Dropped

The San Jose Earthquakes are still winless at Providence Park. Unfortunately, that’s probably the only positive thing that can be said about tonight’s 1-1 draw.

Recap

Portland began the game on the front foot. It was a welcome sight. In the 10th minute, Felipe Mora volleyed a Juan Mosquera cross to the far post but it was saved by Daniel. Three minutes later, it appeared that the Timbers took the lead when Santiago Moreno played an excellent through ball to Antony and the resulting shot found the back of the net. However, the flag was raised. Based on the camera angles, it appears that Antony was offside. Correct call. The next big chance came in the 25th minute. Beau Leroux’s shot from distance was pushed aside by James Pantemis, but it fell directly to Amahl Pellegrino. The Norwegian made a meal out of this golden chance, and the game remained tied as his volley traveled into the North End. Diego Chara provided a through header (is that a term?) for Moreno one minute later, but some excellent 1v1 defending from Dave Romney nullified that threat. Moreno sent a shot from distance over the goal in the 42nd minute, and both teams entered halftime with a 0-0 game and everything to play for in the second half.

DeJuan Jones began the second half by fouling Antony, and the Brazilian was slow to get up. Jones earned a yellow card for his troubles. Antony had to leave the game due to this injury four minutes later. San Jose had the first real chance of the half when Vitor Costa’s shot hit the crossbar in the 51st minute. One minute later, the game changed.

In the 34th minute, Ian Harkes was shown a yellow card for a hard challenge on Felipe Mora. This tackle involved the studs of Harkes’ boot making contact with Mora’s groin. It was an “orange card” foul, so I don’t blame referee Victor Rivas too much for a yellow. However, Harkes did not manage the booking. In the 52nd minute, Harkes had a late challenge on Chara. It was a pretty easy decision for Rivas to give Harkes a second yellow. Now the Quakes were down to 10 men, and the Timbers had a golden opportunity.

They spent the first 20 minutes of the man advantage looking like a weaker team. Midfield turnovers and poor decisions made it seem like the visitors (WHO WERE DOWN A MAN) would find the game’s opening goal before Portland. Well, until the 71st minute. Mora’s one-touch slip pass to Juan Mosquera was fired home by the Colombian right back to give the Timbers the lead. It was almost 2-0 when Kevin Kelsy rounded Daniel and put the ball in the back of the net, but it was correctly ruled out for offside. But the Earthquakes kept playing their game, and two substitutes delivered a (deserved?) draw.

In the 3rd minute of stoppage time, Ousseni Bouda fired a shot on goal from outside the box. Pantemis inexplicably spilled it, and Preston Judd was there on the doorstep to bundle it into the net. Brutal. With a perfect situation arising from Harkes’ dismissal, the Timbers took the lead and handed a goal to the Earthquakes in the dying moments.

What Went Wrong?

That’s an open-ended question, and purposely so. Portland’s failure to execute the simplest things was put on full display. Acting head coach Dave van den Bergh saw it differently, saying that the team “made the mistake of trying to go for the gut punch.”

I don’t agree with that logic. When playing up a man, trying to score as many goals as possible is always the right move. It almost worked in the 78th minute, when Mosquera’s cross was *juuuuust* in front of Kevin Kelsy. It almost worked in the 83rd minute, when Da Costa’s one-man breakaway resulted in a good save from Daniel. And, finally, it almost worked in the 90th minute when Kelsy’s goal was wiped off due to an obvious offside. Portland looked like they were at their best when they were going for that gut punch. San Jose, to their credit, didn’t let the dismissal faze them.

Although the Timbers had the better chances after the red card, they still failed at the basic fundamentals. Crosses weren’t properly cleared. Sloppy midfield passing led to more turnovers. It turned into a game where Portland looked like they were down a man. When the red card occurred, San Jose had a 8-7 advantage on shots. When the game ended, San Jose’s advantage had increased (16-13). Both of San Jose’s best chances came from chaos-ball. Two fortunate rebounds on shots from distance.

That’s what I’m referring to whenever I’m begging the Timbers to take more shots. Portland spent most of this game reacting to the Earthquakes’ attacking thrusts. That equalizer was coming. Defending deeper and being patient in possession wasn’t going to win this game.

