Portland Timbers-Colorado Rapids Preview (5/28)

*Cover photo credit to Amanda Loman/AP.*

The Portland Timbers have enjoyed a strong start to the season. After a shaky opening month, their campaign truly began after a 3-0 victory in Colorado on March 22nd. Now the Timbers welcome those same Rapids to Providence Park for a midweek reverse fixture, and both teams are ready to give it their all.

The Rapids Report

Prior to that 3-0 home loss to Portland, the Colorado Rapids were unbeaten in their first four MLS games of the season. That loss didn’t knock them off course entirely. They only lost 1 out of their next 5 games, and that lone defeat was in Vancouver. However, their 1-1 draw with the Seattle Sounders on April 26th left a sour taste in their mouths. A potential game-winner from Rafael Navarro in the 86th minute was ruled out due to Navarro winning a 50/50 ball in the air against Yeimar. That sounds ridiculous and rather reductive, but it’s true. The Sounders got away with it, and the Rapids suffered. Three consecutive losses followed: at DC, vs. San Jose, and in San Diego. The DC game in particular warrants a special mention.

Prior to that game, head coach Chris Armas was inducted into the US Soccer Hall of Fame. Congratulations to him, it’s fully deserved. But there was a major problem. This ceremony took place in Dallas, and the Rapids were playing in DC later that night. There was a plan for Armas to get to the nation’s capital in time for kickoff. I’m going to spoil the ending here: Armas will not be on the sideline for the DC game. And it’s worth exploring how that outcome became a reality.

Per the website of the National Soccer Hall of Fame, a livestream of the event was scheduled to begin at noon central time. Here’s a quick ground rule: there is a one-hour difference between Washington and Dallas. Armas has six hours to get to the sidelines of Audi Field after the ceremony begins. These are the time constraints that he has to work with (traffic conditions not accurate):

Drive from Toyota Stadium to DFW: 23 minutes

Drive from Toyota Stadium to Dallas Love (if he is flying Southwest): 28 minutes

Flight time DFW-DCA (he’s not flying into Dulles lol): 2 hr 50 minutes

Flight time DAL-DCA: 2 hr 50 minutes

Drive from DCA to Audi Field: 9 minutes

The most likely scenario is a drive to DFW and flying American Airlines flight 1629 (rabbit hole fully opened) to DCA which departs at 2:55 PM CT and is scheduled to land at 6:51 PM ET. Assuming that he has no wait for baggage claim, Armas should be able to make it to Audi Field right before kickoff. There are a lot of extenuating circumstances, but it’s possible. However, the newly-minted Hall of Famer is already doomed.

His flight was delayed by an hour, and it made his timely arrival prior to kickoff impossible. As the fanbase waited to see if he would make it, the Rapids posted an update on social media.

You might have noticed the primary issue already. Chris Armas, the head coach of a professional sports team owned by Stan Kroenke, is flying COMMERCIAL from a HALL OF FAME INDUCTION to a GAME THAT HE IS COACHING. In theory, it could have worked. But it’s utterly ludicrous that a team owned by Kroenke is shelling out AAdvantage miles to get the coach from a lifetime achievement ceremony to his current job. This is my favorite story of the season. I can’t stop laughing about it. DC, to be fair, tried their best to outdo it last weekend.

DC United lost this game 2-0 at home to their biggest rivals. I can’t stop laughing. I love this league.

Armas’ airplane disaster was the first loss of 3 straight for the Rapids. However, their last two results have been 1-0 wins against RSL and STL. The story of Colorado’s season has been awfully timed concessions (DC took a page out of their book, huh).

The Rapids (6-4-5, 22 points, 7W/15S) have played 15 games. Let’s take the period from the 40th minute to the end of the first half and call it “Crapids Time.” There’s a reason why I’m calling it that. In 7 of those 15 league matches, Colorado has conceded a goal in Crapids Time. 9 out of their 20 total goals conceded have come in Crapids Time. I’ve gone on record saying that the worst time to allow a goal is right before halftime. The Rapids have made an unfortunate habit of it.

Djordje Mihailovic might be the most underrated player in the league. Although his counting stats are rather low (6g/2a in 15 matches) he is the most important player on this team. Those low assist numbers aren't his fault. He has the most expected assists in the league (5.9). Colorado is still lacking a true difference-maker on the wing. Offseason acquisition Ted Ku-DiPietro has slowly been working his way back to match fitness. The young American made his first start last weekend and adds a punch to their winger corps, but he’s not the game changer that this team is crying out for. Although there is some star power in the Box State (Mihailovic, Rafael Navarro, and Zack Steffen) the Rapids seem like they’re one player away from being a legitimate contender in the Western Conference.

COL Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

Steffen and Bassett’s absences were expected. It’s still an open question what’s going on with Rosenberry, who is the team captain. Navarro’s status is the most interesting. The Brazilian striker missed the 1-0 victory against St. Louis last weekend.

Awaziem missed Saturday’s game due to a personal reason, but is cleared to return to the starting lineup tomorrow. Other than that, I can’t foresee too many changes from the team that beat St. Louis last weekend. Special shoutout to Josh Atencio, my favorite Sounder. Potential subs to watch for are former Wolves player Connon Ronan (eww), Calvin Harris (not the DJ), Jackson Travis (two first names), and Kevin Cabral (Kevin Cabral).

The Timbers Report

Phil Neville doesn’t want to make excuses. “It’s been a demanding month, but I wouldn’t say that there’s any fatigue in the camp. Anyone thinking about fatigue is making excuses.”

