Club America-Portland Timbers Preview (8/6)

Phase One of Leagues Cup is almost in the books, but the toughest test for the Portland Timbers has been saved for last. After facing two weaker Liga MX teams in the first two games (Atletico de San Luis and Queretaro), the Gigante of Gigantes is awaiting them in Austin: Club America.

The Club America Report

Winning back to back league titles in Mexico allows you to enter a special club: bicampeones. Since Liga MX began the short-season format in 1996, only 4 teams have become bicampeones: Pumas (2004 Clausura & Apertura), Leon (2013 Apertura & 2014 Clausura), and Atlas (2021 Apertura & 2022 Clausura). Club America took it one step further. They won the 2023 Apertura, 2024 Clausura, and 2024 Apertura. In doing so, Las Aguilas became the first team to win 3 straight leagues: tricampeones. Toluca thwarted their quest for the quad, but there’s no debate about Club America’s pedigree: they are the biggest club in Mexico and, therefore, North America.

Club America’s excellent league form over the past couple of years hasn’t translated to Leagues Cup. 2023’s run came to an end in the Round of 16 against Nashville after entering as one of the favorites. That featured advancement from the group stage, but they entered the 2024 edition of Leagues Cup with a group-stage bye after winning the 2023 Apertura. After winning back-to-back knockout stage games against Atlas and St. Louis, the Colorado Rapids forced Las Aguilas to go to penalties in the quarterfinals. Colorado won the shootout and Club America’s Leagues Cup journey came to an end in the quarterfinals for the second year in a row. Like last year, Las Aguilas have hosting priority through the semifinal round. So how has 2025 gone?

It began with a penalty shootout loss to RSL, which earned Club America one point. However, their second game against Minnesota is a contender for “game of the tournament.” The Loons took a 1-0 lead through Tani Oluwaseyi in the 17th minute, but it was canceled out by a Michael Boxall own goal 10 minutes later. Not to be outdone, Bongi Hlongwane (who is a Leagues Cup superstar) scored 4 minutes after the own goal to give Minnesota a 2-1 lead heading into halftime. In the 53rd minute, America found their second equalizer from Jose Zuniga. Nine minutes later, center back Igor Lichnovsky received a second yellow card, which gave Minnesota a man advantage. Carlos Harvey scored three minutes later to give Minnesota another one-goal lead (3-2) in the 65th minute. However, in the 90th minute, the 10-man Mexican team found their THIRD equalizer. Sebastian Caceres headed home Brian Rodriguez’s corner kick delivery and the game went to penalties. After 7 consecutive rounds without a miss, the Loons’ Nicholas Romero failed to convert. 21-year-old winger Isaias Violante put his kick past Dayne St. Clair, and Las Aguilas lived to fight another day in the tournament. 

“Fight” is a pretty good descriptor because it looks like their benchmark (making the quarterfinals) is in serious danger. However, they are Club America, and they always have a fighting chance, especially with a “home” game on deck. 

CA Projected Starting XI

On Tuesday, FOX Sports Mexico reported that Brian Rodriguez will not feature in tomorrow’s match due to a pending transfer to Qatari club Al-Rayyan Igor Lichnovsky’s red card prohibits him from featuring in Austin, but a center back partnership of Caceres and Reyes is still very formidable. Neville described this team as “a team of DPs.” That assessment is correct, in both the literal and existential sense. Club America has a very large payroll, and every single one of these players are DP-quality. Notable names include Alvaro Fidalgo, Alex Zendejas, Henry Martin, Luis Malagon, Kevin Alvarez, and Victor Davila. Some tweets floated around about head coach Andre Jardine deciding not to take this game seriously. That’s an absolute lie. Club America has a reputation to uphold. They will not be going down without a fight, no matter who starts.

The Timbers Report

There might come a time in the near future where everyone shares their memories of August 4th, 2025. After all, it was a day unlike any other in recent Portland Timbers history. In addition to some welcome news on the injury front (Phil Neville’s declaration that Antony is ready to start and the presence of a full squad in training), the two biggest bombs of the summer transfer window were unloaded in the span of 9 hours.