If anything, this game can be added to the evidence folder for a DP central midfielder. Although Antony’s injury could be a problem, a new DP winger would still be relying on this midfield and this backline to properly progress the ball.

The Hypothesis Redux

For the third home game in a row, the Timbers effectively tilted the field (72-28). But to continue a recurring theme, that 28% from the visitors looked much more threatening than Portland’s. Some of that can be attributed to excellent performances from San Jose’s three center backs (Romney was probably the best player on the field) but the continued lack of ideas and dangerous off-ball movement is completely hamstringing Portland’s attack.

Coach Rating: 4.2

The ratings section has to begin with the coaching. Phil Neville was suspended, so he watched tonight’s game from a suite. Van den Bergh was in charge of all in-game decisions, and there were two changes that gave the Earthquakes a platform to stay above water. The first was the 65th-minute Kelsy-Chara sub. When Antony got hurt, Omir Fernandez was the substitution. A case could be made that bringing Kelsy on at that moment would’ve been far more impactful. Portland would have two strikers, two attacking midfielders, and two holding midfielders on the pitch. Instead, with Fernandez already on the field, the Timbers were forced into a back five of sorts with Fernandez at left wingback. That was weird. The team was not prepared for this move, and they looked even more discombobulated than they already were. A more logical change would have been Paredes for Chara, but Kelsy would have remained on the bench. The initial Fernandez-Antony sub complicated matters further down the line. The double change in the 80th minute (Paredes-Mora and Ian Smith-Moreno) took a ton of bite out of Portland’s attack. Keep in mind, they had an 11v10 advantage.

There is no game next weekend. I don’t see any reason that Moreno or Mora had to exit that early unless they were too tired to keep playing. And it didn’t look like any form of exhaustion had settled in yet. It feels weird to say this, but I don’t think those changes would’ve been made if Neville was on the sideline.

Neville is dead-set on aggression. Pushing as hard as possible for more goals would’ve been the best strategy for the Timbers. Instead, the conservative changes led to more opportunities for the Quakes to get their equalizer. And when it finally came, it was the purest of gut-punches.

James Pantemis: 6.2

The steady-handed Canadian dropped the ball, literally. In crunch time, that ball has to be caught. It’s almost surreal rewatching it. At the worst possible moment, he couldn’t hang on. Most of San Jose’s big chances resulted in off-target shots. Aside from a solid stop on Cristian Espinoza’s near post shot in the 67th minute, I don’t think he made any big saves. A play that should’ve been bread-and-butter left Pantemis as a burnt piece of toast.

Juan Mosquera: 8.5

The goal was obviously the highlight, but I’d like to focus on Mosquera’s defense for a second. Specifically his aerial duels. Coming into this game, Mosquera won 72.7% of all aerials. With a 2/2 performance tonight, that percentage will surely increase. After the game, I asked him about the work being done on the training ground to improve his all-around game. “I’m really proud of the work that has been happening,” he said. Scoring his first goal of the season definitely helps.

Finn Surman: 9.1

Surman won all of his duels tonight (2 on the ground and 4 in the air). Not only is the 21-year-old consistent, he’s almost unbeatable at times. Drawing tonight’s game in that fashion has to hurt after such a quality outing against a dangerous attack.

Dario Zuparic: 9.4

Amy Norris of ProstAmerika made a comment in the press box tonight that stuck with me. I can’t remember the exact quote, but it goes something like this: “Zuparic is at his best when he’s playing against a psychopathic striker.”

Chicho Arango isn’t a psychopath by any means, but he certainly plays like one. He might be the most complete striker in MLS since Cucho Hernandez’s departure to Real Betis. Zuparic had his hands full all night but routinely got the better of the temperamental Colombian. In addition, I’d like to highlight this moment in the second minute of first-half stoppage time.

This clip is full of excellent Zuparic moments. First there’s the initial ball recovery, then the run, followed by him begging for the ball at the back post, and immediately pressing Espinoza after the turnover. This is textbook Zuparic.

When your center back is making the most dangerous attacking run of the first half, there are serious problems. I’m giving Zuparic the edge over Surman because of those attacking contributions.

