Portland Timbers-Minnesota United Preview (7/19)

With 1 win in their last 5 games, the Portland Timbers are in the midst of a slide. That recent run coincided with a relatively “soft” portion of the schedule. Now the upcoming slate of games represents Portland’s biggest test of the season. And their first opponent is a team perfectly built to take advantage of all of their weaknesses.

The Loons Report

These two teams last met on June 29, 2024. After going down 2-0 early in the first half, Evander scored a PK to cut the deficit to 1 right before halftime. Portland dominated the second half and Dairon Asprilla assisted Jonathan Rodriguez’s winner in his last game as a Timber. After that game, Minnesota added two key players (DP striker Kelvin Yeboah and DP playmaker Joaquin Pereyra) and finished the season with only 2 losses in their final 9 league games. That strong run of form was enough to clinch the 6th spot in the West and a first-round date with RSL. The Loons triumphed in both games with each win coming in a penalty shootout. Unfortunately for them, their Conference Semifinal matchup with the LA Galaxy ended in a 6-2 bludgeoning. Despite the thumping exit from the playoffs, Eric Ramsay’s first year in charge of Minnesota United could only be viewed as a success. So how would Chief Soccer Officer Khaled El-Ahmad and Ramsay improve the team in the offseason?

First, the deadwood had to get cleared out. And there was no wood more dead than Franco Fragapane, who departed the club on a free transfer. Zarek Valentin retired, Clint Irwin and Moses Nyeman had their contract options declined, and center back Miguel Tapias was sold to Chivas. DP striker Teemu Pukki was sold to his native Finland, joining HJK Helsinki one month before the season began. To replace these departures, only 3 players were signed from foreign clubs. The Tapias replacement was former Atletico Tucuman center back Nicolas Romero. Midfielders Hoyeon Jung and Owen Gene joined from Gwangju FC and FC Amiens, respectively. But their highest-profile addition was a successful waiver claim for former Atlanta, DC, and Miami midfielder Julian Gressel. Upon further review, I think it’s rather odd that the Timbers didn’t try to acquire one of the top crossers in the league, but Minnesota was a pretty good fit. Minnesota, by the way, doesn't have a single player on a salary greater than max-TAM.

My preseason prediction for the Loons was 1st place in the West. I thought that their strong spine and striker tandem of Yeboah and Tani Oluwaseyi would be enough to raise their floor to the top of the West. Well, with 23 games played, let’s see how that prediction panned out.

Minnesota (11-7-5, 40 points, 3W/7S) are the most unique team in Major League Soccer. In an era where ball-dominance and pitch control is the greatest indicator of trophy-winning potential, the Loons have decided to embrace the exact opposite philosophy. No team has a lower average possession than Minnesota’s 39%. No team has attempted fewer passes per 90 than Minnesota’s 369.8. Both of these stats are significant outliers compared to the rest of the league. There are two major ways that Ramsay’s system is able to work, and I’ll get to them later. But this team is perfectly crafted to exploit Portland’s biggest weaknesses.

MNUFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

That’s one backup goalkeeper and one player with 4 appearances on Minnesota’s injury report. But Oluwaseyi, Romero, and Pereyra are on yellow card warnings.

Even though this is a long roadtrip on very short rest, Ramsay has to be thinking “first-choice XI.” But some changes could be in order from Wednesday’s defeat. Diaz starting at RCB over Carlos Harvey seems the most likely. Markanich has taken the LWB spot from Joseph Rosales, but it could be a good game to start the Honduran. Hlongwane is a Timbers killer with 4 career goals against Portland, including a game-winner at Providence Park in 2023. Owen Gene could replace Trapp, and Gressel could also play in the midfield tomorrow. Ramsay has options, but this is his clear first-choice XI.

The Timbers Report

I didn’t want to do any statistical analysis of the Timbers (9-6-7, 33 points, 6W/14S) until the end of this busy week. Rather than looking at raw numbers, it’s time to dig a little deeper and look at goals added instead. Portland is not passing the eye test, but maybe the most pure set of underlying numbers can explain their recent troubles. If you want a full explanation of G+, I’d suggest reading this. Longtime subscribers to Cascadia FC should be familiar with this metric by now.

