It Isn't 2024 Anymore

It’s never easy to travel to Carson, California. Prior to tonight’s game, the Timbers hadn’t won in Carson since 2020. Last year, the eventual MLS Cup champion LA Galaxy went an entire season without losing at home. However, their 2025 campaign has gone in the complete opposite direction. The Portland Timbers rocked up to Carson and sent the Galaxy deeper into the shadow realm with a 4-2 victory.

Recap

The first half featured a lot of settled play and Joseph Paintsil’s persistence. Throughout the first 45 minutes, Paintsil routinely tried to make something happen on the Galaxy’s left side. However, the combination of Juan Mosquera, Finn Surman, and Joao Ortiz held him in check. The first shot on target for either team also resulted in the game’s first goal. Combination play between Mosquera and Santiago Moreno on Portland’s right side led to a shross from Mosquera going across the face of goal. However, at the back post, Antony turned on the jets and kept the ball in play. The Brazilian, feeling a little frisky, chipped the ball over Miki Yamane and crossed it into the center of the box. David Da Costa was on hand, and his volley couldn’t be handled by John McCarthy, who spilled it into his own net. 1-0 to Portland, 38 minutes in. The Timbers took this 1-0 lead into halftime.

Things began to get crazy in the second half, because normal games are boring and the viewing audience craved excitement and stress. In the 53rd minute, Jimer Fory stonewalled Gabriel Pec in LA’s box. This led to a very fun sequence of events. First, Pec decided to pass the ball back to Carlos Garces. But Da Costa was in the way, so Pec was actually passing the ball to Da Costa. That’s so nice of him. Every player deserves a chance to play with the ball. After a couple of touches, Da Costa found Ortiz in plenty of space. That led to a through ball to Antony on the left wing. Suddenly, it was a 3v3 breakaway. Antony’s cross nutmegged Zanka and suddenly Moreno had enough space to slot it past McCarthy at the far post. 2-0. But what about a third? In the 63rd minute, Antony chipped another Galaxy defender, but this frisky touch was actually a pass to Da Costa. The Brazilian blew past Lucas Sanabria to receive the return pass, and centered the ball to Kevin Kelsy. The Venezuelan decided to test McCarthy at the near post with a first-time shot from just inside the box. With an assist from the crossbar, the lead was extended to 3. However, the Galaxy scored two goals in two minutes to cut the deficit to 3-2 by the 70th minute. More on that later. The next goal was absolutely crucial, and the Timbers scored it. Well, Jonathan Rodriguez scored it from the penalty spot in the 76th minute. More on THAT later. After Rodriguez’s penalty made the scoreline 4-2, the Timbers successfully killed the game off (aside from a late Maya Yoshida header that hit the crossbar from point-blank range) to win their second consecutive road game. Through 10 games, Portland has 18 points. It’s the most successful start in their MLS history.

The Two Minutes of Terror

Phil Neville was not happy after tonight’s game. And honestly, I can’t blame him. After going up 3-0, the Timbers allowed two goals in quick succession to hand the desperate Galaxy a lifeline. Let’s break them down.

We begin in the 67th minute with a turnover at the top of the box and Lucas Sanabria on the ball. Portland will be facing a counterattack with a 3v5 advantage.

Christian Ramirez (the white jersey in the center circle) received Sanabria’s pass and played it to Marco Reus. Portland has six recovering defenders, and Antony makes seven. Juan Mosquera is a little high on the right side, but it’s balanced by Jimer Fory staying deeper.

Reus takes a few progressive touches (God, that sounds so pretentious, I’m sorry) and the space opens for a through ball to Joseph Paintsil. Now Mosquera’s positioning becomes a problem. Joao Ortiz has taken a little bit of time to make his way over to Reus, and there could’ve been a bit more hustle from the Ecuadorean to properly challenge the ball-carrier before this pass is played. Either way, the movie is familiar. Riqui Puig did this exact thing countless times last season. Mosquera also did this exact thing countless times last season. Let’s see what happens next.