Two Signings? In One Day?

Let’s begin at 10 AM on August 4th. While observing warmups at the Timbers’ Training Facility in Beaverton, a Twitter notification hit my phone. Suddenly, for a period of 5 minutes, my phone didn’t stop buzzing. The source of all the excitement was a tweet from MLS’ resident insider Tom Bogert, who reported that the Portland Timbers were finalizing a deal for 25-year-old Olympiacos winger Kristoffer Velde. The Norwegian is set to join Portland for a package worth $5M with add-ons (this is Bogert’s number, which I believe to be more accurate, not Fabrizio Romano’s reported price of 8 million Euros (equal to about $9M)).

You all know the drill by now. There are two stops that must be made before anyone can express their excitement or concern. The first stop is Fotmob to check the raw counting stats (goals+assists, yellow cards, the works) of this player who is set to become the newest Timber. Once the basic Fotmob check is complete, it’s time for FBRef. An immediate screenshot of the player’s per-90 stats becomes a fixture in your camera roll as you decide to form an immediate opinion about the player who you definitely haven’t heard of before. However, when checking the FBRef chart, there’s something very important that often gets missed. 

There’s a lot of green here. That’s encouraging. But it doesn’t tell the full story. A look at the top shows that this statistical output is from the most recent Europa League. But that’s not all. Velde only played 184 minutes in the 2024/25 Europa League, so this dataset is entirely inconclusive. It’s true. During Olympiacos’ Europa League campaign, Velde never had a shift lasting longer than 45 minutes. Now that we’ve concluded that the dataset is flawed, it becomes much more imperative to watch some highlights.

This entire approach is flawed. Sure, the data usually tells a story, but data is useless without the context of the eye test. The highlights should be the first thing that gets looked at rather than the FBRef chart. But since these transfer confirmations (you can call them Bogert Bombs) often catch us by surprise, you’re not always in a position to pull up YouTube and watch a 10-minute highlight compilation. You are compelled to make a snap judgement, and the data is usually the best and easiest way to make the immediate judgement that your mind desires. 

The eye test is always the most important aspect of assessing a player. After watching as many highlight compilations as you desire, then you go to the data and see how well it matches with the footage you just observed. Data alone cannot tell you what you need to know about a player. It has to be used in context with the tape. Some players will shine on the data front because they play in a possession-heavy team that creates a ton of chances. But the most important part of player assessment is their behavior on the pitch. With any new DP, the assessment starts with the tape and ends with a question: is their play style suited to MLS and can it be replicated in Portland?

Based on the limited tape I’ve watched, I see a lot of positives. Chief among them is the way that he plays. Well, that’s pretty generalized, but it’s the way that he carries himself. In short, he plays like a DP. Velde wants the ball at his feet. When the ball is at his feet, it’s hard to take it away from him. Velde will take on defenders and usually beat them. But the most exciting aspect that the tape demonstrates is his two-footedness. Because of that, he can play on either flank even though he’s better suited to the left side. Add in his tendency to shoot from anywhere, and it’s pretty easy to see him becoming a success in Portland. Think of him as a right-footed Marco Pasalic. His tape looks a lot like Orlando’s star right winger.

However, most of that tape comes from his tenure in Poland with Lech Poznan. The Polish league is definitely lower-quality than MLS, and he’s coming from Olympiacos in Greece. Most of the data is missing from the Greek Super League, but the counting stats show that Veldinho (yes, that’s his nickname and it’s awesome) tallied 4g/1a in 1,269 minutes (21 games, 17 starts). That’s his first year in Greece, and it isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire. Olympiacos signed him last summer for $4.6M (converted from Euros). So they’re making a slight profit. I think this was too good of an offer for Olympiacos to pass up. The negotiations surrounding this deal haven’t been made public yet (I’ll try my best to get a good answer from Ned Grabavoy about the negotiations) but I feel like they were relatively straightforward on the club side. 

