A Biketown Mother's Day

*Cover photo credit to Craig Mitchelldyer/Portland Timbers.*

The Portland Timbers had one goal in mind after last weekend’s 4-1 loss in San Jose: get back to winning ways. On their return to Providence Park after two weeks away, they did exactly that with a 1-0 victory against Sporting Kansas City.

The First Half

That lone goal spectacularly found the back of the net in the 10th minute. David Da Costa played a cross to the back post, and Santiago Moreno juggled it to himself with his first touch before leaving the ground with a stunning bicycle kick finish. More on that later. However, the Timbers immediately ceded momentum to the visitors and Maxime Crepeau was forced to make three excellent saves in quick succession. Portland dropped deeper to open space in behind, but SKC continued to make danger around the Timbers’ box. However, very few “dangerous” chances arose out of it. The best one occurred in the 21st minute, when Claudio Bravo’s cross found Moreno at the back post but John Pulskamp denied him with an excellent bit of goalkeeping. Both teams entered halftime with the onus to score once play resumed.

The Second Half

Neither team scored a goal in the second half, but there was palpable tension throughout the stadium as both teams probed the area around the opposition box. The best chance came in the 54th minute. A Moreno cross found Felipe Mora in the box with plenty of space, but the Chilean took too many touches and the ball eventually went out of bounds for a goalkick. Portland did not attack well at all in the second half, but their defense stood strong and fully earned the clean sheet.

Here is SKC’s shotmap from the second half. All five of these chances combined to produce 0.19 xG. On Thursday, Phil Neville said that he doesn’t like xG. I’m sure that he’ll like it in this instance. This was a fully deserved win and clean sheet for the Portland Timbers. It’s their first shutout since April 5th in Austin; a period that spans five games.

The Hypothesis

“We haven’t been brilliant at home so far this season,” Neville said post-game. He’s not wrong. The Portland Timbers have played 12 games in 2025, split equally between home and away. They have only collected one more point at home (11 to 10, by the way the Timbers have 21 points in 12 games, that’s pretty good). 12 games with an even split between home and away is a pretty large sample to hypothesize.

It’s time to introduce the first Hypothesis (capitalized because I will keep referencing it in future articles like the Asterisk) for the 2025 Timbers: they are a better team away from home. This sounds like madness considering their last road result was a 4-1 loss, but bear with me. It’s time to take a brief trip to elementary school.

This might look better on a trifold display board, but I’ll have to stick to writing about it because I hated science fairs only due to the insistence of using the trifold display board instead of writing a paper and I don’t want to fully commit to a bit that I absolutely don’t want to do. With that disclaimer fully out of the way, let’s use the scientific method to test that Hypothesis.

First, let’s establish each step because science demands thoroughness.

Observation: The Timbers look (keyword: “look,” establishing observation) better on the road than at home.

Question: Are the Timbers better on the road or at home? (well, I’ve screwed myself by fully committing to the bit, time to find a trifold display board)

Hypothesis: The Timbers’ game model works better away from home than at Providence Park.

Test: Watching Timbers games

Analysis:

Well, we’ve reached the analysis portion! Thank you for following along even though you probably hate me right now (thank you for subscribing). I’d like to begin this analysis portion by looking at the box score for every 2025 Timbers home game and using two data points: shots and field tilt. Shots is pretty self explanatory: are the Timbers getting outshot at home? Field tilt is a metric that measures the proportion of touches that occur in the final third. Disclaimer number two: I will not arrive at a definitive conclusion because only 12 games have been played. But this will become a recurring section.

If a team is “good” at home (this is my own personal definition because I am the scientist testing my own hypothesis) the team in question should be outshooting their opponents and winning the field tilt battle. Here’s how Portland’s numbers stack up in their first 6 home games, with their own shots and field tilt percentage listed first. All stats come from @mlsstat.bsky.social. “S” denotes shots, and “FT” is field tilt.

Vancouver: S 6-22, FT 19-81

Austin: S 7-13, FT 47-53

LA Galaxy: S 9-13, FT 36-64

Houston: S 16-10, FT 35-65

LAFC: S 10-19, FT 26-74

SKC: S 9-11, FT 38-62

These are the results from Portland’s first 6 home games. Let’s take a look at their first 6 road games and develop some averages for each data set. Averages will be calculated by the mean of all data points.