The G+ Review

This is going to be rather disorganized, so bear with me. Before I get to team-wide metrics, let’s look at individuals. The first stat I’d like to look at is shooting, and it should come at no surprise that Felipe Mora and Kevin Kelsy are amongst the league’s worst performers in this category. Ironically, despite Mora logging about 50 more minutes than Kelsy, their number is the same (-0.27). The major difference between these players is in the receiving category, where Mora has a positive number (+0.11) and Kelsy has a negative one (-0.25). Although Antony is injured, his passing number (-0.71) is amongst the league’s worst. David Da Costa, meanwhile, is comfortably within the top 30 in passing (+0.95). Kamal Miller is the league’s 5th-lowest performer in the interrupting category (-0.81), but David Ayala is the league’s 5th-highest performer in the same stat (+1.22). Ayala is also the league’s best defensive midfielder in that category, with Colorado’s Josh Atencio coming in a distant second (+0.80). Fouling is a two-way stat that tracks fouls received and fouls committed. Jonathan Rodriguez won a penalty against the Galaxy, so his number of +0.36 is amongst the highest in the league. Five Timbers rank amongst the league’s lowest in fouling, with Antony being the worst offender (-0.36) followed by Diego Chara (-0.33), Santiago Moreno (-0.27), Joao Ortiz (also on -0.27), and Claudio Bravo (somehow also on -0.27). Da Costa is the only Timber who is a top-30 dribbler (+0.62). Three Timbers are bottom-30 dribblers: Kevin Kelsy (-0.97, 6th-worst overall), Antony (-0.87), and Felipe Mora (-0.58). On the goalkeeping side, James Pantemis has the 4th-highest number for passing (+0.24), ranks 10th in shot-stopping (+3.01), and is 4th in sweeping (+0.32). In terms of overall G+, Pantemis ranks 9th in the league (+3.24).

Team-wise, Portland has the 5th-lowest “goals added for” with 23.51, below teams like DC United. They rank 22nd in G+ differential (-4.60), which is somehow above Cincinnati, who are second in the Shield standings. In terms of cumulative receiving, they’re 6th-worst (+13.25) and are 7th-worst in shooting (+6.14).

Here’s where the numbers begin to jump off the page. It’s time to look at G+ against, rather than for. Positive numbers are bad in this dataset. Portland has the 4th-lowest dribbling G+ against (+2.29). But they have the 3rd-best passing G+ against (+1.97). They have the 6th-worst fouling G+ against as well (+2.30).

Overall, the Timbers have a couple of standout players (in a negative sense, aside from Da Costa, Pantemis, and Ayala). And as a team, they’re unable to consistently receive the ball in dangerous areas, which is directly correlated to their poor chance creation. As a result, it is no surprise that their shooting is so poor. As these numbers continue to foretell poor attacking form, it’s so much more important that they become tougher to play against on the defensive side of the ball.

PTFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

After being scratched prior to kickoff on Wednesday, Da Costa is officially questionable for tomorrow’s game. Antony was doing individual work on the side during today’s open training session, and Jonathan Rodriguez seemed to be in good spirits despite being on crutches. Zac McGraw is off the injury report for the first time since mid-May and Kamal Miller is available after serving his one-game yellow card suspension.

Even if Da Costa is available, I’m wholeheartedly predicting a back three setup tomorrow. Having an extra center back is good for stopping counterattacks, while the wingbacks will provide width and service from wide areas. Since Da Costa’s status is questionable, I’m picking a team without him in case he isn’t cleared to play. Ortiz should return to the starting lineup tomorrow, and so should Kamal Miller. However, I fully expect a Zac McGraw cameo at some point due to his aerial ability. It’s Omir Fernandez’s turn to play as a twin 10 with Santiago Moreno, and Felipe Mora is a must-start.

Tactical Preview

Set Pieces

Minnesota has scored a total of 40 goals in 2025, and 15 of them have come from set pieces. That’s not entirely due to the garden-variety dead balls like corner kicks and wide free-kicks either. In 2025, the Loons have been optimizing the long throw to deadly effect. Michael Boxall acts as the taker and launches the ball into the box. But what makes the throw so effective is the presence of Anthony Markanich on the back post. In order to erase Minnesota’s dead-ball prowess, the Timbers need to be committed in every stage of the play. Clearing the first ball won’t be enough. Be prepared for the second ball, third ball, or however many get sent into the box. Even the smallest hesitation could result in a goal. A fully locked-in mentality is the only way to win the set piece battle against the Loons.

