Portland Timbers-San Jose Earthquakes Preview (6/13)

Since a loss in Nashville on March 8th, the Portland Timbers have only lost 3 games. Two of those defeats were against tomorrow’s opponents: the San Jose Earthquakes.

The Quakes Report

The Earthquakes (6-4-7, 22 points, 8W/19S) have only played 3 games since beating the Timbers 1-0 in the Open Cup Round of 16. So let’s run through those games, because y’all are probably familiar with the team by now.

Four days after that Open Cup win, the Earthquakes hosted the Houston Dynamo. After going down 2-0 in the 50th minute, San Jose scored 3 goals in a span of 10 minutes (66-76). This sudden flurry gave them the lead, but it was canceled out by Griffin Dorsey in the first minute of second-half stoppage time. For the record, backup keeper Earl Edwards Jr. was in between the sticks for this game. He faced 3 shots on target.

Edwards Jr. started four days later in Carson due to Daniel’s recurring injury. He made 6 saves to earn a shutout, and Ousseni Bouda scored the game’s lone goal to give the Quakes a needed Cali Clasico victory.

Their most recent game happened three days later in St. Louis. They went into halftime down 1-0 thanks to a Joao Klauss strike, but Josef Martinez equalized in the 83rd minute. A late penalty concession (courtesy of a foul from Edwards Jr.) kept the Quakes from finishing the month of May without a loss (5-3-1 in all competitions).

They’ve had a two-week break ahead of tomorrow’s game, and those two weeks have provided plenty of time to stew over the St. Louis loss. Daniel was healthy enough to make the bench in that game, but DeJuan Jones and Chicho Arango were not. The injury report will be vital.

SJ Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

The biggest news here is Chicho Arango’s return. Lopez has been dealing with injury throughout the majority of the season.

I vary from game to game on how confident I am with my opposing lineup predictions. This might be the most confident I’ve been all year. Max Floriani has been holding down the RCB spot, but I think Rodrigues gets the nod for tomorrow’s critical road game. The partnership between Jones and Espinoza on the right is one of the more underrated batteries in the league. Josef Martinez could start, but I think he plays the role of supersub.

The Timbers Report

For the second time as Timbers manager, Phil Neville will not be on the sideline. Assistant Dave van den Bergh will take his place, which sets up a rather fascinating coaching matchup between Bruce Arena and his former assistant. “It is kind of ironic,” van den Bergh told a group of reporters on Wednesday. But he didn’t seem as interested in the “assistant vs. mentor” dynamic because of the reason Neville won’t be coaching. He picked up his 3rd yellow card of the season against St. Louis, and (per van den Bergh) it was due to a comment directed at his own player. Van den Bergh thought it was a “joke,” but the Timbers (8-5-4, 29 points, 4W/8S) must persevere. Speaking of perseverance……

A SEI of Relief?

The worst-kept secret is finally out. Jonathan Rodriguez will undergo season-ending knee surgery. Of course, there is so much more to this story than Portland’s top goalscorer from 2024 missing the rest of the season.

Let’s begin with the player himself. On the field, it looked like Rodriguez was never fully healthy. I’ve heard conflicting reports about his exact injury, but it seems like last year’s knee issue (which he played through) never fully healed. The Uruguayan will end his second season in Portland with 1g/1a in 6 games.

There’s one more “player” aspect of this news that bears reporting.

That second paragraph becomes much more important now. I firmly believe that Jonathan Rodriguez has played his last game in a Timbers uniform. His contract runs until the end of 2026, making 2025 one of the qualifying “last two years.” That really changes the resulting roster impact.

There will be a summer transfer window preview coming soon with many more details about the whole team, but I’m going to dive into the Rodriguez part. He will certainly be put under the SEI tag, which opens a DP slot for the Timbers. It’s very easy to assume that the team should sign a forward to fill that slot, but I’m concerned with that line of thinking. Without spoiling too much of an upcoming article, the front office has to keep the upcoming winter in mind. There’s also the aspect of Miguel Araujo’s departure and the cap space opened from that transaction.