The difference between these two frames is Finn Surman. In the prior image, it looked like the Kiwi would be in a good spot to potentially challenge Paintsil. But Kamal Miller, wearing the captain’s armband, has shifted over to defend the ball-carrier. Surman realized this and is rushing to vacate the space that Miller has emptied. Is this good or bad? Well, as you’re about to see, Miller’s positioning has limited the angles that Paintsil has to choose from. He could opt to keep running at goal, which he certainly would be doing if Miller didn’t make this switch. Or he could do what comes next.

This is Paintsil’s first touch during this sequence. The ball did all the work. Per my recollection, this was the first time during the game that Paintsil attempted one of these first-time crosses. Miller is absolutely correct to assume that the Ghanaian would try to carry the ball here. Heck, if I was Greg Vanney, I’d be begging him to carry the ball into the box. But one thing stopped him: Fory. In order for this chance to be created, Paintsil has to remove the Fory threat. So he crosses it to Ramirez. By the way, do you notice anything odd about this picture?

Credit has to be given where credit is due. Paintsil does everything right in this sequence. He lets the ball work for him, makes a smart decision, and executes perfectly. By making that decision at that moment, he also takes Portland’s best box defender (Surman) completely out of the play. Fory tries his hardest to make contact with the ball, but Paintsil’s delivery leaves him stretching at air. What he can do, not consciously anyway, is provide enough (legal) interference on Ramirez to potentially screw up the veteran striker’s vision. Credit has to be given to Ramirez for a quality finish. This isn’t easy to do. But he executes it perfectly and puts Pantemis on a two-second delay in the process. Unfortunately, although this play is over, there’s one more screenshot that requires further viewing.

Mannnnn, I don’t know about that. I’m perfectly OK with the call on the field standing, and I was in real time. I didn’t realize this in real time, and neither did the linesman. Either way, it’s awfully close.

Goal number two has more problems than goal number one.

The first item of note is the game clock. It’s almost two full minutes after Ramirez found the back of the net. The second item of note is the Galaxy’s positioning. They’re desperate. So they’re pressing. Finally, Surman is going to clear this ball. I hope he gets enough on it to send it into LA’s half.

Ugh. Surman and the ball are both in the frame. The Galaxy now have plenty of bodies forward.

Surman’s clearance falls to John Nelson, who keeps the ball in the air and exchanges an aerial one-two with Reus. David Ayala and Ortiz are fully engaged in the play. Mosquera (once again very high up) is spectating.

The ball leaks out of the crowd, and Gabriel Pec is on hand to make his most meaningful contribution of the match: he reacts a half-second before Miller. The roles, meanwhile, have reversed from the crowd of green shirts. Ayala is anticipating the pass back to Ramirez (which is coming) and has already begun to race towards the striker. Ortiz, meanwhile, is now in reaction mode. Mosquera guesses correctly what is about to happen, and looks like he’s moving into position to stop it.

Inexplicably, Mosquera stops his run for a half second. Ramirez knows what he wants to do with the ball. Ayala also knows what Ramirez wants to do with the ball. Reus (who has ghosted past Ortiz and is now in an excellent position to receive Ramirez’s inevitable dangerous pass) has his arm out. Mosquera is flat-footed.

In this situation, Mosquera has to go inside. Yes, there’s a wild Paintsil on the left, but covering the middle is far more urgent than the Ghanaian aura-farming on the wing. I don’t care if it causes a slight shift in Portland’s backline. It’s the heads-up play and far more important to do than leaving the channel wide open.

One last frame for analysis. Reus actually takes a bad touch and has to reach behind him in order to get the shot off. Pantemis is caught off-guard, and probably should’ve saved this. Either way, this is a very 2024-esque goal for the Timbers to concede. It’s also a very 2024-esque goal for the Galaxy to score. During these two minutes, both teams reminded their fans what last season looked like. For the Timbers, it was mental mistakes at the back. And for the Galaxy, it was a brilliant attack that punished those mistakes in severe fashion. However, tonight’s final score made a statement for both teams: it isn’t 2024 anymore.

Asterisk Revenge?

After several weeks of referee criticism, it’s time for the tide to turn. Today’s game was officiated how a soccer game should be.

