Portland Timbers-Real Salt Lake Preview (7/16)

The midweek special of Portland's 3-match week is a date with an old foe: Real Salt Lake. On a festive occasion, there should be another party in Portland.

The RSL Report

After a 0-0 draw between tomorrow's combatants on May 14th, Real Salt Lake's winless streak reached 3 games. It ended up stretching to 7, culminating in a 2-0 loss in Carson on May 31st that gave the Los Angeles Galaxy their first win of the season. After a week off due to an international break, RSL defeated DC 2-0 at Rio Tinto Stadium on June 14th. They haven't lost a game since, and are now unbeaten in 4.

Let's break down how the mighty Monarchs (7-4-10, 25 points, 11W/21S) have fared in each of their last 3 games. It's worth noting that star midfielder Diego Luna was on international duty for the DC win, and he stayed with the USMNT for the Gold Cup. Their two games without the oldest-looking 21-year-old in the world were against the Darbeque teams: SKC and St. Louis.

First off, they traveled to Children's Mercy Park with a couple familiar faces in tow. Johnny Russell (who is not a SKC club legend, according to actual SKC fans) and William Agada played their first games at SKC as a member of the opposing team. It's also worth noting that SKC and RSL consider themselves rivals. Russell opened the scoring in the 2nd minute of first-half stoppage time, and didn't appreciate the cold reception from the Cauldron. However, Erik Thommy equalized in the 59th minute and the 1-1 score held firm until the final whistle.

On Saturday, the Monarchs hosted the Houston Dynamo. Agada scored his second goal of the season in the 42nd minute, and RSL was able to keep the dangerous Dynamo off the scoreboard in their 5th shutout of the season.

This recent unbeaten streak begs a question: is RSL actually good? Suddenly, their front four of Agada, Luna, Zavier Gozo, and Diogo Goncalves (who has been rather impressive during this run) looks dangerous. The midfield has been boosted by the return of Pablo Ruiz from an ACL tear. Most of their key contributors on the backline are fully healthy. If there was a time for RSL to announce themselves as a playoff team, it's in these last couple games before Leagues Cup begins.

RSL Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

None of these players (aside from Ojeda) could be considered a starter. It’s a big departure from the reverse fixture where half of RSL’s backline was unavailable.

You could make the case that this is the strongest possible lineup that RSL can field. It’s worth noting that RSL’s 3-match week ends with a home game against Cincinnati on Saturday. Given their recent results and table position, it feels correct to predict that the Monarchs try their hardest to win tomorrow. I’d like to highlight a couple of players here. Vera’s back-breaking challenge on Mason Toye last year will probably result in a chilly reception from the Providence Park faithful. You all know who Noel Caliskan is, and he’s done an excellent job learning the position of right back and excelling in that role. Eneli was getting Best XI shouts during the early months of 2024 but has been injured for a decent portion of 2025. Gozo has been a revelation as an 18-year-old academy prospect. Substitutes to watch for include Grant High School graduate Philip Quinton, versatile defender Sam Junqua, SKC “legend” Johnny Russell, and second-year winger Dominik Marczuk.

The Timbers Report

A lot of time has been spent discussing Portland's poor road form. Somehow, it's allowed their stellar home form to slide completely under the radar.

Six teams (Columbus, Nashville, Philadelphia, NYRB, Portland, and Seattle) have only lost one home game all year. However, Portland's +4 home goal differential is the lowest out of those teams. The 4-1 loss to Vancouver certainly has an effect, but their GD would still be the smallest in that selected group if that Vancouver game was removed.

I find it rather curious that the Timbers' largest home win was the 3-1 Houston game. As a matter of fact, it's the only multi-goal home win of the season. Every other home victory had a margin of one goal. Hell, the Timbers have 2 two-goal road victories and 1 three-goal road victory!

The Timbers (9-6-6, 33 points, 5W/11S) have been able to sustain their climb up the table by simply not losing at home. Their home unbeaten streak has reached 10 games following the 2-1 win against New England. It is crucial for their season for this unbeaten run at Providence Park to continue. Ideally, it continues as a winning streak.

PTFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

Lassiter’s status is the only change from last weekend. Kamal Miller isn’t listed here, but he’s suspended due to yellow card accumulation.

Miller’s absence makes it impractical for the Timbers to play in a back three. So a reversion to the 4-2-3-1 is probably the choice formation tomorrow. The back five picks itself. Moreno, Da Costa, and Mora are all primed to start. But there are two questions: left wing and central midfield. I think left wing is easier to solve, and my prediction is a first home start for Omir Fernandez. But the midfield is a bit tougher. Tomorrow could actually be a great time to use David Ayala as a supersub. On such a hot day with temperatures expected to hit the triple digits, bringing some extra quality off the bench against tired legs could be a good move for the Timbers. There is one player that I expect to start, and it’s Cristhian Paredes. He’s perfect for a game like this against a tough, physical opponent. Chara seems likely to slot in alongside him, but Ayala is still the first-choice option in the center of the pitch. I’m intrigued to see how Neville sets up the midfield tomorrow.

Tactical Preview

Aggression

The Portland Timbers need to start making opposition teams pay for stepping on the pitch with them. This is not an endorsement of dirty play, per se, but it is a call for the team to get more aggressive. Throughout most phases of play, the Timbers are passive; both mentally and physically. Ironically, this results in a ton of yellow cards, usually due to late challenges or necessary tactical fouls. Maybe aggressive isn’t the right word here. I think “assertive” is a more accurate depiction of what I’m talking about. The Timbers need to assert their control over a match, especially in an important game like this one.

Crashing the Box

For the second home game in a row, I’m making a serious point about box-crashing. Ian Smith’s opening goal last weekend was a perfect example of what this team needs to do on a regular basis. If crossing is still going to be their primary method of creating chances (it doesn’t need to be), there has to be a multitude of players willing to crash the box to get on the end of them. This is true for every type of entry ball. In addition, I’d like to see more balls into space tomorrow.

Matchday Info

Announcer Analytics

*Broadcaster assignments have not been released at the time of publishing. Blame Apple for not releasing these until the last possible second.*

Home radio broadcast from 750 The Game: available on Apple TV

Broadcast platform: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV

Kickoff time: 7:30 PM PST

Referee Report

Alexis Da Silva’s 2025 stats: 14 games, 24.86 fouls/game, 0.07 penalties/game, 4.57 yellows/game, 0.07 reds/game

Last Timbers game officiated: October 3rd, 2024 vs. ATX 0-1 L

Series History

Historical record: 15-12-13, +8 goal differential

Home record: 9-7-4, +10 goal differential

Current streak vs. RSL: 5 unbeaten

Current home streak vs. RSL: 2 wins

Table Time

San Diego, Minnesota, and Seattle play at home tomorrow, while Vancouver travels to Texas. Colorado and LAFC are on the road. Portland has another opportunity to keep pace with the rest of the Western Conference. But they have to win.

Final Whistle

Tomorrow isn’t a normal midweek home game. The 2015 MLS Cup champions will be honored during this game. It’s been 10 years since the Timbers added that precious cup to their trophy cabinet. It’s also an occasion that demands a win.

This isn’t a monster preview because there isn’t that much to say. With three games left before Leagues Cup, the Timbers need to do everything they can to win each and every one of them. That St. Louis loss is a bigger wake-up call than the Toronto disaster. But they’re back at home, and every home game from this point forward is a must-win. The Timbers don’t need to demolish opponents, even though that would be very pleasant to watch. They need to assert themselves on whichever team is in front of them. And, of course, score some g*****n goals. The climb continues.