Jimer Fory: 7.3

Cristian Espinoza wasn’t the only player to be imprisoned by Fory tonight. DeJuan Jones was consistently troublesome during both games earlier this season, but Fory held him in check during game number three. However, I am waiting to see more of his offensive contributions. Some of those problems can be attributed to him, while others stem from a complete lack of his teammates getting into the box.

Diego Chara: 7.6

Vintage stuff, I must say. The captain made his first start since April 19th and didn’t miss a beat. I don’t think any other player on this team could turn a header into a through ball. I would’ve liked to see more than 65 minutes of Chara in this game. Did he sell Harkes’ second yellow card a bit? Yes, but contact was made. A good return to the starting lineup for the club captain.

David Ayala: 7.2

American Soccer Analysis’ goals added metric rated Ayala as the worst Timbers player on the pitch. Keep in mind, that metric only takes into account off-ball actions. It can’t quantify stuff like this:

Or this:

Was he a factor in those midfield giveaways? Yes, but I don’t think he was as poor as that stat would indicate. Another solid performance from the young Argentine.

Santiago Moreno: 6.8

Oddly enough, Moreno finished the game with the same goals added rating as Ayala. I think that Moreno doesn’t take enough charge around the box, and could be playing a lot of dangerous passes. However, I did like his shot from distance in the 41st minute. Yes, it was nowhere near the target, but those types of speculative efforts are sorely lacking in Portland’s attack.

Antony: 6.7

I don’t have a ton of notes about Antony’s performance. I like how he can be used as a field stretcher, but he needs to be making more incisive runs inside the box. The real story is his injury. After the game, he was still limping. Van den Bergh declined to give an update on it during the post-game press conference because the team doctors haven’t gotten a chance to look at it yet. Either way, there are two weeks until the next game, so there is a good amount of time to heal.

Felipe Mora: 8.8

Taking Mora off proved to be disastrous. You could make an argument that he’s Portland’s only attacker with Velcro straps on his feet. In a game where keeping possession was of the utmost importance, willingly removing one of your key outlets was dumbfounding. That assist was beautiful. A perfect slip pass to an onrushing Mosquera. Mora is the unquestioned focal point of the attack and had another brilliant performance, so question marks should be raised about why he got removed with 10 minutes of regular time remaining.

Omir Fernandez: 7.2

Fernandez was on the field for 46 minutes. In that time he played left wing, left wing-back(?), and right wing. Somehow he was effective at all three. In the 74th minute, he played a dangerous cross into the box. No one was there to receive it. He’s a Swiss army knife who is a serious threat around the box.

Kevin Kelsy: 6.8

He was very offside on that disallowed goal, but he always does something intriguing on the pitch. Tonight’s submission:

By all rights, this should’ve been an assist. The ball doesn’t stick to him like Mora, but his physical presence causes trouble for any MLS center back.

Cristhian Paredes: 6.6

The Paraguyan’s cameo wasn’t that encouraging. I don’t have any major contributions (positive or negative) in my notes. He was just kind of there.

Ian Smith: 7

If only Kelsy was onside. The University of Denver graduate played as a left winger tonight, and gave a pretty good account of himself while out of position.

David Da Costa: 6.7

There’s something ironic about Da Costa having to get out of the way in order for the Timbers to score a goal. However, his decision to remain as a traffic cone on Mosquera’s goal was very intelligent. This is another game where Da Costa didn’t have a performance up to par, and I have a stat to illustrate his biggest moment.

Everything went so well until the finish. Carrying the ball from the halfway line all the way to the box only for the shot to be easily smothered by Daniel. That shot in the 83rd minute had an xG value of 0.10. That number was calculated due to the quality of the chance, but not the finish. Fortunately, there is a statistic to quantify finishing! xG on target (xGOT for short) measures the quality of a shot on goal. All shots on goal have an xGOT value of 0.00 (because they’re off target, duh). Da Costa’s shot in the 83rd minute had an xGOT value of 0.09. By one hundredth, Da Costa’s finish was worse than the chance presented. This is a familiar theme for Portuguese Dave.

