Portland Timbers-St. Louis CITY Preview (6/8)

That break was nice, wasn’t it? After Portland’s busy May, it’s time for an intriguing June. First on the docket is the second Sunday Night Soccer game of the season against St. Louis City.

The Ravioli Report

Most expansion teams take a little bit of time to get going, but St. Louis decided to blow the conventional wisdom out of the water. There are exceptions to the rule like LAFC and Atlanta, but those teams can be qualified as “big-market.” St. Louis (definitely a small market) labeled themselves as the Soccer Capital of the United States and set out to back up those words in 2023. Despite some overwhelming fraud, the Raviolis finished their inaugural season at the top of the Western Conference. Such fraudulence couldn’t go unpunished, and the soccer gods saved their disapproval for the worst (funniest) possible time. A colossal season probably should’ve entailed a deep playoff run. But the Raviolis suffered a first-round elimination at the hands of their biggest rivals. This 2023 season prompted two questions for St. Louis: could they repeat their regular season exploits while surpassing their previous playoff outing?

The short answer to both questions is “no.” But it isn’t about how you finish, it’s about the journey. And boy howdy did St. Louis embark on a journey in 2024.

Let’s begin with what they did correctly. In my opinion, head coach Bradley Carnell was snubbed for 2023’s Coach of the Year award. However, it was blatantly obvious that the roster overperformed in 2023. So some upgrades were needed, and deals for Cedric Teuchert and Marcel Hartel were agreed upon with both German second-tier players set to arrive in the summer. Well, that’s all the good news. Here’s what went wrong.

From the beginning of the season (late February) until the end of June, the Raviolis only won three games. Regression to the mean hit them hard, and it cost Carnell his job. Interim head coach John Hackworth took over, and he suddenly had a plethora of new players to work with. Teuchert and Hartel were the stars, but players like Simon Becher, Jake Girdwood-Reich, and Jannes Horn boosted the squad depth. The interim head coach arguably had a stronger squad than the actual manager. So St. Louis’ goalscoring numbers sharply rose, but their lowly defense couldn’t stop conceding. As the season ended with the Raviolis in 12th place (10 points out of the Wild Card game), Lutz Pfannenstiel’s priority in the offseason was crystal-clear: fix the defense.

Season 3 in the Soccer Capital (get a load of that, I can’t even write it with a straight face) began with the hiring of a former Aston Villa defender to fill the head coaching role. Olof Mellberg, who played defense, was expected to be the Ravioli’s savior. Quick tangent: there’s a trend among managers who used to play professionally to focus on the inverse of the position that they played during their playing career. Phil Neville is a pretty good example of that, as the former defender has prioritized having a good attack (not at the expense of the defense either). Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola used to be a goalkeeper, but his revolutionary pressing structure saw the Cherries finish 9th. Mellberg was a defender, and he certainly set out to fix the defense.

Unfortunately, that came at the expense of the attack. Mellberg’s odd selection choices (most notably Kyle Hiebert at right wing-back) completely nerfed St. Louis’ ability to score goals. Now, there is a caveat. The Raviolis have been the most injury-riddled team in the league this year. But there are no major reinforcements on the way, and Mellberg still failed to give the attack a proper platform. It cost the Swede his job. St. Louis CITY SC has fired their head coach in TWO of their THREE seasons of existence. It’s beautiful and hilarious.

The Raviolis (3-5-8, 14 points, 14W/27S) have scored the 3rd-fewest goals (13) in 2025, ahead of only Austin (11) and Montreal (12). Only 6 of those 13 goals came from open play. Based on pure non-penalty xG, their attack has been a little unlucky, but still putrid. Only 3 teams (New England, Toronto, and SKC) have accumulated less non-penalty xG than St. Louis’ 17.7. After a strong start defensively with 5 shutouts in their first 10 games, the Raviolis haven’t recorded a clean sheet since April 19th’s 0-0 draw against Vancouver. Mellberg’s preference for a 3-4-3 severely hampered St. Louis’ best attackers. The spotty availability of Eduard Lowen (their best player by far) has also crippled them. The Raviolis are 3-2-1 when the German midfielder starts, and the one loss occurred when he got sent off in Philadelphia. It’s also worth noting that Lowen’s 2 goals have been game-winners (a free kick against Seattle (nice) and a penalty last weekend against San Jose). Simply put, the Raviolis have not won a game in 2025 without their star player in the lineup (0-3-7 record with no Lowen).

