Minnesota United-Portland Timbers Preview (8/30)
There’s an international break on the horizon. After that window ends, the final sprint to the end of the regular season begins. But one major test awaits the Portland Timbers before the furious fall begins: a trip to Minnesota.
The Loons Report
Since allowing a last-minute equalizer to Omir Fernandez on July 19th, Minnesota (14-8-6, 50 points, 2W/5S) has been able to maintain their grip on a top-four spot in the Western Conference. In their final game before Leagues Cup, Kelvin Yeboah scored two penalty kicks to get the Loons all three points in St. Louis. Four days before that game, they traded Sang-Bin Jeong and Devin Padelford to the Raviolis. The Korean U22 forward was a cashfer, while the Loons received GAM for Padelford.
Minnesota had the same Leagues Cup opponents as Portland. After a 4-1 destruction of Queretaro, they traveled to Houston for a Club America game. Las Aguilas prevailed on penalties in one of the best games of the tournament. They weren’t completely eliminated when Atletico San Luis came to town, but lost 2-0 with a full-strength team. That game is very interesting when you look at the box score (and the highlights too). Minnesota dominated possession by a margin of 66-34, outshot ASL 19-9, and yet Los Tuneros finished the night with more shots on target (4 to 3). Minnesota was forced to play like a home team (shocking) and were unable to create quality chances in possession.
In their return to MLS play, the Rapids rolled out the same blueprint and beat the Loons 2-1 at Allianz Field. Those two losses were the first time that Minnesota lost consecutive games since last season’s 6-2 drubbing at the hands of the Galaxy in the playoffs led into a season-opening 1-0 loss at LAFC. However, those games occurred across consecutive seasons. July 2024 is the last time that Minnesota lost consecutive matches in the same campaign (3-1 loss at home to Vancouver and 2-1 loss in Carson). Since the 2024 summer transfer window, the Loons are a model of consistency. They only lost two games after the end of 2024’s Leagues Cup (not counting the playoff exit in Carson) and have limited their league losses in 2025 to one per month. Seriously. One loss in February, one in April, one in May, one in June, one in July, and one in August.
Using the “one loss per month” theory, it made perfect sense that Minnesota defeated the Seattle Sounders 1-0 at home after the Colorado defeat. Last weekend, they pulled off their masterclass. A 3-1 victory in Salt Lake City saw RSL dominate possession 68-32, lead on shots 27-9, and put more of those shots on target (9-3). But that’s exactly what the Loons want. They are a team with a game model that is perfect for road games. And it works very well away from home, as this league-wide road table can attest.
Aside from San Diego (who break all the rules when it comes to anything statistical) Minnesota is perfectly equipped to play on the road. Their game model (which I didn’t see as a possibility coming into the season given the amount of attacking talent on the roster) has a surprisingly high floor. But what does this mean in regards to their home games?
It’s still a pretty good home record, but they’re two points behind their road tally. In two of those home losses (Vancouver and San Diego) they lost the possession battle (as designed) but were beaten by better teams. The most recent home losses (LAFC and Colorado) forced the Loons to control the ball. The book is out on how to beat Minnesota: give them the ball.
MNUFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI
Randell is a youth player. The real story revolves around their summer transfer business. Tani Oluwaseyi joined Villareal for a fee of $8M. Selling your top scorer is certainly a risk, but the Loons replaced him with the top young striker in the USL Championship: Mamadou Dieng. Alexis Farina arrived on loan from Cerro Porteno in Argentina and is another body in the midfield. Two players are contenders for the top midfield addition: Dominik Fitz and Nectarios Triantis. Fitz comes from Austria Wien where he filled up the stat sheet with goals and assists. Triantis is a holding midfielder, which is arguably Minnesota’s weakest position. All of them could make their Minnesota debuts tomorrow.
This is the same lineup that started against RSL last weekend. If it isn’t broken, don’t fix it. I don’t expect any of the new signings to start. If one of them does, it’s probably Fitz in place of Rosales or Lod. Eric Ramsay has kept a consistent back five all season (with various personnel changes), but used either one or two strikers. Lately, Ramsay’s choice has been one striker with two wide attackers. Pereyra has been Minnesota’s best player, and he’s good as a central midfielder or on the right. Boxall will go from facing his international teammate to (likely) taking the same flight to New Zealand with him. Hlongwane’s reinvention as a right wingback adds another excellent piece to Minnesota’s counterattack. This was already a strong team, and the summer additions make them even stronger.