Earlier today, I came across this tweet from Chris Lepkowski (the host of The Liquidator, a West Brom podcast).

The quoted tweet is referencing Real Madrid’s appalling behavior yesterday during the Copa del Rey Final against FC Barcelona. It got me thinking, particularly after repeated weeks of my own railing against referees. Expositing about the various failures of officials is probably my least favorite thing to do. But some weeks, criticism is warranted. I would like to live in the world that Lepkowski is describing here. Where all elements of a game directly reside in the players’ control. It is never that easy. But tonight, we saw a look into that alternate universe. And it was glorious.

The invention and application of VAR should be looked at as a mistake. The constant demand for perfection in sports leads to more imperfect outcomes than the perfection that's advertised. Tonight's game featured zero VAR reviews and a referee whose parameters were easy to follow and understand. 50/50 challenged were allowed. Any sign of physicality wasn't punished. Four yellow cards were shown, with three of them for stoppage-related incidents. Two of those were dissent, the other was excessive celebration. All were correct. The lone yellow shown for a foul was also the correct call. Filip Dujic's performance tonight is a model of what officiating should be.

The Championship has been exempt from the VAR plague. Every weekend, I tune in to watch West Bromwich Albion ruin my mornings. Over the past few months, this has been a product of the players' own performances rather than officiating. Sure, there are bad referees in every league, but there are also bad players. My focus remains on the bad players rather than bad calls, even if the referee is having a 'mare. It's easier to give officials the benefit of the doubt if every single call has to occur in real time without the safety net of VAR. Sure, some obvious calls might be missed (directing your attention to Cedric Kipré's handball on the goal line against QPR last season) but is it really worth persisting with an imperfect system that promises perfection and never delivers?

I could write an entire article on VAR (and maybe I will) but tonight's game stands out because of Jonathan Rodriguez's penalty kick. Before the actual foul is discussed, I'd like to compare it to The Asterisk in order to assess whether or not it is a true "make-up" call.

Based on the circumstances, it is not a “make-up” call. I would define a “make-up” call in two parts: a decision that greatly benefits the Timbers that leaves the entire league (including their rivals) completely bewildered because it’s completely wrong AND the call in question either protecting a win or handing the Timbers a win. Both criteria must be met in order for the “make-up” call to be properly identified. None of these definitions can be applied to this penalty.

There is contact here. Does Rodriguez sell it? Of course he does. Sometimes you need to sell in order to get the referee to buy. But if there wasn’t any contact, and Rodriguez was diving, surely VAR would’ve intervened and told Dujic to go to the monitor? Based on the short amount of time that VAR took to confirm the penalty, it’s pretty safe to assume that Dujic did get the call right. I do not have an issue with this. My bigger issue is with every foul in the box going right to the penalty spot even if it didn’t have an impact on a potential attack. That’s not a referee or a VAR issue; I just don’t like the rules. More indirect free-kicks in the box, please. But, according to the rules (which everyone must follow otherwise anarchy will commence) this is a foul and, therefore, a penalty.

Greg Vanney, who is not having a very good year, was not very happy with the way tonight’s game was officiated because it didn’t benefit his team and their incessant flopping. By the way, because this penalty was scored in the 76th minute, it didn’t consign the Galaxy to defeat! They had 14 minutes PLUS an additional 9 minutes of stoppage time to find two goals! THEY SCORED TWO GOALS IN TWO MINUTES NOT EVEN 10 MINUTES BEFORE THIS PENALTY KICK WAS AWARDED! I didn’t think too many calls went against LA. Heck, their first goal was offside, and I didn’t mind it because it was cool! None of the calls that went Portland’s way directly affected the outcome of the game! After a season where the Timbers have had to deal with constant result-affecting decisions, hearing this from the coach of the defending champs who are playing like a Spoon contender is really rich! However, hearing it from their fans is a different story.

