A Modest Shrug

*Cover photo credit to Willie J. Allen Jr./Orlando Sentinel.*

The toughest road game of the year is over, and the Portland Timbers failed to win it. They leave Orlando with a 1-0 loss and remain winless at Inter&Co Stadium.

Recap

Let’s set the stage for the game. Orlando played 90 minutes at home against Nashville on Wednesday, while Portland played 120 minutes in San Jose on Tuesday. The Lions’ starting lineup featured their entire midweek backline. I’d say that neither team had an advantage or disadvantage for additional rest. Even though the Timbers played on the road, they had an extra recovery day.

Orlando began the game on the front foot and forced Portland’s defense into a low block. Their best chance of the opening half hour was a Marco Pasalic shot from outside the box that forced Maxime Crepeau to make a good save. However, as their pressure continued, it became clear that a goal was coming. After a terrible Santiago Moreno turnover, Orlando was able to keep possession around Portland’s box. A cross was cleared by Dario Zuparic, but he stepped out of the backline to create space for Duncan McGuire behind him in the box. Eduard Atuesta played an easy forward pass into that space, and McGuire’s fierce effort blew by Crepeau in the 38th minute. Orlando took that lead into halftime, with an 11-1 shots advantage. Here’s Portland’s lone shot of the first half.

The script was completely flipped in the second half, as the hosts decided to sit deep and hit on the counter. David Ayala and Cristhian Paredes did an excellent job of keeping the pressure on by nullifying Orlando’s counters with several timely tackles. However, Portland’s half of dominance (72% possession and an outrageous amount of field tilt) resulted in 6 total shots. Only one of those shots (Finn Surman’s 78th minute header from a corner kick which forced Gallese into an acrobatic save) was on target, and even that was debatable (replays showed the shot’s trajectory heading over the crossbar). Orlando dared the Timbers to score a goal, and they failed. A 1-0 loss isn’t a bad result by any means, but Portland’s flaws have been laid bare for the entire league to see.

May A Goal Be Scored?

Portland’s midfield and defense deserve some flowers for this game, but the main story is the attack. It turns out that the Underlying Numbers never lie, and the Timbers are in the middle of a horrific stretch of attacking futility. Since the 4-1 loss in San Jose that began the month of May, the Timbers have played 4 MLS matches. They have created a total of 2.63 xG COMBINED in those 4 games. So what exactly is wrong with this team, and how can it be fixed?

Let’s begin with one simple statement: Orlando’s defense is good. Since David Brekalo moved to left back, their backline has stabilized after a shaky start. Today’s shutout marks their 7th clean sheet in 15 MLS games. So it isn’t surprising that the Timbers really struggled to score a goal tonight (in particular). But this performance is further evidence that something has gone wrong in Portland’s attack. Well, multiple things have broken since the month of May began. Let’s begin with the biggest one: turnovers.

I thought that the Timbers did a better job of keeping the ball in tonight’s game than they did against Seattle and San Jose. But that was mostly due to Orlando relaxing the pressure in the second half. In the first half, Portland’s ball progression was nearly non-existent. Through balls were absent. Long balls were cut out. Combinations lead to turnovers. It seemed like the entire team wasn’t on the same page. And that carried over to Broken Item Number Two: fatigue.

Mental fatigue is just as problematic as physical fatigue. For the record, I thought that the Timbers didn’t look any more tired than Orlando. They had the opportunities to break, but could never find the entry ball to spring those lethal counterattacks from March and April. There wasn’t enough urgency, and part of that was due to slow mental processing when one of those opportunities arose. That screams “mental fatigue” and it was incredibly frustrating to watch a counterattack be possible but be nullified by a slow decision and an inevitable pass backwards. On the other hand, Orlando’s in-form attack rarely made those mistakes and knew where each of their teammates would be in a given situation. Portland’s attacking performance can only be described as “individual.”

Broken Item Number Three is finishing. The Timbers had several half-chances, but none of their shots came close to testing Gallese. Two of these shots stand out in my mind: a Da Costa shot that went wide right in the 49th minute and a 70th minute Antony shot that looked like a pass to the corner flag. I’d also like to point out that Portland’s unwillingness to “have a go” is very detrimental to their attacking effort. Goals can be created off of rebounds and deflections. Most importantly: a shot causes the defense to react. If other Timbers attackers are more alert, they can take advantage of reacting defenses. But Portland’s attackers allow defenses to be set. Introducing chaos can go a long way.

