A High Note

The Portland Timbers swept the season series with the Colorado Rapids after winning 2-1 at Providence Park. This game had a little bit of everything.

Recap

By the 20th minute, the Timbers were fully in control. After taking their first shot of the game in the 7th minute, they wouldn't trail in that category for the rest of the game. The first major chance also came their way. A 21st-minute Santiago Moreno cross found an unmarked Felipe Mora in the box, but the Chilean's free header went wide right. Three minutes later, Finn Surman received his first yellow card of the season. That booking became very important in the 33rd minute.

Djordje Mihailovic recovered a loose ball in the middle of the field and immediately began driving towards the box. The yellow-carded Surman was in position to make a challenge, but didn't want to risk a second booking. The Rapids' talisman carried the ball all the way into the box and finished past Maxime Crepeau at the far post. A 1-0 lead against the run of play for the visitors.

Portland's next chance came in the 41st minute. Joao Ortiz played an excellent through ball to David Da Costa, who attempted to square it to an onrushing Mora. Andreas Maxso blocked it, but it took a touch off his hand. Referee Chris Penso correctly pointed to the spot. Mora stepped up to take the penalty and sent a weak shot directly at Colorado keeper Nico Hansen. It will probably be the easiest penalty save of the entire year for a MLS keeper. Portland went into halftime down 1-0 and with a 9-5 advantage on shots. Not a bad half on paper, but with only 0.25 xG generated from open play.

The second half began with an injury. Mihailovic went down in the box after making a mess out of a shot in the 53rd minute. He was replaced by Wayne Frederick. Mihailovic's exit necessitated the substitution of Omir Fernandez in place of Ortiz for the Timbers. Two Rapids chances came in quick succession, and both fell to Sam Bassett. The first (57th minute) resulted in a field goal from a counter. But the second was the turning point. A well worked Colorado attack in the 59th minute led to a point-blank chance in the box, but Bassett's shot was denied by the crossbar. With luck fully on their side, the Timbers immediately countered. Da Costa's resulting through ball to Antony in space was slid home past Hansen to tie the game 1-1.

The missed chance-turned equalizer gave the Timbers life. But when extra help is offered, it must be accepted. Frederick, who had only been on the field for 13 minutes, decided to lunge with his studs exposed for the ball in minute 67. However, David Ayala was in the way, and he received the full force of Frederick's studs directly to his leg. That is a textbook red card with no room for error.

Now the stakes for Portland were extremely high. With Mihailovic subbed off and Frederick red-carded, they had to win this game. And they did!

In the 76th minute, Juan Mosquera and Moreno engaged in some excellent combo play on the right side before Mosquera sent a perfect ground cross through the box. Kevin Kelsy continued his run all the way to the doorstep of the goal for an easy tap-in and his first goal at Providence Park. Portland was able to hold on, and they made a dramatic return to the win column right before a 10-day break.

Update: The Hypothesis

Don’t worry, I will talk about the bad stuff. But the Timbers won this game and put in a convincing performance as the home team.

The “home team” part is really important. The Hypothesis stated that the Timbers are a better road team than home team. I chose shots and field tilt (the ratio of Timbers final third touches to total final third touches in a game) for this incredibly scientific experiment. Well, it’s time to add the data of Portland’s last four MLS games. Thankfully, there have been two road games and two home games in this updated set (click here and scroll down to see the raw numbers of Portland’s first 12 games).

Totals as of May 11th (SKC home):

Home average: S 9.5-14, FT 33.5-66.5

Road average: S 12.6-13.8, FT 45.5-54.5

Seattle: S 4-13, FT 36-64

Colorado: S 23-11, FT 67-33

@ RSL: S 8-12, FT 47-53

@ Orlando: S 7-14, FT 64-36

NEW AVERAGES:

Home: S 10.5-14, FT 38-62

Away: S 11.4-13.6, FT 48-52

Only two data sets have trended downward: both shot categories on the road. But Portland’s home shots have improved by a full point and their home field tilt is up 5.5 points. The road field tilt is also on the rise. There are only two data points added to each category, but it’s still fun to track!

Based on field tilt, this is Portland’s most dominant home performance of the season. It is the only time in 2025 that they have finished a home game with a positive field tilt. That could be due to the red card, but it was trending in a positive manner before Fredericks launched himself into Ayala’s leg. These are baby steps, but it’s still encouraging to see. I don’t care whether or not The Hypothesis is right or wrong. It simply needed to be tested using the scientific method. My job is to collect the data and present it. I have no bias in this experiment. The numbers speak for themselves.

Eureka!