While Lowen is undoubtedly the centerpiece, there is still a lot of talent on this team. The bigger question revolved around the new manager, and it led to a wide range of preseason predictions.

Their exciting end to 2024 (where they were trying to make up a giant gap) was buoyed by the seamless transition of the new signings to the league. I picked them to finish 8th in the West on the strength of their attack. The cratering of their goalscoring seems to be anchored on Mellberg’s wild tactical decisions. Interim head coach David Critchley didn’t really take the handbrake off last weekend, but he did move back to the 4-2-3-1. St. Louis could be a “riser” during the second half of the season, and there’s a big hole to dig themselves out of.

STL Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

Bad news for the visitors. Lowen’s absence is tough to overcome. Durkin and Teuchert are also big misses. Nilsson and Alm have been hurt for a bit (May 14th and May 7th, respectively). Conrad Wallem is also suspended after getting sent off last weekend.

On a scale from 1-10, my confidence in this predicted lineup is a 2. Here are the Sharpies: Burki, Totland, Kessler, Baumgartl, Morales, Reid, Hartel, and Klauss. The Raviolis aren’t just injured; they’re severely depleted in central midfield. Any combination of Klauss, Becher, Hartel, and Pompeu could make up the forward line. However, St. Louis can start both first-choice fullbacks. More of the same for the Raviolis: too many absences and a makeshift starting XI.

The Timbers Report

The Timbers (7-5-4, 26 points, 4W/11S) are ready for the softest part of their schedule. Before Leagues Cup begins, Portland will play 8 MLS games with 5 of them at home. Their opponents during this stretch are averaging 1.19 points per game. The Timbers, meanwhile, are averaging 1.63 points per game. It’s been a really good first half, and their playoff credentials are set to take a big boost if they can take care of business.

Call-ups

3 Portland players were called up for the Gold Cup. Maxime Crepeau and Kamal Miller will be with Canada, while Ariel Lassiter is representing Costa Rica. The tournament will take place from June 14-July 6th. Only three Timbers games are taking place during that time. Finn Surman also received a call-up to the New Zealand national team, but he will only miss tomorrow’s match.

I still think it’s ridiculous that MLS insists on playing through international windows, and I whine about it during every international break. Portland isn’t as heavily affected as other teams, but it’s still nonsensical. Some people measure the success of the league by competition achievements against Mexican club teams, but I measure it by how seriously it takes itself. Playing through international breaks is unserious. Scheduling two games during the UEFA Champions League final is unserious.

Cap Math

Quick spoiler: there will be no cap math in this section. By this time of the year, the MLSPA has usually released the list of player salaries. That list has not been made public at the time of publishing. It’s very disappointing.

PTFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

Even though Kamal Miller received a call-up for the Gold Cup, he will be available for tomorrow’s game. McGraw is still out with a back injury. Rodriguez’s timeline is murky. On Friday, Phil Neville said that a 2-week timeline was “optimistic.”

Is this Portland’s best lineup without Finn Surman? I certainly think so. If Chara is available, he has to start. Mora starts again as the “home striker.” The rest of the team picks itself.

Tactical Preview

Counterattacks

Portland is often thought of as a counter-attacking team. However, I have a rather surprising chart to show y’all.

Jamon Moore on Bluesky posted this graph on Friday, and the Timbers are all the way at the bottom. In order to dig into this issue, a definition is needed.