Player Ratings

Maxime Crepeau: 7.8

Put it in the books: it’s another quality start from Maxime Crepeau. I’m not blaming him at all for failing to stop McGuire’s winning goal from hitting the back of the net. However, I’m at a crossroads with his distribution. Several long balls fell right to Orlando defenders, but I’m wondering if that was an effect of poor passing or poor effort to try and win the ball.

Juan Mosquera: 6.8

Although Mosquera might be the only player in the league who has a windup for his crosses, his primary job is to defend. I thought he defended pretty well. However, the stat sheet says that he only completed 1 out of 5 attempted crosses. Those crosses (often hit from deeper areas) were one of the only things that unsettled Orlando’s defense in the second half. And, at the very least, he was trying to provide service.

Finn Surman: 7.2

7 more clearances and winning all 3 of his duels. Just another typical night for Surman. I’m not giving him a ton of stick for allowing McGuire to blast home Orlando’s winner.

Dario Zuparic: 6.7

That stick will be reserved for Zuparic instead. Usually, I like it when he steps out of his backline to challenge an opposing player. But tonight, he did it without thinking about the player he was leaving unmarked in the box. A simple mistake, and the Timbers got punished for it. He also stepped out of his line in the second half, but he had the ball at his feet. When Portland’s attack was struggling to create, the Croatian took it upon himself to do so. “I saw the space, so I was also a little bit nervous and trying to do some crazy things, but I just saw the space.” I wonder what kind of “crazy things” he was envisioning.

Jimer Fory: 7.6

Before I get into Fory’s defensive work, I’d like to give him an award. He completed all 32 of his attempted passes, which automatically gives him a membership into the Darlington Nagbe Club. In order to enter this exclusive club, a player must attempt more than 30 passes in a game and complete all of them. Nagbe has gratefully (unknowingly) given his name to this society because he has done it 10 times. Since FBRef began tracking stats back in 2018, only 3 Timbers (Diego Chara, Josecarlos Van Rankin, and Maxime Crepeau) have joined the club. Congratulations to Jimer Fory for doing it tonight.

However, that accomplishment isn’t tied into team success. But Fory can claim a goal-saving action when he cleared a ball out of bounds that had slipped by Crepeau in the box. That’s outstanding back-post defending. Subbing him off for Bravo was the right move as Portland chased the equalizing goal.

Cristhian Paredes: 8.5

“Cristhian is in really good form. I think having the captain’s armband really brings out the best in him.” This was Neville’s assessment of the player who he gave the armband to today, and it was spot on. He completed 93% of his passes, including all 4 of his attempted long balls. But it was his defense that stood out today. 3 out of 4 tackles won, 3 clearances, 2 interceptions, and a whopping 13 ball recoveries. You know what? It’s been a while since I did a Stathead segment. Paredes deserves it for today’s game. The criteria: 13 ball recoveries, 93% pass accuracy while attempting at least 70 passes, 4/4 accurate long balls, 3 tackles, 3 clearances, and 1 successful dribble.

This is the only other instance in which a player matches Paredes’ output today. If I take out the dribble, it’s still the only one. What a performance.

David Ayala: 8.2

He didn’t light up the stat sheet like his Paraguayan counterpart, but he’s gonna get a clip instead of Stathead.

He’s the one who wins the ball from Muriel after losing his balance a second before. God, he’s so good.

He looked like one of the most fit players on the pitch and bossed the midfield alongside Paredes. In addition to that wonderful tackle shown above, he repeatedly won the ball back in the second half to keep the team on the front foot.

Santiago Moreno: 4.3

Moreno entered today on full rest but looked like the worst player on the pitch in the first half. Those midfield giveaways that I’ve been harping on for the past few weeks? The Colombian was the biggest culprit tonight, including one that led to Orlando’s goal. “The first half was nowhere near acceptable from 3-4 players,” Neville said post-game. Moreno was definitely one of them, and he was subbed off at halftime despite being on full rest. A massive step back from Portland’s most in-form attacker.

David Da Costa: 6.4

Portuguese Dave took a passive role in today’s game, which is not what he was brought here to do. His finishing is still a problem, but a lack of killer instinct plays into that. This was a game that he needed to take by the throat and he barely grasped it. Disappointing.