*Minor asterisk: the Rapids were playing with 10 men from minute 67 until the final whistle.*

The asterisk is important because of the game state, but I think that Phil Neville has found a potential solution to the attacking struggles.

Let’s begin with the big chances that the Timbers created in the first half. The first (Mora’s missed free header) was a second ball from a cleared corner kick. That falls in the category of “set piece.” The penalty was due to a handball blocking a cross that was created from a through ball. The through ball technically didn’t “create” the chance, but the penalty wouldn’t have occurred without it. This is how the Timbers lined up at the start of the game.

Neville’s first change was bringing on Omir Fernandez in place of Ortiz. I was not a fan of this substitution in real time.

I was anticipating more Fernandez minutes in the double pivot. I haven’t been quiet about my disdain about Fernandez playing in that position. Neville has even thrown a couple jokes my way about it (in good sport). When that substitution board was held up, I groaned. However, it proved to be a masterstroke for one simple reason.

Not only was this formation change beneficial to Fernandez, it pushed Da Costa’s game to another level. Let’s begin with the former Rapid. With Fernandez playing in a slightly more advanced role, it allowed his constant off-ball movement to create space in the final third for Portland’s other attackers. In order for Portland’s attack to be successful, two things need to present: space and players in the box. Think about it. Their attack dried up when teams stopped giving the Timbers space to exploit. They weren’t very good at creating that space in the first place, so they became heavily reliant on counterattacks when space already existed. The front four (3 attacking midfielders and a striker) in a 4-2-3-1 was often attacking into a block of five or six. With little off-ball movement and a dearth of box-crashing runs, the Timbers became incredibly easy to defend. Neville’s choice to bring on Fernandez as an 8 began to open up space in the box when the Timbers had possession.

Da Costa also benefited from this shift. As a 10, he often drifted out to the wings (mostly the left) and left a ton of space centrally that wasn’t being properly occupied. However, as a left-sided 8, it was much easier for him to use the left side with some extra cover in the midfield. By installing two 8s who were constantly looking to get into the box/command attention from Colorado’s defenders, Neville made the Timbers hard to defend against. Which is the ultimate goal of this team’s attack. Although Neville seems married to the 4-2-3-1, I’d love to see the Timbers use this tactic from the opening whistle in one of their upcoming matches. They have the players to fill the necessary roles.

Da Costa would be Sharpied in as the left-sided 8. Fernandez, Paredes, and even Ortiz (THROUGH BALLS) could play on the opposite side. Even Ayala could deputize in that role, and I believe that he would do a good job there. The lone 6 could be Ayala, Paredes, Ortiz, or Chara. If Rodriguez makes a full recovery from his injury and plays his way into a starting role on the left, Moreno could occupy the right 8 while Antony switches to the right wing. By adding another player to the attack, the pressure on Da Costa to stay central and create would be decreased. A deeper-lying Portuguese Dave also gives him more of a runway to carry the ball forward as he receives the ball closer to his defense. This was my “Eureka” moment of the game. The only caveat was the Timbers playing against 10 men. But it was effective enough to warrant a go in a match against a full strength team. I think they’ve found a solution to their biggest offensive problem.

The Bad Stuff

I’d only like to focus on one bad thing in this section. Although it’s titled “the bad stuff” I think there’s one truly reprehensible pattern of play that the Timbers routinely exhibit. And, folks, I’m fed up.

There are lots of passes that can be qualified as “risky.” Through balls are inherently risky, but the payoff outweighs the risk. In this game, Nico Hansen played an excellent pass directly through Portland’s defense to Rafael Navarro. That pass was risky, but the amount of distance covered by the pass was worth the risk. However, the Timbers are addicted to playing one type of pass where the risk far outweighs the reward.

Picture this: a Timbers player has the ball on the wing (pick either flank, this pass doesn’t discriminate). With a primary goal of keeping possession, the player turns and passes the ball ON THE GROUND directly into the center of the pitch. I don’t even need to add a clip here. You all know what I’m talking about 80% of the time it’s an instant turnover. 10% of the time a Timbers player receives the ball but is instantly put under heavy pressure. 5% of the time the ball instantly goes backwards. 5% of the time the defense has reset after the player receives the ball. This pass infuriates me. The Timbers are making their life harder for themselves by even thinking about playing it. They need to erase that pass from their collective minds. Try something risky with upside instead, like a ball over the top or a through ball.