The main problem is speed. Portland ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of possession won in the midfield. Based on that number (Fotmob is the only site that tracks it, Portland has won possession in the midfield 293 times) it is rather shocking that the Timbers aren’t immediately turning those midfield turnovers into direct attacks. I think it’s a problem that centers around hesitancy.

Timbers players never look upfield when possession is won in the midfield. The first check is often to the side or backwards. Given that the counterattack is defined as taking place in 12 seconds, this first instinct often instantly kills any chance of the attack occurring. None of the other criteria can be met without speed.

In order for speed to be accomplished, the first pass has to go to David Da Costa or Antony. Portuguese Dave acts as the short option, while Antony is the long option. The Timbers are young and fast, and they have to start using that to their advantage.

Attacking Balance

The Da Costa-Antony options for beginning counterattacks also apply to how the Timbers attack in possession. Per WhoScored, the Timbers attack from the left side of the pitch 41% of the time. That’s the largest proportion in the league. Unsurprisingly, this affects their attacking ratio from the right side. Their mark of 32% is tied for the lowest in the league. Throw in the 27% of attacks coming from the middle, and the Timbers are pretty unbalanced. That imbalance points to one player: Juan Mosquera.

Last season, the Timbers found balance in their attack. Portland attacked down the right side 36% of the time compared to 35% on the left. I wrote about this specifically after the 3-1 loss to Philadelphia when the Timbers were over-reliant on the right side to create chances and progress the ball. The 2025 Timbers have flipped that completely on its head. Juan Mosquera provided the game-winning assist against Colorado, and the Timbers need him to rediscover his 2024 form. Hopefully that assist is the beginning of that rediscovery.

Physicality

Last year’s St. Louis led the league in fouls. 2025’s edition is far less prolific (15th in MLS), but that was mostly due to Mellberg’s cowardly tactical decisions. Last weekend’s game saw the Raviolis get called for 18 fouls, which is tied for their season high. I expect them to be back to the St. Louis of old. Portland’s players need to be prepared to fight for every second ball and stand their ground in the face of aggressive Raviolis.

Matchday Info

Announcer Analytics

English: Jake Zivin, Taylor Twellman, & Andrew Wiebe

Spanish: Sammy Sadovnik & Diego Valeri

Home radio broadcast from 750 The Game: available on Apple TV

Broadcast platform: Apple TV

Kickoff time: 4 PM PST

Referee Report

Malik Badawi’s 2025 stats: 10 games, 24.6 fouls/game, 0.3 penalties/game, 3.5 yellows/game, 0.1 reds/game

Last Timbers game officiated: May 4th, 2024 @CLT 2-0 L

Series History

Record across all competitions: 1-2-2, -2 goal differential

Record at Providence Park: 0-1-1, -1 goal differential

Current streak: 1 unbeaten

Current streak at Providence Park: 1 unbeaten

Table Time

This is a busy weekend in the Western Conference. Vancouver, Seattle, LAFC, SKC, Colorado, and Austin are all in action. The Vancouver-Seattle game is particularly interesting, and not just for Cascadia Cup reasons. The Whitecaps faceplanted in Mexico City last weekend; losing 5-0 to Cruz Azul in the CCC Final. Later in the week, it became known that the team was suffering from stomach flu prior to and during the game. That epidemic has been tearing through the team, and it puts serious doubt on this weekend’s game.

Gauld is the only player listed with an actual injury. Of course they’re playing the Sounders this weekend. They can’t keep getting away with it.

Final Whistle

Tomorrow’s game will take place under a heat advisory with temperatures expected to be in the mid-90s at kickoff. For those who are planning to attend, sealed water bottles and sports drinks will be allowed in the stadium. Game-wise, substitutes will be very important.

This game is set up perfectly for the Timbers to continue stacking points. All they have to do is show up and play their game. Anything less than a victory would be a disappointment. The climb continues.