Those poor Galaxy fans, who have to deal with another season of trophy contention (the Wooden Spoon), and their beloved Lakers down 3-1 to the Minnesota Timberwolves, and the deferred-contract appreciating Dodgers only a half game out of division lead. Won’t someone feel bad for them? Where is the sympathy for that fine group of people, who resorted to saying a banned chant in the dying minutes of tonight’s game to signal their frustration? Will someone feel sorry for Riqui Puig, who has publicly taken to social media to defend his head coach that’s currently on the hot seat not even FIVE months removed from a title? It seems like there is no more sympathy for these beleaguered individuals. Won’t someone think of them?

Maybe I’m being too sarcastic (no I’m not, my sarcasm has no limit), but I think the most memorable lyric from 2024 is a helpful parallel. “They not like us,” spoken clearly and repetitively by LA’s patron saint Kendrick Lamar. This was the Galaxy’s battle cry last year as they torched the league en route to their sixth title. Now it’s Portland’s turn. Only an Asterisk kept the Timbers from doing the double over their competitive rivals. Can the Galaxy perform a true Chumbawamba? Will they be able to get back up again? Can they Tubthump their way to the playoff line? It doesn’t look very likely.

Meanwhile, the Portland Timbers are winning the games that they’re supposed to win. They’ve been Bachman-Turner Overdriving for the past two months. And, at the very least, you have to hand it to them (non-derogatory). Although I don’t believe in trap games away from home in this league, tonight’s fixture had all the makings of one. Not only did they survive, they took all three points and scored four goals. Awesome.

That was a Final Whistle-esque rant, but our regular programming is about to continue. Players played, and their contributions deserve a subjective number. It’s Player Ratings time!

Player Ratings

James Pantemis: 7.4

I think Pantemis could've done better on LA's second goal. Marco Reus's chance was measured at 0.54 xG, with 0.45 xG attributed to the actual finish. That's a save that needs to be made. But he made the other saves he needed to make. I thought his distribution was a little shaky today, but he also made a couple of smart passes. In addition, he made a couple of big saves late in the game. Another solid outing, but nothing spectacular.

Juan Mosquera: 6.1

During the past two weeks, Mosquera has had to face Paintsil and Denis Bouanga. Those two are arguably the most dangerous wide attackers in the entire league (although Paintsil’s teammate on the opposite flank would beg to differ). I’ve already highlighted Mosquera’s (poor) contributions to both of LA’s goals. Unfortunately, unlike last week, he didn’t contribute enough in the attack to counteract some poor defending. And he wasn’t that bad last week either!

Finn Surman: 8

I’m starting to enjoy the weekly clips of Surman chasing down opposing DP wingers. This week’s victim was Joseph Paintsil. The Kiwi’s emergence at right center back is a perfect option to cover for Mosquera’s proclivity for getting forward. His positioning, meanwhile, is already veteran-quality. He instinctively gets between opposing attackers and the goal, and has the speed to keep up with them.

Kamal Miller: 8.3

For the first time as a Timber, the Canadian center back wore the captain’s armband. And he responded with a captain’s performance. Miller did not misplace a single pass aside from one long ball, giving him a 98% pass accuracy with a 41/42 statline. Outstanding. On the other hand, it’s time to talk about his defense. Specifically, his sliding challenges. I’ve never seen him screw up the timing on one of those since he joined the Timbers. They’re the riskiest types of tackles to attempt because not only are you risking a serious foul, your recovery will be delayed if the tackle misses. Miller didn’t complete a sliding tackle tonight, but his sliding clearance of Yamane’s through ball to Pec in the 62nd minute gave the Timbers the platform to score their 3rd goal. He had a tough start to the season and really had to work hard to earn his starting role back after the red card. With so much competition at the center back spot, he’s had to keep performing at a high level every week. Tonight was his best game of the season. And he did it as the captain.

Jimer Fory: 8.4

This picture is going to get a lot of use throughout the rest of the year.

In my preview of tonight’s game, I singled out how Portland’s fullbacks should be set up to deal with LA’s wide threats. My thesis: Fory should stay back to keep Pec in front of him and not risk any yellow card opportunities. Lo and behold, that’s exactly what the Colombian did. And he didn’t pick up a yellow card either! He did pick his spots to go forward as well. By the way, Portland’s positional back three (Fory, Miller, and Surman) completed a combined 118/124 passes. Nearly flawless in possession.

