Portland Timbers-Seattle Sounders Preview (5/17)

*Cover photo credit to Lindsey Wasson/The Oregonian.*

Y’all know what week it is.

The Sounders Report

After failing to beat their biggest rivals at their home stadium for the 7th year in a row, the Seattle Sounders handed out white carnations to their fans while those rivals lifted a trophy on the other side of the field. That match happened on Decision Day, but the Sounders were able to finish in 4th place, guaranteeing them home-field advantage for the first-round Best of Three series. Once those Sounders entered the playoffs, it didn’t take them long to do what they have always done: keep getting away with it.

Now, that might seem rather vague, but I can’t give you a clear definition of “getting away with it.” As the Sounders stumbled to the Western Conference Final, I kept muttering that phrase to myself. Think about it. How else would you describe the Houston Dynamo getting a player sent off in back-to-back games, and the Sounders STILL failing to win those games in regulation? Does it apply to Steve Clark, who failed to save ANY of Seattle’s TWELVE penalty kicks in the resulting shootouts? After getting away with it against Houston, they traveled to LAFC for the Quarterfinal Round. In that game, Brian Schmetzer did something that I’ve never seen before. He scrapped Old Reliable; the Sounders’ trusted 4-2-3-1 that they’ve used since Nico Lodeiro arrived. And you’ll never guess what happened: they got away with it again.

Ryan Hollingshead gave the hosts the lead in the 50th minute, but Maxime Chanot scored an unbelievably stupid own goal 9 minutes later to tie it up. As the Sounders withstood heavy LAFC pressure throughout the second half, Stefan Frei was forced to make several big saves. Then, in the second period of extra time, Jordan Morris somehow found the back of the net to give Seattle a win against a team that dominated them mentally and physically over the past year. Luckily, their Western Conference Final trip would be back in LA, but it would be the Galaxy who stood in their way of another MLS Cup berth.

This game stunk. But the Galaxy found a winner when an injured Riqui Puig left it all out on the field to assist Dejan Joveljic in the 86th minute. A run so fraudulent that a man playing through a torn ACL provided the dagger. Another trophyless season was unacceptable to Sounders fans, and to ownership/management as well. So how did the Seattle Sounders decide to improve their squad in the winter? First, they had to clear out the dead wood.

That dead wood is named Raul Ruidiaz, and he left the club after scoring his last goal on June 22nd against Dallas. The Sounders love a good bit of storytelling, so it was rather poetic when Ruidiaz (the striker who couldn’t score in 2024) scored his last Seattle goal against his eventual replacement: Jesus Ferreira (who hasn’t scored in 2025). The American striker was traded to Seattle for a decent return: $1M 2025 GAM, $500K 2026 GAM, Leo Chu, and a conditional $800K GAM. In the winter of 2024, Ferreira was wanted by Russian club Spartak Moscow. A bid of $13M was accepted, but MLS vetoed the deal due to “optics.” If a player wants to play elsewhere, and his parent club wants to sell, the deal should be accepted. It doesn’t matter what country the buying club is from. Fast forward a year, and Ferreira is in a Sounders jersey. They can’t keep getting away with it.

What made this deal even more intriguing was Ferreira’s DP status. After re-signing Albert Rusnak (to the dismay of some fans), Seattle had a roster limits problem. Jordan Morris’ contract was structured in a way that made him a DP in 2025. Rusnak’s new contract was also DP-level, and Pedro de la Vega occupied Seattle’s third DP slot. The Sounders, who would never break the rules without league approval, suddenly had an issue. But Ferreira decided to sign a new TAM-level contract after the trade was finalized.

Craig Waibel was not satisfied with only one FC Dallas player joining the Sounders in the winter. Five days after the Ferreira trade was finalized, Paul Arriola was acquired by Seattle for $300K GAM. Because Schmetzer finally beat LAFC with a 3-4-3, he was determined to implement it in 2025 as the team’s primary formation. You need wingbacks to make that tactic work, and Arriola spent 2024 as one of Dallas’ starting wingbacks.

Seattle’s eventful offseason ended with a familiar face returning (Kim Kee-Hee) and a familiar face departing (Josh Atencio, my favorite Sounder). Now that the Sounders had assembled a pretty deep squad, the media hype began.

I might be a hater, but I’m a realist first. In my predicted Western Conference standings, I had the Sounders in 3rd behind Minnesota and LAFC. Right behind Seattle were the San Jose Earthquakes. I never let my blinding hate for the Seattle Sounders get in the way of my objectivity. And, objectively, this is a good team with a deep squad. They’re led by one of the best coaches in the league. Every year, they look like an excellent team on paper. But then the games begin. And do you know what happens when the games begin? They keep getting away with it.

