LAFC-Portland Timbers Preview (7/25)
Leagues Cup is just around the corner, and for the second year in a row the Portland Timbers are traveling to Los Angeles for their final regular-season game before the tournament begins. Unlike last year, they’re staying within the city limits. It’s time for some Friday Night Footy (trademark): LAFC vs. Portland.
The LAFC Report
After the final whistle blew on a controversial 3-3 draw between these two teams in April, LAFC lengthened their unbeaten streak (in the league) to 9 games before losing 1-0 to the Vancouver Whitecaps on June 29th. However, they went 4-5-0 during that stretch. None of their road games saw them leave with 3 points (Portland, Vancouver, LA Galaxy, and Montreal [?]). But the biggest result during the period stretching from May to June was a game that shouldn’t have been on the calendar in the first place.
In 2023, LAFC advanced to the CONCACAF Champions’ League Final, where they played Club Leon across two legs. They failed to win either game, and the Mexican team lifted the continental trophy on LAFC’s home pitch. (The Portland Timbers, by the way, beat Leon at Providence Park one year later.) As a result, Leon qualified for the new edition of the FIFA Club World Cup. However, because the governing bodies of soccer have decided that only some clubs can be punished for being a part of a multi-club model (multiple clubs across different leagues underneath the same ownership group), Leon was denied the opportunity to compete in the biggest (by number of clubs, not in the hyperbolic sense) international tournament in the world. This opened the door for the Money Match: LAFC vs. Club America at BMO Stadium for a berth in the Club World Cup. LAFC won the Money Match in extra time courtesy of a 115th-minute Denis Bouanga game-winner. As a result, LAFC became the third MLS team to enter the Club World Cup.
For all of their troubles, they went 0-1-2 in a group with Chelsea (the eventual winners), Esperance (a Tunisian team that only scored one goal during the entire tournament), and Flamengo (one of the biggest teams in Brazil). Did I mention that Esperance only scored one goal during the entire tournament? Did I also mention that their goal was scored against LAFC in a 1-0 victory? Did I forget to mention that it could’ve been 1-1 if Bouanga’s penalty kick didn’t get saved?
Since returning to league play with a 1-0 home loss to a very depleted Vancouver team, LAFC has decided to start another unbeaten streak. This current run has reached 4 games, with victories against Colorado (down a man after 6 minutes), Dallas (Dallas), and in Minnesota (gave them the ball, which prompted the Loons to self-destruct; and Bouanga scored the lone goal from the penalty spot). However, their only draw occurred in their last game against the Galaxy. After going up 2-0 by the 31st minute and 3-1 by the 67th, LAFC choked away a big win against their rivals by allowing two late goals. This included the eventual equalizer from a Maya Yoshida header in the 7th minute of second-half stoppage time. However, in fairness (I’ve been pretty mean to LAFC so far) they were down a man (center back Eddie Segura, who got sent off for putting his hands on Diego Fagundez’s throat) when Yoshida’s goal hit the back of the net.
The main story surrounding LAFC (10-6-5, 36 points, 5W/11S) is about the summer transfer window. Cengiz Under occupied a DP slot while on loan, but his spell in MLS wasn’t very productive, so he returned to his parent club before the Club World Cup. In the brief window available to CWC teams, LAFC signed his replacement from the team that they defeated to earn a berth in the tournament: Javairo Dilrosun, also on loan. The Dutch winger’s loan was set to expire when the transfer window opened, but he has been extended for one more game. Once he leaves, LAFC will have TWO open DP slots. Olivier Giroud, who was never going to live up to the hype, departed the club in July. With both of these spots open, and LAFC’s status as a “big club,” filling those spots are paramount to the Black-and-Gold’s quest for another MLS Cup. That’s the standard in Exposition Park, and it always has been since day one.
The other vacancy the club has to think about is the lame duck who is currently in the dugout. Prior to facing the Timbers in April, Steve Cherundolo announced that he would be leaving LAFC at the end of the season. Filling the DP slots without Cherundolo’s replacement in charge is a dangerous game.
However, LAFC’s floor remains among the highest in the league. Their depleted roster is always good enough to maintain course while the club searches for the match-winners that can catapult them back into the league’s elite.
LAFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI
Every single player is a defender. Chanot, Long, Dellavalle, and Segura are all center backs. Raposo and Palencia are fullbacks. Segura's absence is due to the red card he received in last weekend's Trafico. Palencia is currently in Spain going through the Green Card process.