Joao Ortiz: 8.2

In his second start in the 4-2-3-1, Ortiz’s quality was everywhere. He didn’t commit a single foul (even though he probably should have, as I discussed earlier) and completed 38/39 passes. He’s getting more confident and developing more chemistry with his teammates. I thought his substitution in the 70th minute was rather odd, as it didn’t look like he was dealing with an injury. It’s even more odd given Neville’s post-game comments calling him the best player on the pitch. By the way, did you notice that Diego Chara didn’t make the matchday squad due to injury? Ortiz did a wonderful impersonation of the Colombian tonight.

David Ayala: 8.9

Guys, I need to be honest with you. I’m running out of words to describe David Ayala. I can’t keep talking about his excellent tackling (more spider-tackles today, by the way) or his outstanding passing range, or his continued development into an asset on set pieces. It’s becoming repetitive. Repeating myself is my least favorite thing to do. Ayala has developed consistency on the pitch and in his blurb each week in these articles. Maybe next week I can find some fun adjectives. Here’s one as a teaser: exemplary. I would like to talk about the leap he has made mentally over the past year. He’s becoming less reactive and more anticipatory. By the way, he is still 22 years old, and a new contract extension is hopefully around the corner.

Santiago Moreno: 9.1

Two-way Santi is my favorite Santi. He performed both his attacking and defensive duties with poise and confidence. When I see him score goals by running through the middle of the defense and making space for himself in the box, I always wonder why he doesn’t do that more. Is it all of the recovery runs that drain his energy? Or is it his own style of wanting the ball at his feet? Either answer is valid, and Moreno’s second goal in as many matches certainly was as well.

Antony: 9.5

I don’t need to say the quote again. You all should know it by now.

The quest for the elusive hat-trick will continue, but the Ass-hat (assist hat-trick, for clarity) should be treated with reverence as well. He joins Diego Valeri and Rodney Wallace as the only Timbers with an Ass-hat in MLS play. Congratulations to him. All three of his assists were earned, and his outstanding start to 2025 has seen two different bursts of plenty.

Antony has four goals in 2025. Three of them came in consecutive games (@COL and vs. HOU). Antony has five assists in 2025. All of them came in three consecutive games (@SKC, vs. LAFC, and @LAG). That combined output of 4g/5a gives him 9 total goal contributions. Folks, Antony is tied with Charlotte’s Pep Biel for the most goal contributions in MLS.

David Da Costa: 8.4

Portuguese Dave scored his first open-play goal in a Timbers uniform, and it was an excellent bit of skill. It might surprise you that he didn’t create a single chance, but he was credited with a secondary assist on Kelsy’s goal. I find it really funny that the Timbers have a winger who likes playing centrally (Moreno) and a number 10 who likes beating defenders on the wing (Da Costa). I asked him if he felt any pressure to score a goal tonight. He said that he didn’t feel any pressure to score and he just wanted to help the team win. After the game, Neville said that the current squad is “the most humble group I’ve ever coached.” Da Costa is the poster boy of that statement. It’s clear that he’s adapting quickly on and off the pitch.

Kevin Kelsy: 7.7

Kelsy showed his youth in the first half. Although his technical skill with the ball at his feet is eye-opening for a player of his size, the right decisions about when to try and dribble out of pressure still need to be properly learned. I also thought he deserved a yellow card for a reckless challenge in the 43rd minute. But a lot of that can be forgiven based on the quality of the goal that he scored. Well, not really, but the finish was outstanding. It marks the second consecutive road game in which the Venezuelan has found the back of the net. By the way, he scored 6 goals in 29 matches with Cincinnati last year. He’s already two-thirds of the way to that mark through 10 games in a Timbers shirt.

Jonathan Rodriguez: 8.5

Bringing a DP off the bench is never a bad thing. Rodriguez’s introduction was needed in order for chaos to reign supreme. A Liga MX veteran for 9 seasons, the Uruguayan knows how to win a foul. In addition, he got a yellow card for kicking the ball he used to score the penalty into the stands. He has played a total of 85 minutes and already has 1g/1a. Lordy. Neville’s toughest managerial decision on the Timbers’ sideline is approaching. How do you make room for Rodriguez, Antony, and Moreno?