We’ll hear more from Veldinho (God I love this nickname, I hope Velde likes it too) during his introductory press conference. But he might not be alone during that first introduction to Portland’s media.

Now we fast forward to 7 PM. The Veldinho news wasn’t the only major MLS news drop on Monday. Djordje Mihailovic’s $9M sale to Toronto (not a trade, it’s a sale) is probably the biggest shock of the summer window. Because Cascadia FC is partnered with Colorado-based outlet Box State Footy, I recorded my reaction to the Mihailovic news before I could really dig into the Veldinho tape. You can find my reaction here. While I was watching a different Rapids livestream on YouTube (seriously, every Timbers fan should respect the ‘Pids), the news broke about Portland’s second signing of the day: Gremio midfielder Felipe Carballo on a loan deal with a buy option.

This deal excites me more than the Veldinho move, and it should be clear that I’m very pleased with the Norwegian winger with a splash of Argentina. Carballo fills another major need: a consistent starting-quality option in the midfield alongside David Ayala. The Uruguayan broke through at Nacional (be nice to him, Jona) before moving to Gremio in January 2023. He spent the latter months of 2024 on loan with the New York Red Bulls; becoming a key component in their late-season charge to the Eastern Conference title. His loan continued through the first half of 2025, but a weaker Red Bulls team contributed to a downturn in Carballo’s form. The highlight of his time in Harrison, NJ was his weak-footed banger from outside the box against rival NYCFC in the playoffs. After returning to Gremio, the Timbers came calling. 

Carballo is 28 years old and turns 29 on October 4th. Get the anytime goalscorer bets for Seattle ready, because this guy has a CANNON attached to both feet. Like Veldinho, Carballo’s two-footedness is beyond apparent. Very few players have 18-minute goal compilations on YouTube, but Carballo’s is jaw-dropping. It’s a mixture of outside-the-box bangers with either foot. He profiles as an 8, and a very good one at that.

That’s a proper amount of minutes to draw some conclusions from after looking at the tape. Like Veldinho, Carballo looks like a problem-solver. The Timbers don’t progress the ball through the midfield enough? The Uruguayan is an outstanding progressive passer. The Timbers don’t shoot the ball from outside the box? I’d like to introduce you to Carballo’s shot chart from 2025.

A player with that goal catalogue will score from outside the box. But even the willingness to shoot from distance is a needed upgrade. Carballo is a true box-to-box 8 who impacts the attack just as much as he defends. It’s a profile that the Timbers have been desperately searching for over the past few seasons. Ayala’s role was questioned for the past year while people like myself tried to answer whether or not he was a 6 or an 8. His performances in 2025 have solidified him as a Diego Chara-style 6. Now the Timbers have found an 8 to complete the midfield partnership.

The most exciting part of this move, however, is the loan status with a buy option. With New York, Carballo carried a TAM-level salary ($1.05M base, $1.2M guaranteed). I expect his salary in Portland to be around the same. But there is a purchase option attached to this move. That number hasn’t been properly confirmed, so I won’t speculate on it. The idea of having a purchase option, however, is excellent. The Timbers haven’t properly utilized the loan market since Josecarlos Van Rankin. Loans are very underutilized in general across the league, despite the high-profile Rodrigo de Paul deal orchestrated by Inter Miami stealing a lot of headlines. It isn’t worth speculating on the buy option until a confirmed number materializes and the season has ended. Until then, Carballo (who has publicly stated that he wants to leave Gremio) has the remainder of 2025 to impress the Portland Timbers. If they like what they see, he could enter 2025 as a permanent member of the squad. Low-risk, high-reward. 

It’s pretty mind-blowing that both of these major deals were announced on the same day. But that’s not my main takeaway from yesterday. Bogert’s tweets are usually worded very specifically. For both Veldinho and Carballo’s announcement tweets, Bogert used the phrase “finalizing a deal.” This is significant. These deals are pretty much done, so the players should be in Portland very soon. Grabavoy and the rest of the front office effectively went radio silent and didn’t disclose anything until the deals were as good as done. Sometimes silence is the most effective form of productivity after all.