Some of these are rather minor, but they’re all valid. Time to go through the three most consequential ones in order. I’d call the entirety of their 5-2 victory against LAFC fraudulent. To begin, both teams rotated due to CCC scheduling conflicts. Seattle’s substitutes made the difference, and the game showed that Seattle’s depth was better than LAFC’s depth. Both teams lost those CCC games, but LAFC advanced on aggregate while Seattle traveled to Cruz Azul 4-1 reason. But the last two on this list gifted the Sounders a result.

On April 26th in Colorado, Rafael Navarro got on the end of a cross and headed the Rapids in front in the 86th minute. However, the center referee called a foul on Navarro. I can’t even explain why this foul was called in real time because I didn’t see anything illegal from Navarro on the play. But there was no way for VAR to overturn such a subjective call, especially because both players were making contact with each other while trying to win the header. Either way, the game ended 1-1, and the Sounders got away with it. Last weekend, it was a rematch of last year’s first round matchup in Houston. After Houston center back Femi Awodesu equalized from a header off of a free kick, it was his turn to be absolutely screwed by the officiating. There have been a lot of dubious red cards in MLS this year. I referenced Diego Luna’s red card against Toronto in my preview of the RSL game. But I’m afraid nothing comes close to this.

Victor Rivas, who is addicted to calling DOGSO, sent Awodesu off for this routine challenge. Upon further review, it was judged to be a handball. In no way can this foul be considered a true handball because there is no unnatural action taken by the defender to cause the ball to hit his hand. A 1-1 game turned into a 3-1 Sounders victory as they finished the match against a 10-man Houston team. They can’t keep getting away with this.

The Sounders (5-4-4, 19 points, 6W/13S) are still good. But this will be their 3rd road game of the week, and they’re coming off a 4-0 plastering at the hands of LAFC on Wednesday. However, Schmetzer rotated for this game, so Seattle’s best XI should be available barring injuries.

SEA Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

This is the same report from Wednesday. Morris’ absence was confirmed weeks ago, but there was a chance of Ragen being available. Arriola is on the SEI list after tearing his ACL.

You have to hand it to him. Brian Schmetzer has hit the “Old Reliable” button again. The backline and midfield picks itself, but the biggest intrigue is the forward line. I didn’t mention a player that could be the Sounders’ top acquisition in 2025: Ryan Kent. After Arriola tore his ACL, the Englishman was signed on a free transfer. Prior to making his Sounders debut on April 19th, Kent hadn’t played in a competitive match since July 23rd. Last weekend, he made his first start for Seattle. However, he has already tallied 3 assists in 143 minutes and looks like Seattle’s most dangerous attacker. Rusnak has made the 10 position his own, and De la Vega looks like the most likely player to start on the right wing. However, the injury-riddled Argentine played 71 minutes on Wednesday. Georgi Minoungou, the hero of the Open Cup game, could be in a position to start over De la Vega if Schmetzer deems him worthy. Morris might be absent, but Musovski has scored in each of his last 5 starts. Seattle’s depth was overrun in midweek, but Schmetzer has to pick his best possible XI for this game. The ocean demands it.

The Timbers Report

Unlike the Sounders, the Timbers (6-4-3, 22 points, 4W/9S) are bringing an unbeaten streak into tomorrow’s match. A rotated team brought back a point and a clean sheet from Salt Lake City, which increased their streak to two games (three in all competitions). Although the Timbers have only scored 3 goals in their past 4 MLS games, I’m not too worried about the sudden drop in offensive production.

Portland’s non-penalty expected goal differential is +3.1, which ranks 5th in MLS. That number was higher prior to the San Jose loss, so I’m viewing this as regression to the mean. However, it is worth noting that some of their attacking patterns of play aren’t exactly repeatable.

I had the pleasure of catching up with Dario Zuparic after training today. I only had three questions for the Croatian, so here they are. I’d suggest reading his responses in his accent.

Q: How are you feeling getting back onto the field again?

A: Good. It’s always good to have a clean sheet. It feels good for me. I haven’t played a competitive game for seven months so it felt a little weird. But I felt good, and I was working hard all these months to be ready.

Q: Normally when there’s a ball coming towards you at waist-level, you choose to head it away instead of control it with your feet or chest. Why do you do that?