Omir Fernandez: 8

Another odd factor of Ortiz’s substitution was the introduction of Fernandez in his place. It looked like Neville moved him into the double pivot to start, but then he moved out to the wing while Moreno dropped deeper. Either way, he should’ve marked his Timbers debut with an assist to Felipe Mora. I’m really looking forward to more Fernandez minutes. He didn’t look out of place in a Timbers shirt.

Felipe Mora: 6.8

Mora should have scored in the second minute of second-half stoppage time, and there’s only one reason why.

The broadcast team was utterly confused why the Timbers kept attacking late in the second half with a 4-2 lead. They were obviously not aware of this landmark day in Timbers history.

*Insert the Caleb Porter-Bruce Arena GIF.*

Other than that missed chance, Mora continued to do his usual Mora duties as the line-leader. Think about that. Mora gets to live the dream of every elementary school kid as they head in from recess. The Timbers are on the road again next week, and I think Kelsy will start that game. I’ll explain why in my San Jose preview.

Eric Miller: 6.2

Miller entered the game as a sub for Mosquera (maybe a little later than I would’ve liked) and completed 0 out of 2 passes. However, his presence in the backline is calming and settling. He didn’t contribute anything, but I have to praise his aura. What else would you call it? He’s a calming presence.

Cristhian Paredes: 7.3

The Closer was also brought on a little late for my liking, but I would like to highlight his lone aerial duel win. That header sprung an attack. I’m a little confused why he didn’t enter the game for Ortiz as a like-for-like switch, but I’m happy with his contribution nonetheless.

Table Time

The Portland Timbers, in their 50th anniversary season, are second in the Western Conference as the calendar turns to May. They are currently on a seven-match unbeaten streak, which is the longest such streak in the Western Conference. They are two points clear of second-placed Austin and four points clear of tenth-placed RSL. In addition, they are five points behind conference-leading Vancouver. They are also tied with those same Vancouver Whitecaps with 20 goals scored, which is the most in the Western Conference. Did someone ask for a second table?

The Portland Timbers, in their 50th anniversary season, are 7th in the Supporters’ Shield standings as the calendar turns to May. They are currently on a seven-match unbeaten streak, which is tied with Orlando for the longest such streak in MLS (although Orlando’s is buoyed by three consecutive 0-0 draws @PHI, vs. NYRB, and @MTL, not exactly world-beaters). They are five points behind Shield-leading Vancouver.

Final Whistle

Today’s game marked the fourth game in a row that the Timbers lost the xG battle. They got the result anyway. This team isn’t just on a silverware quest, they are angering The Underlying Numbers. You have to admire their willingness to openly mock such hallowed figures in the soccer world. But the results are coming, and points are being stacked.

It is early May, and Phil Neville’s first reaction after a 4-2 victory (their second consecutive road win by that scoreline) is frustration because of the two goals they conceded. He’s committed to improving this team. Even as some of his young players (the Timbers starting XI had a combined age of 24.2 today, the youngest in their MLS history) tend to “wobble off” at points (put that phrasing into the Neville Quote Hall of Fame, I absolutely love it). Trophies aren’t won in May (except CONCACAF). Their work is never finished. Da Costa echoed the same sentiment during his post-game press conference. During this streak, Neville has rarely mentioned the team’s mentality in a negative sense. Today’s errors came down to execution of the gameplan. As the youthful Timbers continue their quest to better themselves, they have a manager in place who will keep them on track and avoid “wobbling off.” Again, Diego Chara was not in the matchday squad today. These are not the 2024 Timbers. They aren’t even the 2019 Timbers. They’re a completely different Timbers team than the ones that have come before.

Last year’s Timbers finished the season with 3 road victories. They tied that mark today before the month of May. A win next week in San Jose will surpass that mark, something that hasn’t been achieved since 2021. The confidence is flowing. The goals are flowing. The mistakes will be analyzed. The climb continues.