LA Galaxy-Portland Timbers Preview (4/27)

*Cover photo credit to Sean Meagher/The Oregonian.*

The Portland Timbers haven’t lost a game since March 8th. Their current streak sits at 6 without a loss, with 3 of those on the road. It’s a very good run of form from a team that tends to start slowly. The Los Angeles Galaxy, this weekend’s opponents, are achieving the polar opposite.

The Galaxy Report

After The Asterisk, LA traveled to Minnesota and scored a late equalizer to salvage a point. That’s a good result. However, their collapse at home against Orlando the following week was undoubtedly a low point in a season full of them. A dubious penalty call (eyeroll) allowed the Lions to tie the game. But a horrific error from John McCarthy gifted Orlando all three points. I think the Galaxy did themselves proud in their CCC Quarterfinal tie against Tigres despite losing 3-2 on aggregate (with a 2-0 loss to RSL sandwiched between). A 1-1 draw with Houston (technically a salvage point as the Galaxy went down to 10 men) and a 1-0 loss in Austin are the Galaxy’s most recent results.

That winless run of form drops their record to 0-3-6 (3 points, 15W/30S). Across all competitions in 2025, they’ve only won a single game (4-1 home win against Herediano on March 12th). Is it down to bad luck, or are they simply unable to replace Riqui Puig?

Puig is definitely a missing piece of the puzzle, but the most impactful loss (at least in the short-term) is actually Gaston Brugman. The Uruguayan’s combination of excellent passing and defensive solidity was greatly underappreciated during his time in Carson. Mark Delgado’s departure has also left a massive hole in LA’s midfield. The major minutes have been taken by Isaiah Parente (not very good), Tucker Lepley (also not very good), Edwin Cerrillo (still a solid player but asked to do a lot more), Diego Fagundez (not a central midfielder), and Lucas Sanabria (highly-rated U22 but working his way back to full health after injury). It makes the early-season release of Sean Davis even more questionable.

The Galaxy were punished for last season’s success, but Will Kuntz should’ve had some kind of plan to bolster the midfield. Marco Reus has been the forgotten man. He returned from injury last weekend, and could be healthy enough to start. That’s a lot of cap space dedicated to (frankly) dead wood. However, the return of Joseph Paintsil to partner with Gabriel Pec out wide should’ve been a big boost to LA’s attack. The Ghanaian has 0g/0a in his first four games of 2025. Are the Galaxy really this bad? Can the underlying numbers redeem them?

This is a reminder that stats and data should only be used in combination with the eye test and actual results. We’re going to use two stats: expected goal differential and expected points. Both come from American Soccer Analysis’ database.

In terms of xGD, the Galaxy stink. Their mark of -8.8 is the worst in the league. There’s still underperformance there (actual goal differential of -10). What about expected points? More bad numbers and more underperformance (6.3 xP and 3 actual points earned). In this case, the underlying numbers are nicer to the Galaxy! But they’re still bad.

LAG Injury Report and Projected Starting XI

Full strength Galaxy aside from Puig. And they’re desperate for their first win.

This is the best lineup that Greg Vanney can start tomorrow. However, there are a couple of positional battles worth getting into. John Nelson is the more defensive option at left back, but I think Aude gets the start after a poor Nelson outing in Austin. Yoshida returns to the team after missing most of April with a hamstring injury. A double pivot of Sanabria and Cerrillo is the best option for Vanney. However, the number 10 role is a toss-up between Fagundez and Reus. My gut says Fagundez. Anything less than a win will be unacceptable to the Galaxy faithful.

The Timbers Report

Quick programming note: I will not be discussing the end of the Primary Transfer Window in this article. A full breakdown is coming next week.

Meanwhile, the Portland Timbers are absolutely flying. Well, not exactly, but a streak like this hasn’t been seen since 2018. From April 14th to August 4th, the Timbers didn’t lose a single game in MLS. That run constituted 15 games. The stretch from April 14th until May 19th (games 5-10) was the most recent time that the Timbers achieved such a strong run of form so early in the season.

But the sustainability of this run has been called into question since it began. Time to look at the underlying numbers.

Does it shock you that the Portland Timbers (4-3-2, 15 points, 4W/9S) have the 4th-worst expected goal differential in the entire league (-4.92)? It certainly raised my eyebrows. They’re below teams like Montreal (winless), New England (2 open play goals in 8 games), and Houston (28th in the Shield standings). Overperformance is the culprit (Culprit? Like it’s a bad thing?) for Portland’s strong start. Their GD-xGD differential (lots of differentials there) is the 3rd-highest in the league. In terms of expected points, the Timbers should be 26th out of 30 MLS teams in the Shield standings (below Montreal and Houston).

I don’t think it’s the right time to dig into the causes of this overperformance. If this pattern continues over the next couple of weeks, then I think it’s officially Worrisome. But tomorrow’s game is the 10th of the season, and key contributors like Jonathan Rodriguez just returned to the team. One quick note: the Timbers are outperforming their xG by 3.1 (2nd-most in the league).