Some Thoughts From Zac McGraw

Over the past week, McGraw has returned from injury and contributed to both clean sheets in Leagues Cup. It’s been a while since I’ve checked in with the Canadian center back, and I (with a helpful assist from the I-5 Corridor’s Tyson Alger) asked him a few questions on Monday. Here’s what he had to say:

Q (me): How has it felt getting back on the field following your back injury?

A: Good! I mean, the best part of soccer is playing games obviously. It sucks doing rehab for so long, I think 3 months almost? But it’s good! The hardest thing is just getting back in soccer shape and you can only really do that by playing. Training doesn’t really translate well to game fitness but it feels really good!

Q (me): How did it feel to contribute to two clean sheets in your first two appearances following your injury?

A: Good! We had a little rough stretch with Toronto and St. Louis away from home, but it’s all about momentum. Even though it’s not MLS play, clean sheets stack up mentally and performance-wise.

Q (Alger): How tough is a back injury for someone with your size and physicality?

A: It sucked a lot. At first we thought it was a muscle spasm, but I wasn’t getting better in the 48 hours you expect from a muscle spasm. The MRI showed a pretty bad herniated disc, and everyday life was pretty rough. Couldn’t do much with the baby, couldn’t even lift up the baby. Thankfully, I didn’t need surgery and recovery has been pretty good. 

Q (me): How is the team preparing for the oppressive Texas weather?

A: We play Club America, obviously it’s not in Mexico but it’s going to be an away game for us. We’re just gonna have to manage it. We all know that Texas heat and humidity suck, and you gotta have that mindset that it’s gonna suck and you just gotta push through that. We’ll rely on the bench, have good subs. Dallas could be number one in the league or the bottom of the league, it’s just never easy going into Houston, Dallas, Austin. It’s going to be a grind.

PTFC Projected Starting XI

The entire squad (minus the obvious exception of Rodriguez (God I wish he was healthy for this game)) should be available for selection. This includes Antony, whose projected timeline lined up perfectly for a return against Club America. However, due to the difficulty of the upcoming week, I think he will come off the bench tomorrow. That clears the way for a front three of Mora, Da Costa, and Moreno. The interesting aspect is Moreno, who is still the subject of heavy transfer speculation despite no bids arriving from Fluminense since the publicized $4M offer was rejected last week. He’s still a Timber, so he will play for the Timbers. The best available back eight should start as well. Some might pine for Dario Zuparic, but I’d like to see him on Saturday against fellow Croatian Petar Musa. That’s a matchup that one person I know (Green is the Color’s Billy Merck) would love to see too. Either way, I think this team picks itself. With a lot of rest achieved over the weekend, Portland’s key players are ready for their biggest test of the season.

Tactical Preview

Keeping Shape

Against the big teams, the basics must be taken care of. Portland’s defensive basics in this game just involve keeping shape. Club America’s group of forwards will constantly test Portland’s backline on and off the ball. Showing discipline and communication will go a long way for the Timbers as they defend a dangerous attack. 

Providing Service

This section has two parts. The first has to do with the title (duh). Portland’s rather frustrating habit of only wanting to shoot inside the six-yard box needs to change for this game. Although the Timbers technically have something to lose in regards to the Leagues Cup standings (more on that later), they have to play this game like they have absolutely nothing to lose. This includes early crosses, shots from distance, and long balls. 

Here’s where part two comes into play. Not all of those risk-taking maneuvers will pay off. But they would have a better chance of succeeding if the Timbers fight hard for every second ball. If there’s one thing I would like to see above all else, it’s Portland’s ability to match Club America’s intensity. It would show up the most on second balls. A fully locked-in Timbers team should be able to keep their shape and win second balls. Take risks with the ball, but be disciplined out of possession. That’s a winning formula.