Possession Play

Minnesota’s other bread-and-butter comes from counterattacks. The combination of Oluwaseyi and Yeboah (sprung by Pereyra, Lod, Rosales, or Gressel) work incredibly well in tandem. Both strikers are downhill players who can beat defenders on the dribble and run past them with good pace. The key to stopping these counters has two parts: be organized and be confident on the ball.

The “organized” part speaks for itself. By staying in a compact shape, Minnesota won’t have as much space to exploit on counters. But the simplest way to prevent counters is to keep possession and not commit dangerous turnovers. That’s easier said than done (especially with this team) but it can be accomplished if the Timbers are confident on the ball. I asked Neville about the team’s confidence on the ball (particularly as it relates to taking risks) on Friday. Here’s his response:

“I have to take responsibility for the last two or three games because I think we’ve played with too much caution. We’ve played a little bit with doubts in our minds. Sometimes when you lose a little bit of confidence and the insecurities I think, as a coach, you need to give them more responsibility. You need to make them braver and you don’t make them braver by taking safe options. We want to take risks. Part of our philosophy and my philosophy is ‘In order to win games you have to take risks.’ To take risks, you have to provide a platform for the players to go out there and enjoy taking those risks without being punished or without being criticized. That’s the big thing I’ve reflected on. We want to take risks, we want to go forward, and I think we need to be more dynamic in our attacking and defending play. And tomorrow, they’ll have the freedom to do that.”

Matchday Info

Announcer Analytics

English: Jake Zivin & Ross Smith (hell yeah)

Spanish: Rodolfo Landeros & Diego Valeri (hell yeah)

Home radio broadcast from 750 The Game: available on Apple TV

Broadcast platform: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV

Kickoff time: 7:30 PM PST

Referee Report

Ricardo Fierro’s 2025 stats: 13 games, 27.15 fouls/game, 0.54 penalties/game, 3.38 yellows/game, 0.31 reds/game

Last Timbers game officiated: May 11, 2025 vs. SKC 1-0 W

Quick note: The center referee from Wednesday’s game (Alexis Da Silva) will be in charge of the San Diego-Vancouver game this weekend. VAR official Sorin Stoica (who was also in the booth for the Asterisk) is the VAR official for Seattle-San Jose. Accountability doesn’t exist with PRO.

Series History

Historical record: 5-2-10, -4 goal differential

Home record: 5-1-3, +5 goal differential

Current streak: 1 win

Current home streak: 1 win

Table Time

The West’s top two teams face each other tomorrow, while LAFC has a Trafico on their plate. Seattle hosts San Jose as well. I’m constantly repeating myself by saying “tomorrow is a huge opportunity” but this is the biggest one of the season so far. Reminder: the Timbers have not played San Diego yet and they haven’t traveled to LAFC, Seattle, Vancouver, and Minnesota either. The Loons, meanwhile, lost at home to LAFC on Wednesday. Although the Timbers are no doubt feeling some fatigue from such a compressed week, at least they didn’t have to travel.

Final Whistle

Speaking of traveling, Portland International Airport was busy (duh) this past week as a boatload of former players arrived in town. As I was arriving at the team’s training facility in Beaverton today, Dairon Asprilla was too. His airplane had just landed, and he still had his checked bag with him. Alongside Asprilla, several former players were observing today’s training session: Diego Valeri (who was also getting a little bit of work done given that he’s on the call for tomorrow’s game), Sebastian Blanco, Adam Kwarasey, Rodney Wallace, and Jeff Attinella. You can also count Portland’s radio color analyst Aaron Heinzen amongst the crowd. In total, 35-45 former players will be at tomorrow’s match. But only 11 of them will be getting honored as the members of the team’s All-Time XI.

The full lineup has been revealed, and I’m only upset at one thing. Larrys Mabiala should have been here. But it’s still a wonderful representation of the Portland Timbers. Tomorrow, each of these players will get even more recognition for their achievements. It’s going to be an emotional evening.

That emotion should be a key motivator for the current team as they go through this rough patch (or “wobble”, as Neville calls it). Tomorrow’s game will be the biggest celebration of the 50-year anniversary of this club during this season. No matter who is available, no matter who sees the pitch, they have to play their heart out for the badge. That’s what will be honored more than anything tomorrow. Minnesota is beyond a doubt the toughest opponent the Timbers have faced since returning from last month’s international break. The opportunity to make a statement is here. The crowd will be behind them. All they have to do is execute and take three points from a playoff rival in their home stadium. The climb continues.