Player Ratings

Maxime Crepeau: 6.9

I’m not going to break down Colorado’s goal in detail, but I do think that Crepeau could have done better. That seems rather nit-picky because it was a 1v1, but I’ve seen him make similar saves before. But what did concern me were several miscommunications with Finn Surman in the first half. One of which was a 25th minute Mihailovic cross into the box that Crepeau had a clear line to claim. But Surman rose up and headed it out for a corner. I couldn’t hear what was going on in Portland’s box, but I can safely assume that there was no communication from Crepeau at that moment. That’s worrisome. He did make a couple of nice saves in the second half, but Colorado’s biggest chance was put off the crossbar with Crepeau on the ground. That chance, by the way, was born out of a collision between Crepeau and Kamal Miller. Another communication error.

Juan Mosquera: 8.9

I’ve been rather harsh on Mosquera over the past month because I thought he was underperforming in the attack. Phil Neville thought the same, and he spoke about a meeting that he had with the Colombian right back prior to tonights’ game. “We need you to win us this game.” Technically, Mosquera did exactly that. After a month of poor, non-threatening crosses, it was his driven ball to the far post that got tapped home by Kelsy to win the game. Although that cross was his best of the season (by far), he looked threatening every time he marauded up Portland’s right flank. That is the level (both offensively and defensively) that Mosquera needs to be at every week. He probably should’ve had two assists, but a poor Felipe Mora touch in the 52nd minute erased the opportunity for the Timbers.

Finn Surman: 7.8

Finn Surman committed one foul tonight, and he got booked for it. On the surface, I thought it was a bookable offense. But it was Surman’s first yellow card of the season, and it ended up costing the Timbers. On Mihailovic’s goal, Surman was hesitant to put in a tackle or a challenge in fear of getting sent off. I’m conflicted about that. The Kiwi’s body of work throughout the season has led me to believe that he could make a clean challenge in that moment. But I understand his fear because of the inconsistent officiating in MLS. However, if he knew that he wasn’t going to make a challenge, he could have dropped deeper and allowed a non-booked player to try and win the ball back. By obstructing Kamal Miller in particular, he inadvertently gave Mihailovic a free run at Portland’s goal. It’s a youthful mistake if anything. He’ll learn from it. Other than that, he was fantastic per usual.

Kamal Miller: 8.6

Miller’s biggest problem is consistency and his propensity for errors. In the 26th minute, he made a poor pass but Santiago Moreno was able to win the ball back. Those are way too commonplace for him. But in the second half, he became a defensive rock. A ball was in the air? Miller headed it away. A last-man tackle? He timed it perfectly. A back-post header off of a perfect cross from Da Costa? Well, it got saved, but it was a good piece of skill. There are people who are still unconvinced by him. I understand their concerns, but an in-form Kamal Miller is easily Portland’s second-best center back. That says a lot with Dario Zuparic pushing him for a starting spot every week.

Jimer Fory: 8.7

If Miller wasn’t winning everything in the air, it’s because Fory already beat him to the ball. I particularly enjoyed his battle with Ted Ku-DiPietro in the first half. Both players were giving it their all. I know he has a lot to give in the attack, but his defensive qualities raise the Timbers’ floor. Neville wants the Timbers to supply Colombia with fullbacks for next year’s World Cup. Fory has to be on their radar already.

Joao Ortiz: 8.1

Through balls. By definition, a through ball is a pass that bypasses multiple lines of defenders. The Ecuadorian has been getting more and more confident each week, and those through balls are the biggest evidence. Like I said earlier, I thought subbing him off was rather harsh, but it was for tactical reasons. He has logged the most minutes during the month of May out of every Timbers midfielder.

David Ayala: 9

Neville is getting tired of me asking about Ayala in post-game press conferences. “He’s the best midfielder in the conference, without a shadow of a doubt. I’ve said it two or three times by now.” However, I do have one nit-pick. His diagonal switches are among the best in the league, but I’d like to see him become more direct with his passing. I’m asking Chef Ayala to serve me a healthy portion size of through balls. He’s done it before, but I haven’t seen them in a while.

Santiago Moreno: 8.2

Moreno is one of the only players on the team who is willing to try a shot from outside the box. After witnessing him force Hansen into a spectacular save in the 62nd minute, I’d like to see him try them more often. He’s still the best set-piece taker on the team, and I’d love to see him aim them towards the back post. If Mora gets decent contact on that header, the Colombian has an assist.

David Da Costa: 9.2

Da Costa had a season-high goals added rating. Do not throw things at me; it’s proof that the advanced stats match the eye test. He’s credited with 7 chances created, and he notched his 8th (MLS) assist of the season. I will pivot to MLS stats because that’s tied for the most in the league. I’m going to repeat the point I made earlier about the left-sided 8 position. I think David Da Costa is a left-sided 8.