The Timbers Report
Getting a scoreless draw in San Diego is objectively a good result. But the Portland Timbers (10-8-9, 38 points, 6W/16S) have a monkey they need to get off their back. Since Minnesota United entered the league in 2017, Portland has never won a game in the Twin Cities.
This includes the two games held at TCF Bank Stadium while Allianz Field is under construction. Minnesota is the only Western Conference opponent (besides San Diego, obviously) who the Timbers have never beaten away from home. The closest they came was in 2022.
This game is notable for one reason. It’s widely considered to be the first Portland hat-trick in MLS play despite the official scoresheet. Sebastian Blanco had two goals entering the 65th minute of a 3-3 game, and he put a low cross into the box. Kemar Lawrence sticks a foot out to try and block it. What happened next is still debated to this day.
This ended up being ruled as an own goal. Regardless of whether or not Lawrence makes contact with the ball (HE DOES NOT), Dayne St. Clair spills it into his own net when it should have been an easy catch. Is it due to Lawrence’s non-existent touch? No, it’s due to St. Clair being bad at his job. In all likelihood, the correct scoring would probably have this as a St. Clair own goal rather than a Lawrence own goal. This could have been Portland’s first hat trick. Instead, it became a footnote because of what happened next. Three minutes later, Minnesota equalized. Portland led for a total of 10 minutes. It’s the closest they’ve come to winning in the Twin Cities.
International Duty
Four Timbers have received international call-ups for next week’s international window. Finn Surman will battle Australia twice in friendly matches. However, per Surman himself, these might not be so friendly. “It’s becoming a big rivalry. It’s big in cricket and rugby. Football is growing on that side of the world, and the rivalry is building. It’s exciting.”
It’s pretty safe to say that Surman is a locked-in starter for the All Whites when they take part in next year’s World Cup. However, tomorrow’s game is also a showcase for a serious international position battle: Canada’s number one goalkeeper. Maxime Crepeau’s spot has been up for grabs since last year’s Copa America. That’s rather odd considering Crepeau was one of Canada’s best players in that tournament. Since the end of that tournament, Crepeau has started 3 out of 5 friendlies, none of their 4 Nations League matches, and 1 of their 4 Gold Cup matches. The other 9 starts in that time frame have gone to Dayne St. Clair. Crepeau’s rough tenure in Portland has seemingly opened the door for competition at the international level. Canada is playing two friendlies in Europe (Romania and Wales) during this window.
Ariel Lassiter has also been called up during this international break. Costa Rica has two World Cup qualifiers (Nicaragua away and Haiti home), and look pretty likely to qualify given the automatic USA, Mexico, and Canada qualifications from CONCACAF.
The final call-up came as a bit of a surprise, but a pleasant one at that. Kevin Kelsy has never made an appearance for Venezuela at the senior level, but was included in their squad for two crucial World Cup qualifiers (Argentina away and Colombia home). He joins Josef Martinez and former West Bromwich Albion striker Salomon Rondon in the squad. Kelsy, meanwhile, is overjoyed. “Playing for the national team is the maximum for a player, for any player. I am happy for the call-up to represent my country, especially during a time where playing for my country could be very historic.”
He’s absolutely right about the “historic” part.
Venezuela has never qualified for a FIFA World Cup, and they are the only CONMEBOL nation that has never played a game on soccer’s biggest stage. They enter this weekend’s round of games (the final two) sitting 4 points back of Colombia (who they play in their second game). However, in order to keep their qualification hopes alive, they have to get a result in Argentina AT MINIMUM. Argentina’s qualification has already been secured, and so is their pot for the draw (as reigning champions, they’ll be in Pot 1). Los Albicelestes do not have anything to play for, while the Venezuelans have EVERYTHING to play for. If they accomplish their goal and Colombia/Paraguay drops points, they could beat Colombia on the final day and reach the promised land. I don’t have a rooting interest in this, but I would like to mention a cool fact. At the start of the season, the Timbers had players from every single country aside from Bolivia on their roster. That is a pretty cool fact, brought to you by a myriad of international slots.
PTFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI
Lassiter’s absence is peculiar. Every other player is accounted for.
No time for rotations or other nonsense. The best available team has to start. This includes Zuparic after his stellar outing in San Diego. James Pantemis got a clean sheet last week, but I think a Crepeau start is necessary (maybe not for the team, but for Crepeau himself) with St. Clair in the other goal. Antony didn’t start in San Diego after feeling under-the-weather in the days leading up to the game. He should be good to go tomorrow, with Velde making his first start on the right wing. A case could be made for Felipe Mora given Portland’s status as the “home team” (more on that later) but Kelsy has been Portland’s designated “away striker” throughout the season. No reason to change that for this game.