A: Sometimes it’s easier to attack the ball with my head because if I go with my feet and the ball is too far I can’t turn my leg, so it’s easier to just jump and hit the ball with my head. I don’t even think in those situations. I just react.

Q: As a player who has participated in plenty of Portland-Seattle matches, what has been your message in the locker room this week with so many players who haven’t experienced this rivalry before?

A: We need to stay calm. For me, every game is the same. I play like this every other game. Just relax and do normal stuff like you do before every game.

Diego Chara is synonymous with this rivalry, having played in 35 Portland-Seattle games throughout his Timbers career. “I think there are always good games played against Seattle. We know how important it is for our fans, for the club, and for me it has been amazing to have the opportunity to play in so many matches.” The club captain returned from injury on Wednesday and is available to make his 36th appearance against the Sounders tomorrow.

PTFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

Here’s how Phil Neville described the team’s injury situation during Thursday’s pre-match press conference. I’m going to compare it to the injury report.

Zac McGraw: out (true)

James Pantemis: 50/50 (he’s out, so this is technically correct)

Jimer Fory: available (true)

Diego Chara: no mention (listed as questionable)

Kevin Kelsy: doubtful (out)

Kelsy’s addition to the report is surprising, but Neville is banking on him being ready for the Open Cup game on Tuesday in San Jose. Fory is available again after missing the past three MLS games.

Chara may be listed as questionable, but I’ll be shocked if he isn’t in the starting lineup tomorrow. Surman and Ayala were rested midweek and are also Sharpied in. Even if Pantemis was off the injury report, I’d still be calling for Crepeau to start this game. He is a big-game goalkeeper and has recorded back-to-back clean sheets. Fory should also be back in the starting lineup. This has to be the game that Jonathan Rodriguez gets his first start of the season. I said it against RSL, and it didn’t happen. I think it’s safe to say that alarm bells should be ringing if the Uruguayan isn’t in the starting lineup tomorrow.

Tactical Preview

Defending Cutbacks

After the San Jose game, Neville said that the team didn’t defend cutback crosses well enough. After the RSL game, Kamal Miller emphasized how the team worked on that area of defending and the result was a clean sheet. The Seattle Sounders, however, are cutback merchants.

This chart (courtesy of American Soccer Analysis) is a couple weeks old, but the point remains: no team is more productive from cutback crosses than the Seattle Sounders. There are two phases to preventing a cutback cross: stopping the crosser and, if that fails, stopping the cross. Against RSL, the Timbers did a good job of stopping the cross. But in order to win tomorrow’s game, they’ll have to stop the crosser. I asked Neville about defending cutbacks today. Here’s his response:

“The teams that we’ve played recently have been teams that cut back crosses. So I think [that] the San Jose game was the first game this season where it wasn’t really necessarily the back four. It was probably the midfield four coming back into that space. We obviously look at oppositions, that space is really dangerous because you can get fragmented in midfield. Wingers sometimes don’t come back. So that’s probably the areas that most teams are exploiting. It’s true that Seattle are really good on cutbacks and we’ve got to defend them well. We’ve got to defend well in general because they put five, six on the highest line. They’ve got quality. They’ve got experience. And it’s a derby game. We’ve got to be brave, we’ve got to be aggressive, we’ve got to show our qualities. We’ve got to go out there and play our game and raise the intensity from the other night.”

Testing The Hypothesis

Portland is averaging a field tilt of 33% at home this year. I always find the Portland-Seattle games at Providence Park fascinating because each team is reversing the roles of what a home team and a road team should do. Tomorrow, the Sounders will likely come out looking to dominate the ball. But the Timbers will be trying to control the game with the ball tomorrow, which is something that they haven’t been able to do at home this year aside from a couple of stretches. Seattle’s rest defense is still very good, so the Timbers will have their work cut out for them.

Set Pieces

This part will be quick. I’d like to see the Timbers score from a dead ball in this game. With Fory and Surman back in the team, they should be able to capitalize against a Sounders team that hasn’t been great at defending set pieces. I’m also interested to see if the coaching staff takes Da Costa off of corner kicks and free kicks. In derby games like this, set pieces will be the great equalizer. And if the Timbers execute correctly, set pieces could be the great winner.