Portland’s 3-match unbeaten run away from home has been the most impressive part of the season so far. After a year where they only won 3 games on the road, they have an opportunity to match that before the calendar flips to May. I asked Kamal Miller about how the team’s confidence changes after a good run of road results. Here’s what he had to say: “We’re definitely a confident group right now. All of our attackers and players who get the job done up there are full of confidence. On the backline, we’re starting to get more and more cohesive as a unit and put together good 90 minute performances. When you have these kinds of records on the road it’s just to go into the game fearless and keep it rolling.”

PTFC Injury Report and Projected Starting XI

After getting subbed off at halftime, Antony enters tomorrow’s game as questionable. Diego Chara is also listed on the injury report for the first time since his appendectomy in late 2023. The Timbers had two straight weeks of clean injury reports. Not anymore, but neither injury seems too serious.

Let’s get one thing out of the way: Ortiz would be starting even without Chara’s injury status. It’s a perfect game for him to start. Antony’s status is a bit tricky. Neville said that Antony is fully healthy and will make the trip, but I think it’s a good game to use him as a supersub. Rodriguez should make his first start of the season. Omir Fernandez, recently acquired from Colorado, is another potential option on the left if Rodriguez is still on a minutes counter. Although Mora had a brace last weekend, I’m working on a theory that Kelsy is Portland’s “road” striker. I won’t be elaborating unless he starts tomorrow’s game.

Tactical Preview

Direct Attacks

I touched on this in my recap of the LAFC game, but I’d love to see the Timbers drive forward with intensity against the winless Galaxy. The only downside is potential exhaustion with all the running back and forth. However, the Timbers have depth. A direct approach can work with fresh legs on the bench. Given LA’s defensive weaknesses all over the backline and midfield, Portland doesn’t have to commit to only wide counters. Use the entire field.

Fullback Positioning

The addition of Jimer Fory has been a boost to the locker room and the team’s play on the field. However, he has another hard assignment this weekend with Gabriel Pec on his flank. Here’s a theory on how the Timbers solve for it.

This isn’t pretty, but it illustrates the idea. Despite Fory’s quality going forward, it’s more important for him to stay back and focus on defending in this game. It’s also worth noting that if he keeps Pec in front of him the chances of another booking significantly decreases. The Timbers have a lockdown left back. I’m looking forward to another stellar defensive outing from Fory against one of the best wingers in the league.

Matchday Info

Announcer Analytics

English: Josh Eastern and Jamie Watson

Spanish: Oscar Salazar and Jaime Macias

Radio broadcast on 750 The Game: available on the airwaves, not on Apple TV

Broadcast platform: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV

Kickoff time: 6:00 PM PST

Referee Report

Filip Dujic’s 2025 stats: 8 games, 28.38 fouls/game, 0.5 penalties/game, 3.88 yellows/game, 0.13 reds/game

Last Timbers game officiated: March 9, 2025 @NSH 2-0 L

Quick notes: Dujic has gained notoriety for his “dramatic” VAR announcements. It feels like cheering for a cop for making a basic arrest. That’s their job, and no extra pizzazz is needed. In other news, Guido Gonzales Jr. (last week’s center referee) is in charge of this weekend’s Columbus-San Jose game. I didn’t think his performance was bad enough to warrant a relegation to 4th official duties or a removal from game duty entirely. But it was bad. Meanwhile, the referee from The Asterisk (Lukasz Szpala) will be the center referee for Miami-Dallas on Sunday.

Series History

Historical record vs. LAG: 13-10-14, +5 goal differential

Record at Dignity Health Sports Park: 3-5-10, -13 goal differential

Current streak vs. LAG: 2 unbeaten

Current streak vs. LAG at Dignity Health Sports Park: 5 winless

Table Time

This table is so beautifully weird. Austin occupies second place with a goal differential of -1. 10th-placed San Jose has a positive goal differential. However, only two teams have lengthy unbeaten streaks. Minnesota’s is the longest in the conference at 8 games. The Timbers are right on their heels with 6. The Loons host Vancouver tomorrow. It’s a heavy week of conference matchups (aside from Dallas, who travel to Miami). Points will be dropped, and the Timbers could end the weekend in second place. However, they could drop as far as 8th. It’s still very early in the season, but the Timbers rarely stack points like this in the beginning of the new campaign.

Final Whistle

You never want to be the team that is the victim of a “first.” Last weekend, the Timbers were on the receiving end of Olivier Giroud’s first MLS goal. They were very close to potentially becoming the first victim of Sporting Kansas City, but St. Louis stepped in the week before to take the bullet (plus Portland actually won the game). Now the Timbers could be the team that gives the Galaxy their first league win in 2025. Simply put, they cannot let that happen.

There is an aspect of revenge heading into this game. Prior to this moment, I’ve only mentioned The Asterisk twice. I’m sure that the team has gone over that game in detail throughout this week. The Galaxy are at their lowest; so soon after their crowning achievement at the end of 2024. That was the last MLS game they won. The Timbers need to send them deeper into the shadow realm. The climb continues.