Antony: 8.4

6 goals in 7 games against the Colorado Rapids. “I just like to score goals against Colorado.” Fair play. Although the goal will steal the headlines, he was outstanding defensively as well. It’s time to run his stats through Stathead: 1 goal, 6 shots, 6/6 tackles won. I asked him post-game what it is about the Colorado Rapids that turns him into a demon. Little did I know that there was an actual demonic nature to his performance.

Antony is the first player to accomplish this feat in an MLS game. I lowered the tackle requirement to 5, and I got a result.

Antony stands alone in his demonic activities. You have to hand it to him.

Felipe Mora: 6.3

I think that was the worst penalty I’ve ever seen a Timbers player take. When you add in the missed header, Mora left a total of 1.09 xG on the field today. However, although those big chances loom over his performance like a mountain, his link-up play was still very good. Especially the header that sprung Da Costa on Portland’s equalizer. But strikers need to score those, especially the penalty.

Omir Fernandez: 7.8

I can’t give Fernandez the high grade that he probably deserves because his on-ball work wasn’t that impressive. But I can give him a new nickname: the Spaceman.

His unselfish run alongside Mosquera occupies defenders and opens space for the Colombian to deliver the cross for Kelsy’s winning goal. Throughout his time on the pitch, he was constantly trying to get into the box. He did everything but record a meaningful stat. This is what the box score doesn’t show you. Fernandez looked like a natural in that right-sided number 8 role.

Kevin Kelsy: 8.5

When something spectacular is happening right in front of your eyes, you have to take notice. Right now, the Portland Timbers have a generational talent on this roster. The physical comedy provided by Kevin Kelsy is astounding for a player of his age.

*Unfortunately, I can no longer record the match replays on my laptop. You have seriously disappointed me, Apple. Go to the 3rd minute of second half stoppage time to watch Kelsy slide towards the sideline to try and keep the ball in play but completely whiff and run into a photographer instead. This stinks. My description does not do it justice.*

By the end of the season, he will author an all-time blooper reel. But I’d like to highlight his effort on this play because it translates so well to his goal. Where is the easiest spot to put the ball in the back of the net? Well, from right on the goal line of course! Kelsy entered the game in the 64th minute and didn’t stop running. His reward was a game-winning goal.

Ariel Lassiter: 6.8

The Costa Rican is starting to grow on me. I like the quality of his crosses and his non-stop effort on the pitch. He didn’t produce a meaningful stat, but it was a good choice to sub him in for a tired Antony.

Diego Chara: 7.4

The club captain made his return to the pitch to close out the game, and he created 2 chances in 10 minutes of game time. Outstanding. However, his biggest moment of the game was a challenge on Calvin Harris just outside of Colorado’s box. The Rapids wanted a penalty, but Chris Penso waived off their protests. Upon further review, I believe that it could have been a foul, but not a penalty because the contact occurred outside the box. If it’s given as a foul, I wouldn’t have a problem with it.

Coach Rating: 8

I thought Neville got all the substitutions right, but it’s also worth noting that the Rapids were playing with 10 men for the majority of the second half. Either way, the Fernandez for Ortiz change was a masterstroke. Let’s see if those lessons carry over into the next game.

Table Time

Congratulations to the Portland Timbers, for they have now entered Game-in-Hand Land! I always feel optimistic about games in hand because they’re always a potential win. However, that game in hand is against Vancouver, who are about to play in the CCC Final this weekend. The Whitecaps have been stacking points, sure, but this upcoming game will define their season. Since we’re speaking about hypothetical wins, if a penalty was correctly awarded at the end of the Galaxy game (The Asterisk) the Portland Timbers would be in sole possession of second place in the West. Well, unless Felipe Mora took it (Too mean? Eh, who cares. They won tonight. And Mora redeemed himself (somewhat) by winning the header that led to the equalizer.).

Final Whistle

My main message in the preview of this match was about making Providence Park a fortress again. However, since the opening day loss to Vancouver, the Timbers have rattled off a 7-game unbeaten streak at home. Has it felt like that? No, not really, but it’s definitely a fact! As a treat, the Timbers now get 10 days off (not really, they will be training) before facing St. Louis on June 8th for Sunday Night Soccer.

Portland’s rough month of May has finally ended, and they finished it on a high note. As they enter the Leagues Cup run-in with 5 of their next 8 games at Providence Park, it feels like they’re in a good place. They effectively weathered a storm and are still getting better. Things are beginning to click into place, and they’ve kept the chase for a top-4 spot alive. The climb continues.