Tactical Preview
Set Pieces
This tactical preview has to begin with set pieces for obvious reasons. At the time of their last meeting, Minnesota had 15 set piece goals. That number has increased to 18 (still best in the league, but only one ahead of Philadelphia). They’ll beat you on long throw-ins. They’ll beat you on corner kicks. And, as was the case on July 19th, they’ll beat you on second crosses.
Defending recycled set pieces is the main focus for this week. Portland’s aerial duel win rate of 52.8% is the 7th-best in the league. Their main issues defending set pieces revolve around positioning. And poor positioning is the key culprit on concessions from recycled set pieces. If Timber players are in the correct positions, they will usually win the header. But their (generally) poor job of winning second balls allows second crosses to come into the box (mostly unmolested). It’s the most dangerous part of a set piece, and the Timbers will have to be flawless on redirections, recycled balls, and everything that follows the initial ball.
Visiting a Road Team
Portland will be handed the ball tomorrow, and they will be tasked with breaking down Minnesota’s low block. That’s what Neville has anticipated, and he made special note of Minnesota’s fantastic playing surface during Thursday’s press conference. This could be an excellent game to keep building chemistry between the new players and the rest of the squad. Understanding each other’s movements and tendencies will be key, especially with such a high risk-factor for turnovers (particularly middle-third turnovers). However, I would like to play devil’s advocate here for a brief second.
Doesn’t it make more sense to give the ball to the team that doesn’t want the ball? This is where Minnesota’s lapses have come. Their backline doesn’t have the straight-line speed possessed by Portland’s attackers. I wouldn’t have a problem with the Timbers trying to sit back and counterattack because they are the road team and they could absolutely play like a road team. A result is far more important than working on Neville’s overall vision, and forcing the Loons to have the ball is a strategy that would favor Portland. The downside of this approach could be more set pieces for Minnesota though. But I’m still angling towards a “cede possession, attack the space” plan for this game.
The First Goal
However, the Timbers need to score first regardless of which strategy they choose. Let’s take a look at their road record depending on who scores first:
Timbers score first: 4-0-1
Opponents score first: 0-0-5
No goals! 0-0 Draw! Yippee!: 0-3-0
No further analysis needed. The numbers speak for themselves.
Matchday Info
Announcer Analytics
English: Christian Miles & Warren Barton
Spanish: Francisco X. Rivera & Diego Tabares
Home radio broadcast from 750 The Game: not available on Apple TV
Broadcast platform: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV
Kickoff time: 5:30 PM PST
Referee Report
Jair Marrufo’s 2025 stats: 15 games, 21.93 fouls/game, 0.27 penalties/game, 3.07 yellows/game, 0.13 reds/game
Last Timbers game officiated: May 24, 2025 @ORL 1-0 L
Series History
Historical record: 5-3-10, -4 goal differential
Away record: 0-1-7, -9 goal differential
Current streak: 2 unbeaten
Current away streak: 8 winless
Table Time
Another week where the Timbers could move up into 5th but could also drop down to 8th. San Diego has already clinched a playoff spot, and the Loons could do the same with a win. Seattle will not play this week because they continue to get away with it; this time to the tune of a Leagues Cup Final with a ridiculously soft pathway to the deciding match. They’ll face Inter Miami, which will probably cause Lumen Field to actually fill up in a rare case where the Timbers don’t come to town. It’ll mostly be pink, but at least Adrian Hanauer will have more money to build Longacres 2 instead of signing a player in the summer transfer window. Other rooting interests: San Diego to beat LAFC, Philadelphia to beat Vancouver, SKC to beat the Rapids, and a draw between San Jose and Austin. RSL has the weekend off.
Final Whistle
That hideous road record in Minnesota is haunting. The Loons have always been a capable outfit even in down years, but overcoming their Gopher State hoodoo is a worthy goal for tomorrow’s game.
Cohesion is the major word being thrown around this week. With the Summer Three all expected to earn starting roles, their ability to get comfortable with each other and their teammates is the most important thing to watch in tomorrow’s game. Da Costa, Velde, and Carballo are the three players to watch in particular.
This is the last game before the international break, and the Timbers would like to enter the week off with a victory. When Jonathan Rodriguez arrived last season, he didn’t win a game with the Timbers during his first two months. Velde, Carballo, and Mati Rojas were brought here to win now. Tomorrow’s game is a perfect opportunity to end a disappointing summer on a high note. The climb continues.