The front six (and goalkeeper) should remain the same from last weekend's rivalry game. But the defense is where things get really interesting. I'm expecting Nielsen, a MLS NEXTPRO player, to partner Tafari at center back. Hollingshead moves over to right back to account for Palencia's absence, while Smolyakov starts at left back. These are the only healthy defenders available for the Black-and-Gold, so they have to start. Ordaz has made the starting striker role his own, but Jeremy Ebobisse is available off the bench. The Delgado-Tillman-Jesus midfield could change with Frankie Amaya being a potential starter, but I doubt it. They want to wash the taste of last weekend's draw with the Galaxy out of their mouths.
The Timbers Report
Draws usually aren’t supposed to be uplifting, but Portland’s 1-1 result from last weekend was positive considering the circumstances. Without both of their DPs for the past two games (in addition to Antony), the Timbers needed something tangible to take into tomorrow’s trip to Los Angeles. With Omir Fernandez’s late equalizer on an emotional night, something tangible has appeared. Now they have to use whatever momentum they can pull from that goal.
Road Woes
Portland’s winless streak away from home has reached 5 games following the disaster in St. Louis two weeks ago. A major takeaway from last weekend’s game revolved around the team’s mentality (don’t groan, please). Recent Timber seasons have been derailed by poor results against teams that they should have beaten. Toronto, RSL, and St. Louis all fall into that pattern. After a strong start to the season on the road with victories against Colorado, SKC, and the Galaxy, Portland has failed to pack the same “big-game mentality” on each of their road trips (barring the Open Cup victory at Starfire).
Many points have been made throughout the years about Portland’s (9-7-7, 34 points, 6W/14S) strong home-field advantage. Last weekend, Omir Fernandez spoke about the crowd that wouldn’t stop singing no matter how badly the game was going. At home, the Timbers draw on the energy of the crowd to help them finish games. But on the road, especially in a hostile environment like BMO Stadium, there won’t be the same crowd pop. Talk about tactics all you want, but the Timbers need to treat tomorrow’s game like it’s a cup final.
During this putrid stretch of road games, the Timbers have failed to finish their biggest chances. Against a team like LAFC, who will punish the slightest of mistakes, Portland needs to find their shooting boots again. Especially Felipe Mora and Kevin Kelsy. “We have to get our center forwards scoring. There’s no hiding away from the fact that our center forwards haven’t scored and that’s what makes me really, really positive and excited. Once they start scoring, we’re going to be a real top team. That’s how important they are to us. That’s how important their goals will be to the team,” Neville said on Wednesday. But here’s the bigger issue: on the road, those center forwards average about 1-2 major chances during each game.
In order for the strikers to begin scoring again, they need to get adequate service. When the Timbers are away from home, that service becomes even more scarce than it does at home. The 2025 Timbers aren’t creating chances in bunches like they were last year. It means that every single opportunity gets magnified more than it should be. Create more chances, score more goals. Pretty simple.
A TRANSACTION!
No, the Portland Timbers haven’t signed a new player, but I am beyond thrilled to report the following: the Portland Timbers have acquired an international roster slot from Inter Miami for $135K GAM.
This is a pretty run-of-the-mill roster transaction, but there’s so much more to unpack. Essentially, the Timbers have received $335K GAM from Inter Miami in exchange for one international roster slot. How does that work? Let’s delve into the timeline.
January: Portland sends Miami an international slot for $200K GAM
April: Portland sends Miami an international slot for $270K GAM
July: Miami sends Portland an international slot for $135K GAM
Outstanding work. Now the Timbers have two international slots (Araujo’s vacated slot and today’s acquisition) to work with during the summer transfer window.
PTFC Injury Report & Projected Starting XI
Da Costa trained in full on Wednesday, but is officially questionable for tomorrow's game. That tracks with Neville's "50/50" estimate from Wednesday's press conference. Zuparic is a new addition with a hip injury, but his status is also questionable. The Croatian was not on the field Wednesday.
This lineup is entirely precautionary and officially a worst-case scenario team. If Da Costa isn't cleared to play, I expect Lassiter to start in his place. However, a sneaky pick would be Gage Guerra. He wouldn't exactly be playing through the middle, but he could do a job as a channel-runner and box-crasher. Mora should get the start on the road, with Kevin Kelsy acting as the battering ram for a backline with no available like-for-like substitutes. Kamal Miller is the favorite to replace Zuparic, but I'd like to see him in the middle of the back three to allow Fory and Surman to defend the wider areas. I think that role would suit him better than the LCB he usually plays in the back three. Paredes and Ayala should start in the midfield. The energy Paredes brings (particularly with box-crashing and counterpressing) needs to be shown from the opening whistle. Crepeau will face his former team in his former home stadium for the second year in a row. If Da Costa and Zuparic are ready to go, they should replace Lassiter and Miller (respectively) in the starting lineup.