Omir Fernandez: 6.7

Fernandez’s chief contribution to tonight’s game was drawing 4 fouls. The fluidity promised by Neville ahead of today’s game was somewhat showcased by the newest Timber, who routinely dropped deeper into the midfield to progress the ball. How did that work? Well, he did drop into the midfield….

Kevin Kelsy: 7.2

The Venezuelan is stuck between being a self-creating striker and relying on service. However, he officially earned his hold-up play badge for this sequence.

Nothing incredible comes of it, but it was still really encouraging to see. I’d like to shout out his defensive work as well. He’s a bundle of energy and the perfect player to start up top on the road.

Antony: 6.2

52 minutes and 3 off-target shots. At least Colorado comes to town on Wednesday. He needs to snap out of this slump.

Claudio Bravo: 7.3

I was very happy to see Bravo enter tonight’s game because he provided something that the Timbers were desperately missing: combination play and off-ball movement. However, he wasn’t on the same page as his teammates (not his fault) and that was epitomized in the 3rd minute of second half stoppage time. He played a through ball to Antony, but the Brazilian didn’t continue his run and it was intercepted. That turnover led to a desperate Zuparic tackle and a yellow card. I can’t think of a better metaphor for the May 2025 Timbers.

Ariel Lassiter: 6.5

Jonathan Rodriguez’s absence led to increased minutes for Lassiter. I thought he was a player on the pitch in a Nature Unites kit. On a more serious note, I do like his set piece deliveries. I think it’s the best on the team, which does say something about this team’s inability to capitalize on attacking set pieces.

Felipe Mora: 6.5

I hoped that Mora’s cameo would be alongside Kelsy, not in place of him. Portland hasn’t experimented enough with 2-striker looks, and it would’ve been an interesting wrinkle as they chased an equalizer on the road. Like Kelsy, Mora didn’t receive any service. Sigh.

Coach Rating: 7.5

Neville spoke post-game about the tactical plan, but it was undone by individual errors. I saw the vision (hit on the counter while defending deep) and it should’ve worked. That’s a good setup for a cross-country road trip on short rest. You could hear his disappointment in the post-game presser. It wasn’t a poor tactical plan that caused the Timbers to drop points today; it was sloppy individual mistakes and poor effort to chase an equalizer.

Table Time

The Timbers have officially dropped out of the top 4, but only on goal differential. LAFC erased a 2-0 deficit in Montreal, and the Sounders got away with it again. Tonight’s result guarantees the massive importance of Wednesday’s home game against Colorado. This midweek slate is primed for Western Conference cannibalization, and the Timbers need to take advantage. There is a four-point gap between 4th place and the play-in game. Elbow room doesn’t exist in the West.

Final Whistle

To be completely honest, I was expecting worse than a 1-0 loss. However, it was still disappointing to see this team fail to properly chase an equalizer throughout the second half as they kept Orlando pinned down in their box. This team desperately needs a healthy Jonathan Rodriguez, and it’s unclear whether or not the 2024 version of the Uruguayan will be seen this year. You can add in another point about offensive regression, but not in the sense of xG differential.

In order to properly underperform xG, the Timbers have to create a lot to begin with. Portland’s attack has been heavily reliant on transitions, and they haven’t figured out how to properly create in possession. I’d begin by watching Orlando’s offense today. Their off-ball movement constantly had Portland’s defenders guessing, but those defenders did a great job of recovering. The Timbers do not put opposition defenders on the back foot unless they’re in transition. Off-ball movement, overlapping runs, and getting to the endline for cutbacks would transform this offense.

I did a modest shrug as this game ended. 3 points were going to be a herculean task, and the fatigue of a heavy workload began to weigh on the players. But it was a game where they could’ve stolen a point, and they continue to be winless in Florida unless they are in a bubble and a trophy is at stake. It doesn’t surprise me one bit. Florida is the polar opposite of the Pacific Northwest; a land of oppressive humidity and wackos. As the Timbers leave Orlando with some regrets, their focus turns to a much more important fixture: the Colorado Rapids at home on Wednesday night. After that game, it’s time for a much-needed 10-day break. But make no mistake about it: Wednesday’s game is firmly in must-win territory. The climb continues.