Throughout the season, Da Costa has taken 30 shots and scored 2 goals. The Austin game-winner was 0.04 xG (0.06 xGOT). His second goal against the Galaxy was 0.14 xG (0.23 xGOT). But I’d like to draw your attention to Da Costa’s “fast break” chances. 4 of those 30 shots fall into this category. Only one of them (April 13th in Kansas City) has a significant overperformance in xGOT vs. raw xG (0.21 xGOT to 0.08 xG). Per FotMob, the combined xG from all of Da Costa’s shots is 2.56. But there’s a serious gap to his xGOT (1.68). There’s one more caveat to mention: only 9 of those shots are on target. The point still stands: his finishing is a serious issue.

When I was watching Da Costa’s Lens tape from last season, his inconsistent finishing stood out. It looks like that part of his game has carried over. I didn’t think it would be as big of an issue for a pure creator (his creation stats are still very good) but he’s the lone DP on the roster until the Rodriguez replacement arrives. That finishing has to improve. Here’s one suggestion, with some data to back it up.

Look at how many of these attempts are at ground level. The first step for Da Costa to improve his finishing is working on striking the ball in the top half of the goal. There needs to be some variety here. I think it’s a realistic approach to get him back on the scoresheet. And if that 83rd minute chance did find the back of the net, this would’ve been a guaranteed 3 points for Portland.

Table Time

In the post-game press conference, Juan Mosquera said that this would be a game that the team would look back on in December. A huge opportunity presented itself tonight, and the Timbers dropped it. Meanwhile, they won’t fall out of 4th place, but it’s still a gigantic kick in the balls.

Final Whistle

Tonight’s Final Whistle segment is going to take on a couple of different topics. First of all, there’s one more match-specific point to be made.

Here’s what the stats for the second half looked like. While playing up a man, the Timbers registered 0.45 xG from 6 shots (2 on target). Most of San Jose’s xG can be attributed to the equalizer (0.93) but Portland’s putrid attacking effort in the second half was a big step back from dominant second halves in each of their previous two games. The Timbers dominated the ball, but failed to create while up a man. Disappointing.

Tonight’s game wasn’t just a regular Western Conference affair against the San Jose Earthquakes. Some very special guests were in attendance.

Two of these men stand out: Peter Withe (far left with the hat and a raised arm) and Mick Hoban (left of the “P” with a gray jacket and black shoes). Withe was the striker that every team wanted: physical and aerially dominant. I bet he wished he was back on the field tonight, heading home some of Santiago Moreno’s corner kick deliveries. Although he only spent one year in Portland, his 18 goals led the team to the Soccer Bowl (we don’t talk about what happened in that game).

Withe’s soccer journey took him all over the world, including managerial stops in Thailand and Indonesia. But Mick Hoban is the one who stayed. After four seasons as a Timber, he retired from playing to grow the game. Quite literally. Not only was Hoban the first player signed to the Timbers, he was the first employee in Nike’s soccer department. Tonight, he took center stage at Civic Stadium again, with a special axe in his hand signifying his well-deserved place in the club’s Ring of Honor.

What should’ve been a celebration for the ones who laid the groundwork turned into the most disappointing draw in recent Timbers memory. While the 75ers stood in their suite in a stadium that underwent so many changes since that inaugural match, the current crop of Timbers failed to strike a killing blow against the San Jose Earthquakes. During that 1975 season, Withe scored a brace against these Quakes to give the Timbers a 3-2 victory. 50 years later, the Timbers tripped over themselves.

This is a generational “losing draw.” Even the veracity of the second yellow card could be debated, and there’s an argument to be made that the Timbers were better off when San Jose had 11 men on the field. Another long break awaits, with a trip to Toronto next up on June 28th. The taste of this disaster will not escape the mouths of the coaches and players for these upcoming two weeks. It has to motivate them.

You could argue that the strong first half of the season papered over cracks. Mostly cracks that related to the attack. With another transfer window approaching and a hectic July on the docket, the Portland Timbers have to continue their evolution. Last year’s issues were focused on the defensive side of the ball (set pieces, shots from distance, transition defending). Now the problems lie in their attack (midfield turnovers, poor chance creation, and a lack of ideas). These issues can be fixed. Another DP will arrive in the summer. This break has to be used as an opportunity to improve. Otherwise, a strong first half will stall out. The climb continues.