and it was really concerning hearing Neville describe his start as “the best available option” with Paredes, Ayala, and Chara unable to travel.

Antony: 6.3

As the most “first-choice” attacker on the pitch, I expected more from the Brazilian. However, his turgid stretch continued. There was also some apparent frustration when he was subbed off. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the team’s attacking form has dipped during Antony’s cold streak.

Ariel Lassiter: 7.5

The Costa Rican was Portland’s most threatening attacker during the first half. However, his play trailed off towards the end of the game. He played the entire duration, but gets a higher rating for good effort and some quality corner kick deliveries.

Gage Guerra!- HUNGER.

Every time the ball entered Guerra’s hemisphere, he did whatever he could to get it. He didn’t get it that often, but sometimes the effort is enough to demand more first-team playing time. I expect him to sign a first-team contract soon. Having a young, mobile striker available if necessary is very good for the team.

Jonathan Rodriguez: 5.3

There is one certain truth that can be ascertained from this game: Jonathan Rodriguez cannot play out wide anymore. He needs to occupy central areas and limit all unnecessary movement. This includes tracking back, but also being counted on to beat players on the dribble. He isn’t a dribbler, he’s a finisher. The team’s attack gets worse when he gets on the field, and it’s worth wondering how long it will actually take for him to fully recover from his injury. Not a good spot for the team to be in with one of their two DPs.

Felipe Mora: 6.3

For Mora to be effective, he needs to receive service. With only one creative player on the pitch (Da Costa, maybe Bravo or Mosquera) that service was never going to come. I don’t think Mora’s entry was entirely necessary in regulation. I would have rather seen Guerra stay on due to his mobility.

David Da Costa: 6.8

Portuguese Dave had to enter as a central midfielder, and I’m not going to talk about his defensive duties. I will talk about how his poor finishing ability is becoming a serious problem. There are going to be times when he has to shoot, and those shots have to get on target at minimum. I don’t mind having a pass-first number 10, but goals have to become a part of his repertoire, even if they don’t happen that often.

Juan Mosquera: 6.2

The Colombian was brought on to stretch the field, and he didn’t do enough going forward. Add in his failure to cover Kaye at the end of the game, and it was a very underwhelming outing from the Colombian.

Ian Smith: Ian Smith

Could Ian Smith have entered earlier to play out of position in the midfield? After this game, I’m pretty positive he would’ve given a good account of himself. He certainly did throughout extra time. Of course, hindsight is 20/20, but I like seeing Smith making the most out of every opportunity he gets, no matter what position he plays.

Daniel Nunez: One Tackle

In his second first-team appearance, Nunez gave a solid account of himself in his brief cameo. This included winning a tackle! I like seeing the youngest ever Timber leave a good impression.

Coach Rating: 4.4

This is where it gets tricky. How much do you believe that Paredes, Ayala, and Chara weren’t fit enough to travel for this game? I’m leaning towards 50/50. However, you can’t doubt that the Timbers were taking this tournament seriously. This was a strong lineup despite the missing players. However, I can’t get over one change from the head coach.

Bringing Jonathan Rodriguez on at the 61st minute, with the possibility of extra time looming, was a mistake. Per Neville, the Uruguayan was only fit enough to play “20-30 minutes.” That’s a huge risk to bring him on this early while he’s still recovering from injury with a potential 30 additional minutes added on. That decision takes this rating from a fairly average 6 to a 4.4. I can’t get over it.

Final Whistle

“This is the most disappointed I’ve felt all season,” Neville said post-game. It’s hard to disagree with him. But there is one important thing to note as the 2025 Timbers begin to establish their identity.

Last year’s Timbers were disproportionately reliant on their attack to keep them in games. It’s absolutely hilarious that the exact inverse is happening this season. But a stronger defense makes them a better team, and it is worth noting that they have only lost two of their past 12 games. Both of those games were in San Jose, who are a good team. Portland’s depth, however, isn’t as strong as previously thought. When the starters aren’t firing, there isn’t a reliable player to bring on to change games. Rodriguez could be that guy, but this injury rehab is beginning to become more worrisome than encouraging.

I wanted the Portland Timbers to win this trophy more than anything. The continuous failure to take this tournament seriously always bothered me as a longtime watcher of the team. This isn’t due to some “Save the Cup” nonsense or anything. This tournament still has serious flaws (lack of VAR is not one of them) but it presents the easiest route for CONCACAF qualification. However, I believe (at least at the present state) that the Timbers did try to take this seriously. Unfortunately a combination of injuries and fatigue (plus the schedule doing them absolutely no favors) led to a brutal exit.

This is unquestionably the worst-case scenario for the Timbers. In addition to being knocked out, they played 120 minutes of soccer with several starters in for the entirety of the game. It would have been worth it if the result went the other way, but it didn’t. It’s on to Orlando, because Portland’s league form is now the most important thing they have to fight for. The climb continues.