The Dark Arts

And, as always, the Timbers cannot fall into the traps of the dark arts. One example was outlined by Timbers assistant coach Shannon Murray. In a radio interview with Adam Susman, he talked about Club America’s tendency to do one thing that is sure to frustrate Portland’s players tomorrow: when a Timber receives a pass, the Aguila will stick with them. When the ball eventually leaves the Timber’s feet, the Aguila will continue to stick with them. This is something that a lot of the Gigantes do. They’ll do all the small grabs and shoves (that end up being barely noticeable except on replay) to get in Portland’s heads. The Timbers’ awareness of this style of play can only help them, but only if they keep their composure. Tomorrow’s key to victory (mentality-wise) is to stay focused and keep composure. 

Matchday Info

Broadcast platform: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV

Kickoff time: 6:30 PM PST

Series History

Historical record: 0-1-1, -2 goal differential

Historical “road” record: 0-0-1, -2 goal differential

Current streak: 2 winless

Current “road” streak: 1 loss

Table Time

Based on the second round of games, the Timbers will clinch a spot in the knockout stages with a win on penalty kicks. That is worth 2 points, and will see them finish in the top 3. A win will also clinch a spot, with the Timbers able to finish in the top 2. However, any other result (loss on penalty kicks or loss in regulation) will require some help from other teams. On Monday, Neville spoke about how Saturday’s game in Dallas is the “more important” fixture, but this game is a prime opportunity to make a major statement and qualify for the knockout stage for the 3rd year in a row. Portland has two very important games on this Texas trip, no matter what kind of water Neville tries to throw on the fire.

Final Whistle

My expectations for Leagues Cup were only going to be dependent on the result of the first game. That game ended with a 4-0 victory. After Round 1, the Timbers were in second place. Here they are, in Texas, about to kick off Round 3, and they’re still in second place. They aren’t just in second. They’re one of only two teams to win both of their games so far (the other one is Seattle, because of course it is). But they are also the only team in the entire tournament to register 2 clean sheets. 

I find it really funny that tomorrow’s game is being played in Austin. Club America’s unofficial “home base” for Leagues Cup is Texas, and this game is being played at the only Texas stadium where the Timbers are historically good (3-1-2 all-time record at Q2). However, the opponent in all of those games is Austin FC, and the Broccoli are not Club America. 

No other team on the continent is Club America. And yet they’re limping into this game while the Timbers are enjoying a rich run of form. No matter what happens on the field tomorrow, the end result will be fascinating. For Timbers fans, they’re hoping for a result good enough to secure their advancement into the knockout stages. But the recent script in these types of games has not been going Portland’s way.

Since losing the 2021 MLS Cup at home, Portland has controlled their destiny for a playoff berth in each of the last three seasons. In 2022, all they had to do was win or draw in Salt Lake City on Decision Day. It was over from the opening kickoff, with a motivated RSL (who needed to win to make the playoffs) running riot over the Timbers to the tune of a 3-1 humiliation. In 2023, a 4-1 loss in Montreal forced the Timbers to beat Houston on Decision Day or draw and hope that other results went their way. They lost 3-1, but even a draw wouldn’t have been able to save them.

That’s madness. The soccer gods told the Timbers that they weren’t getting into the playoffs in 2023. Last season, a home loss to Austin and a home draw to Dallas prevented the Timbers from escaping the Wild Card Game. Everyone knows what happened next.

After years of dropping the ball when it’s in their court, tomorrow’s game provides an opportunity for the Timbers to advance in a tournament due to their own achievement. Not by doing something and hoping that results go their way. They control their own destiny. And the morale boost provided by clinching a spot in the next round through their own good result can go a long way. 

Five players (Diego Chara, Cristhian Paredes, Dario Zuparic, Felipe Mora, and Zac McGraw) remain from the 2021 team that lost 4-2 on aggregate in the CCL Quarterfinals. One of them is a former Aguila. Those players haven’t forgotten that fateful Cinco de Mayo at the Azteca. But they also remember what happened one week earlier, when a limited crowd erupted as Felipe Mora scored a game-tying penalty in the 7th minute of second-half stoppage time. Those players have been waiting for another chance since the final whistle blew in Mexico City. Tomorrow, they get their chance. The quest continues.