With that in mind, the Timbers don’t need to target a DP forward with this slot. Backheeled’s Joseph Lowery claimed that their season is now “destroyed” due to Rodriguez’s injury (he’s barely played) and Evander’s departure (complete bullshit) but they’ve vastly improved their table position based on last year’s mark at 17 games with a healthy Rodriguez and a non-pouty Evander. You know what? I’m declaring a tangent.

TANGENT: Officially Mad Online

I got really mad yesterday because of that tweet and decided to set the record straight. For those who aren’t on the Elon Musk Website of Misinformation and Generative AI, here’s a clear and concise argument against Lowery’s nonsense-peddling.

I think I made my point pretty clear. But it’s been a while since I got mad online, and I’m getting pretty sick of the way that this team is represented in a national sense. Portland is 4th in the Western Conference with a retooled roster and a very good points total. Yet the prevailing argument revolves around this team being “fraudulent.” Don’t get me wrong, I’ve been asking that question all year. But there are more important things to talk about when it comes to this team. In particular, there’s one thing that the Portland Timbers excel at. And it’s something that NONE of the other 29 MLS teams have done. The Portland Timbers are, by a wide margin, the most successful team in the league when it comes to the U22 Initiative.

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Like the Rodriguez rebuttal, it needed to be said. Tangent over.

“We Cannot Replace Him”

Pep Guardiola famously said those words at the end of 2021 when Sergio Aguero finished his Manchester City career. The greatest manager in history said it in a literal sense: we’re not going to sign a striker this upcoming summer. They did sign one (Julian Alvarez) but quickly sent him out on loan to River Plate (the club they bought him from). Their big splash came in the summer of 2022 with the arrival of Erling Haaland from Dortmund. The Timbers aren’t going to wait a full year to replace Rodriguez. But they should wait until the winter to sign another DP forward.

Filling this DP slot doesn’t mean finding a player to match Rodriguez’s production. It means finding a player to match his impact. Portland desperately needed another goalscorer in 2024, and position didn’t matter. Rodriguez fit the profile. His acquisition made the Timbers a better team by solving one of their weaknesses. Now, with the highest-leverage roster slot available, the Timbers need to take that same approach to the “Rodriguez replacement.” That doesn’t mean a forward is needed. A central midfielder is the key.

David Ayala is stuck between a 6 and an 8. The Timbers should find a high-quality partner for him this summer. This is not an indictment of Joao Ortiz, Cristhian Paredes, or Diego Chara. It is simply the best possible move to make the team better. Two profiles spring to mind: a destroyer or a box-to-box. My pick is for box-to-box, because the partnership between Ayala and Paredes (a box-to-box profile) seems to get the best out of Ayala. This hypothetical player is absolutely worth a DP slot. A case can be made for a DP center back, but I think a midfielder helps with Portland’s defensive issues AND improves their attack.

There’s a silver lining to the situation as well. The extra cap space could be used to bring in a TAM forward to literally replace Rodriguez in the depth chart. I’m leaning towards a winger who is goal-dangerous. Those types of players can be available on TAM deals, but the production wouldn’t match Rodriguez’s output. That’s OK. Portland spent the offseason fixing last year’s biggest issues. They no longer need to score 3 or 4 goals to win a game. It’s nice to score a lot of goals, but it isn’t as pressing of an issue. With a DP central midfielder and a TAM winger, the Timbers would replace Rodriguez’s production as well as his impact.

PTFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

Zac McGraw’s recovery timeline is unclear, but that’s typical with back injuries. He was back on the field during Wednesday’s open training session, but remained on the side away from the group. Crepeau and Lassiter are still on international duty. However, Kamal Miller is now with the Canadian national team for the Gold Cup. Finn Surman returns from two good games with New Zealand, including a Man of the Match performance against Cote D’Ivoire. I don’t think I need to explain Rodriguez’s inclusion.

Portland’s lineup is pretty easy to predict, with Surman replacing Miller. Diego Chara will probably start this game. But it could be Chara, Joao Ortiz, or Cristhian Paredes. The only guarantee is David Ayala. Mora gets another start at home, acting as the anvil to Kevin Kelsy’s hammer.