The Timbers (6-5-4, 23 points, 6W/13S) are one game away from finishing a brutal month of May. 8 games in a period of 25 days, with 5 of them away from home. The travel has been obscene. The short turnarounds have been merciless. But the light at the end of the tunnel is almost here. Beginning with tomorrow’s game, the Timbers are about to enter a homestand (of sorts). It’s time for the Leagues Cup run-in.

There are 9 games until Leagues Cup begins. Here’s what that looks like for Portland: 6 at home (COL, STL, SJ, NE, RSL, MIN) and 3 away (TOR, STL, LAFC). There’s only one 3-match week on the schedule (@STL, vs. RSL, vs. MIN). I wouldn’t necessarily call that soft, but it’s a verifiable 9-pack of winnable games in early summer. Trying to call this version of the Timbers a contender, pretender or the F-word (fraud) seems ridiculous. Personally, I don’t think this team needs one of those labels. But I would like to set a personal points target just to humor myself. 27 points are up for grabs, and I’d like to see the Timbers get 21. That’s a tall task, but it doesn’t seem unrealistic.

The Most Underlying of Underlying Numbers

Most advanced stats are pretty easy to understand. Not everyone is a fan of expected goals (Phil Neville included) but it’s a helpful stat to quantify the quality of created chances and shots. Passes per defensive action (PPDA) is one of my personal favorites as well. But there’s one that reigns supreme: goals added.

Goals added (G+) takes every action from a player on the ball and quantifies it with a number. It’s not the most reliable metric, but sometimes it tells a good story. And this metric (courtesy of American Soccer Analysis) is telling quite a tale in regards to Portland’s offensive struggles.

One of the categories that G+ covers is receiving. Portland has the 5th-lowest G+ score for receiving in the league. The Underlying Numbers are telling us that the Timbers aren’t receiving the ball in threatening areas. This matches the eye test. In order for the Timbers to score more goals, they have to pass the ball more often to players in dangerous areas. However, it goes both ways. Timbers players have to make dangerous runs in order to prompt dangerous passes too. Either way, this is the most fixable way for the team’s attack to get back to scoring in bunches.

PTFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI

“We want him back fit, not 90% fit.” That’s what Neville said on Tuesday about James Pantemis. Jonathan Rodriguez is set to miss his second consecutive game, but Diego Chara is completely off the injury report.

Two changes from the team that started in Orlando. Kamal Miller was rotated for that game and should be back in the starting lineup tomorrow. Felipe Mora is the team’s home striker, so Kevin Kelsy gets dropped to the bench and the opportunity to make an impact as a substitute. Although Chara is back, I think Paredes has earned another start alongside Ayala. We’re at the point in the season that the lineup picks itself, aside from an injured Rodriguez. This upcoming break will be crucial for the Uruguayan.

Tactical Preview

Attacking Set Pieces

Portland’s vastly improved set piece defense hasn’t been getting the coverage it deserves, but the team is failing to win games because of their poor goalscoring record in recent games. It’s time to talk about another easy way (in theory) for the Timbers to score goals: dead balls.

Evander’s departure severely impacted Portland’s ability to score from direct free kicks. But he’s a 99th-percentile threat from that area of play, so some regression was expected. The Timbers, however, were never that threatening from corner kicks while Evander was on the team. Sure, they found some ways to score from indirect free kicks, but it was never something they could consistently rely upon. After strengthening the team aerially in the offseason, Portland’s attacking set pieces have arguably gotten worse.

I think the key is deciding on the first-choice set piece taker (either Moreno or Da Costa) and stuffing the box on corner kicks. This doesn’t just apply to free kicks though. Neville made a point on Tuesday about that exact issue. “The big thing for us is the desire and commitment to get into the box. We want five or six guys in the box.”

ANTONY!

The Brazilian has 5 goals in 6 games against the Rapids, but has fallen into a cold stretch. Neville backed his player on Tuesday, saying that “he just needs to get back up to his level.” His level, by the way, is by making devastating runs off-the-ball and being unstoppable on it. The Rapids always bring out the best in Antony. Tomorrow’s game couldn’t come at a better time for him.

Matchday Info

Announcer Analytics

English: Jake Zivin & Ross Smith (yes, you read that correctly)

Spanish: Sammy Sadovnik & Diego Valeri

Home radio broadcast from 750 The Game: available on Apple TV

Broadcast platform: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV

Kickoff time: 7:30 PM PST

Referee Report

Chris Penso’s 2025 stats: 9 games, 23.89 fouls/game, 0.22 penalties/game, 4.89 yellows/game, 0.11 reds/game

Last Timbers game officiated: March 25, 2023 vs. LAG 0-0 D

Series History

Historical record: 15-7-11, +7 goal differential

Home record: 11-2-2, +18 goal differential

Current streak vs. COL: 1 win

Current home streak vs. COL: 3 wins (4 unbeaten)

Table Time

Portland’s immense opportunity cannot be understated. With so many teams in their hemisphere facing each other, the Timbers can climb back into the top four before they enter Game-in-Hand Land. They’re almost halfway through the MLS campaign, and have built a solid foundation for the next 18 games. But they have to win tomorrow. No excuses.

Final Whistle

It seems like the Timbers have rarely been at home in 2025. And the memories of this season at Providence Park have been rather muddled. For every Santiago Moreno bicycle kick, there has been a disappointing result against a rival. For every David Da Costa game-winner, there have been ridiculous and befuddling referee decisions. It’s almost summer, and Providence Park needs to return to fortress status. No better way to build the fort than a visit from the Colorado Rapids. The climb continues.