Tactical Preview
Counterattacks
Both teams can use counters to their advantage, but LAFC thrives on them. Denis Bouanga is the most dangerous open-field player in the entire league (yes, more dangerous than the All-Star playing hooky down in Miami). Juan Mosquera is very familiar with the danger that Bouanga poses. “He’s honestly one of the best players in MLS. Since I’ve been here, we’ve been developing a good relationship but on the field we already know what he’s capable of. He’s probably the most important player that LA has, but we will focus on us getting the result.”
One player isn’t enough to contain Bouanga, so expect to see Santiago Moreno or Finn Surman offering support as an additional defender when he has the ball. That extra responsibility might open gaps for other LAFC attackers, but the danger presented by Bouanga is troublesome enough to take the risk.
Meanwhile, Portland’s counterattacks need to have urgency above all else. Speed is the best way to take advantage of an inexperienced center back corps, and the Timbers have been reluctant to go full-tilt on counters since the season’s early months. You know what happened when they took the handbrake off on counters? They won road games. Simple as that.
Where to Attack?
Portland will also see a fair amount of possession in this game because Cherundolo has been keen to put numbers behind the ball. I’d like to see them try to attack through the middle of the pitch in order to find gaps in LAFC’s midfield and center backs. Usually, they utilize the wide areas to deliver crosses. But the skills of Moreno, Da Costa (maybe), and Mora all trend towards an attacking corps that can play through the middle if the timing and spacing is correct. Either way, they need to convert their chances. But I’d like to see where the most box entries come from when Portland is on the ball. Bouanga, by the way, has the most touches inside the penalty area in the entire league (171). Portland’s highest ranker in this category is Moreno, who has 76. That ranks 39th in MLS. However, Moreno and Da Costa rank 22nd and 23rd (respectively) for touches in the attacking third. Portland needs to find the best ways to get into the box, and this game (ironically) is a great opportunity to work on attacking patterns of play.
Matchday Info
Announcer Analytics
English: Chris Wittyngham & Lori Lindsey
Spanish: Rodolfo Landeros & Mariano Trujillo
Home radio broadcast from 750 The Game: unavailable on Apple TV
Broadcast platform: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV
Kickoff time: 7:30 PM PST
Referee Report
Armando Villareal’s 2025 stats: 7 games, 22.43 fouls/game, 0.57 penalties/game, 3.43 yellows/game, 0.14 reds/game
Last Timbers game officiated: October 6th, 2024 vs. FCD 0-0 D
Here’s a quote from Neville during Wednesday’s press conference: “I think when you play against LAFC, particularly in LA, you need a strong referee. They get a lot of penalty kicks, a lot of decisions going their way, so I think that’s a really important detail.”
This might seem like a preloaded excuse, but it’s worth noting that all three of Portland’s matches against LAFC during Neville’s tenure have involved a controversial refereeing decision. Two red cards in 2024’s series, and the late penalty decision against Diego Chara in April’s 3-3 draw. It isn’t exactly brave to say this, but it’s certainly a strong message to bring it up unprompted in a pre-match presser. Villareal was the center referee for MLS Cup in 2021; a game that featured a lot of physical play and a lot of time-wasting by the eventual winners. He’s an official that regularly gets the call for the biggest stages in the league. The referee in April’s game (Guido Gonzales Jr.) was in charge of last weekend’s 3-3 El Trafico draw. He left the field underneath a hail of beer cans.
Series History
Historical record: 6-7-7, -4 goal differential
Away record: 2-3-5, -7 goal differential
Current streak vs. LAFC: 3 winless
Current road streak vs. LAFC: 4 winless
Table Time
LAFC, with two games in hand, is going to keep climbing the table. That much is certain. But tomorrow’s game could have a huge say in whether or not the Timbers make the top four. However, a loss could see the “Wild Card Pack” gain more ground on Portland. A win isn’t necessary, but any amount of points absolutely is.
Final Whistle
Tomorrow’s game is the biggest road game of the season so far. A competitive performance could go a long way. But it’s also worth noting that the metaphorical “first half” of the season comes to a close with this game. Leagues Cup is just around the corner, and the summer transfer window just opened. A good result would continue the momentum from the Minnesota game. However, as fans have seen this year, momentum doesn’t travel. Tomorrow’s outcome is dependent on that momentum and energy from last weekend making the trip along with the team. The climb continues.