Tactical Preview

Waking Up

San Jose is coming off of a two week break and the Timbers have the momentum from a stoppage time winner in last weekend’s game. It’s also worth noting that the Timbers will definitely be out for revenge against a team that beat them twice within the last month. I expect to see the Timbers be fully awake from the first minute. In their past three home games, they haven’t scored the first goal. Tactics are a part of it (particularly the players’ willingness to move off the ball) but those runs fall into the mentality part of the game too. If the players aren’t “awake” and ready to go, those runs won’t occur. Their primary goal should be scoring first.

Fory vs. Espinoza

Portland’s main defensive focus will be San Jose’s star winger Cristian Espinoza. However, the top chance creator in MLS isn’t facing Claudio Bravo in tomorrow’s game. It’s Jimer Fory’s turn to battle the dangerous Argentine. The halfway point of the season has been reached, and Fory has been the most impactful new player by a decent margin. Nothing against David Da Costa, but the energetic Colombian has been able to improve two of Portland’s major weaknesses: set piece defending and rest defense. Tomorrow, he will face his toughest test so far.

Taking Shots

Regardless of which keeper starts for the Earthquakes, this point will remain the same. The Timbers need to take more shots. If there’s an open look, take it. This has a positive effect for two reasons: unpredictability and a higher chance of chaos.

It can be very easy to defend against this Portland team because of their simple attacking ethos in possession: get the ball in wide areas before squaring it into the center of the box. If the Timbers are suddenly taking shots from all angles of the pitch, it makes them more unpredictable and, therefore, more likely to score. Of course, those shots have to be well-executed, but it could still work out if they aren’t.

Rebounds, deflections, you name it. The Timbers don’t take advantage of the sheer chaos that can ensue when a shot is taken. A shot that began as a half-chance could turn into a big chance from a deflection or a rebound. I’d like to see speculative efforts hit with force in this game. Unsettle the Earthquakes with a combination of unpredictability and risk-taking.

Matchday Info

Announcer Analytics

English: Jessica Charman & Jamie Watson

Spanish: Jesus Acosta & Carlos Suarez

Home radio broadcast from 750 The Game: available on Apple TV

Broadcast platform: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV

Kickoff time: 7:30 PM PST

Referee Report

Victor Rivas’ 2025 stats: 10 games, 23.5 fouls/game, 0.2 penalties/game, 4.7 yellows/game, 0.4 reds/game

Last Timbers game officiated: February 23rd, 2025 vs. Vancouver 4-1 L

Quick notes: Rivas is tied with Ricardo Fierro, Rosendo Mendoza, and Sergii Boiko for the most dismissals in the league with 4. Rivas, in particular, keeps a close eye on DOGSO offenses. That’s the same rule that resulted in Kamal Miller’s red card in the last Timbers game he officiated. The team should try their hardest not to give him any reason to reach for his back pocket, so avoiding those kinds of scenarios should be a top priority.

Series History

Historical record vs. SJ: 20-11-7, +19 goal differential:

Home record vs. SJ: 15-5-0, +25 goal differential:

Current streak vs. SJ: 2 losses

Current home streak vs. SJ: 20 unbeaten

It’s true: the San Jose Earthquakes haven’t beaten the Portland Timbers at Providence Park since the Timbers joined MLS in 2011.

Table Time

It’s about to be a turbulent week in the Western Conference. One of San Diego or Minnesota (or both) are set to drop points. Vancouver travels to Columbus. Club World Cup play begins for the Sounders and LAFC. The Portland Timbers are guaranteed to remain in the top four, but there’s a chance to leapfrog San Diego and Minnesota into second place.

Final Whistle

Year 50 of the Portland Timbers continues tomorrow night with a special theme. Several former players from the 1975 Timbers will attend the game and be honored at a special halftime ceremony.

This is Portland’s best opportunity to exorcise some demons and prove the doubters wrong. The former sounds easier than the latter, but 3 points would be massive for a combination of reasons. Either way, the 1975 squad is in the house. Phil Neville is not on the touchline, but he’ll be in the locker room for pregame. After this game, the Timbers will not play next weekend before traveling to Toronto on June 28th. Stewing over a home loss for 2 weeks is not an optimal state of mind. 3 points or bust. The climb continues.