Matchday Info

Announcer Analytics

English: Max Bretos & Brian Dunseth

Spanish: Sergio Ruiz & Walter Roque

Home radio broadcast from 750 The Game: available on Apple TV

Broadcast platform: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV

Kickoff time: 6:30 PM

Referee Report

Rosendo Mendoza’s 2025 stats: 8 games, 28.13 fouls/game, 0.5 penalties/game, 5.25 yellows/game, 0.25 reds/game

Last Timbers game officiated: July 4. 2024 @DAL 3-2 L

Series History

Historical record (all-time): 47-18-57

Historical record since 2011: 19-10-16, +2 goal differential

Home record: 12-3-8, +4 goal differential

Current streak vs. SEA: 2 unbeaten

Current home streak vs. SEA: 1 win

Quick note: the last draw between these two teams in Portland was on June 25, 2017. There have been 12 straight Cascadia matches at Providence Park with a victor.

Table Time

It’s mid-May, and only one Cascadia game has been played. Since the schedule is completely balanced (1 home and 1 away game) the Timbers need to make the most out of every rivalry game if they are intent on keeping the Cascadia Cup in Portland. But a win wouldn’t just help Portland’s defense of the regional rivalry trophy.

The Sounders are hot on Portland’s heels in the Western Conference table. But the Timbers are looking to reclaim second place from San Diego. Los Azules and Minnesota are playing SKC and STL, respectively. The West is still wide open, but this is a must-win game for Portland, regardless of opponent.

Final Whistle

But this opponent is not like any of the other teams that will visit Providence Park in 2025. Since this week features several rivalry games across the league (and has been designated “Rivalry Week” by the league itself) the discourse has been active about which matchup is the “biggest.” I get it. Clicks and views have to be generated. But it’s my turn to enter the arena. Here is my personal top 5 of MLS rivalries.

5. SKC-St. Louis

4. Colorado-RSL

3. Toronto-Montreal

2. Columbus-Cincinnati

1. Portland-Seattle

*Both Cascadia combinations with Vancouver are classified as 1b.*

You might notice that two “big” rivalries have been left off the list: El Trafico (LAFC-Galaxy) and the Hudson River Derby (NYRB-NYCFC). Personally, those matches (while they can be entertaining) lack the primary driving force behind a rivalry: hatred of another city. El Trafico is contested between two teams from the same city with one group of fans formerly supporting the other one but switching sides when a shiny alternative came around. That same logic also applies to the Hudson River Derby. The league wants those matches to be important because LA and NYC are big markets. But, nothing, and I mean NOTHING, compares to regional dominance.

I don’t just dislike the Seattle Sounders. I hate the entire Seattle-Tacoma metropolitan area. I could never hate another team from Portland because the Rose City is my city. Since the Sonics packed up and left for Oklahoma City (a place that knows how to wear free playoff shirts) there is only one avenue for these cities to compete in professional sports: soccer. And in the United States of America, no two soccer teams have hated each other as long as the Portland Timbers and Seattle Sounders.

This rivalry was formed on May 2nd, 1975 when the Sounders beat the Timbers 1-0 at Civic Stadium. It was the first game in Portland Timbers history. Since their inaugural game 50 years ago, the Portland Timbers have never stopped hating the Seattle Sounders. 21 years after that first Portland-Seattle game, MLS was founded. A baby born on May 2nd, 1975 would be one month away from legally being able to drink a beer when the first MLS game was played. Since MLS hates acknowledging that soccer was around before the league was founded, 21 years of pure hate gets constantly ignored by the powers-that-be.

Portland is celebrating their 50th anniversary this year. Seattle did the same in 2024. Both teams are wearing their special 50th anniversary jerseys for this game. Portland’s is a deep, dark green that represents the forests and trees that surround this area of the country. Seattle’s fake green kit is adorned by pinstripes that represent pajamas worn by Sounders fans when they turn on the TV to watch their team and are promptly put to sleep out of boredom. When the Sounders were set on designing their new away kit for 2025, they actually put out a pretty decent offering.

You have to hand it to them. It’s a pretty sleek jersey with accompanying shorts. However, there are two major errors. First of all, it looks like a blanket. This works out pretty well because some people don’t like wearing pajamas. Now Sounders fans have a comfy blanket to choose from when they want to get put to sleep by their favorite team. But this kit has another superpower: the Sounders haven’t lost a game while wearing it. Personally, when this dropped, I thought it would be better utilized as a Vancouver Whitecaps kit. The Vancouver Whitecaps, by the way, are currently atop the Supporters’ Shield standings and are playing in a CONCACAF Champions’ Cup final in two weeks. Therefore, the Sounders decided to dress up like a good team in order to play like one. Like I said before, you have to hand it to them.

Gut the Fish. Detonate the Whale. Beat Seattle. The climb continues.