@ Nashville: S 9-24, FT 43-57

@ Colorado: S 12-8, FT 31-69

@ Austin: S 12-11, FT 61-39

@ SKC: S 15-9, FT 42-58

@ LA Galaxy: S 11-16, FT 44-56

@ San Jose: S 17-15, FT 52-48

AVERAGES

Home: S 9.5-14, FT 33.5-66.5

Away: S 12.6-13.8, FT 45.5-54.5

That is a striking disparity between home and away. Now, those numbers do not directly correlate to winning games. Houston (3-1 win) and San Jose away (4-1 loss) are prime examples of that. But that concludes the initial analysis portion of this season-long experiment. What have we learned?

The Timbers are getting regularly outshot at home, including tonight. They are more fixated on creating space in behind opposition backlines by defending deeper than becoming more dangerous in possession. It’s too small of a sample size to draw massive conclusions from, but it is something interesting to track as the season goes on.

What is Momentum?

Trading space in behind for a worse field tilt is a perfect segway for takeaway number two: momentum and why the Timbers have made it irrelevant. I noted in my recap of the 3-2 Open Cup victory against Tacoma that the Timbers routinely allow big chances after scoring or conceding. That pattern held firm in tonight’s game.

This graph, courtesy of @gameflow.bsky.social, is an illustration of what happened in the 20 minutes after Moreno’s goal. Five minutes later, SKC created the two most dangerous chances of the half. Not offering any solutions beyond this:

All of you should understand this reference, no matter what age you happen to be. I’m going to keep pointing this out in every game, because I doubt that the Timbers will partake in too many 0-0 draws with the way that they play.

That seems like a lot of negativity for a good win, but don’t worry! That’s about to change!

Player Ratings

Santiago Moreno: 9.6

Can you pay tribute to three different players with one goal? Santiago Moreno answered that question with an emphatic “yes.”

Let’s begin with the obvious tribute to Dairon Asprilla. Not only is Asprilla the master of the bicycle kick, he also scored one by juggling the ball with his first touch and going for the overhead kick with his second (the San Jose bike that should have won Goal of the Year). “In that moment, I did think of him,” Moreno said post-game. I think we all did.

I don’t know how many people thought of Yimmi Chara after that goal, but I’m in that club. Yimmi Chara, who scored bicycle kicks in back to back games to open the 2022 season. Like Chara, Moreno called his goal a “Chilena” after the game. Is there a difference between a bike and a Chilena? I think it’s two different words for the same action.

The last player who Moreno is paying tribute to is someone who he never played with. In 2011, against the same opponent, Darlington Nagbe scored a worldie. He juggled the ball and hit a return address (not a postage stamp because it entered the net in the top left corner, I work for the Postal Service by the way). Meanwhile, this tribute has another special element. *trumpet fanfare* BRING OUT THE CHART!

I’ve used this chart (popularly referred to as the Darlington Nagbe heatmap) to explain Santiago Moreno. That bright green zone was dominated by the Colombian today. Within five minutes of the opening whistle, Moreno made three key defensive plays that sprung counterattacks. The bicycle kick will (correctly) steal all the headlines, but 2/2 tackles won and 3 recoveries are just as important. Well, no they’re not, but you get the point. Since tomorrow is Mother’s Day, the Colombian had a special guest in attendance: his mom. He said post-game that he planned to go celebrate with her if he scored on her side of the field. Guess what end of the field he scored that bike?

Maxime Crepeau: 9.6

It’s time for me to make an admission: I was wrong.

After the San Jose game, I wrongly assumed that Crepeau had given up on San Jose’s second goal due to a lack of a dive. I failed to take into account a much simpler explanation: a lack of confidence that left him deciding between two possibilities and taking neither. Guess who has his confidence back?

Those 3 saves before the 20th minute kept the Timbers in the game. It mirrored his Save of the Year contender against Tacoma: a massive save at the right time. It’s worth remembering that Crepeau wasn’t dropped due to performance, but injury. He revealed after the game that it was an adductor issue, and the three matches he started in the past week have done worlds of good for his fitness and confidence. The Timbers do not win this game if Crepeau doesn’t make those saves. In addition to his outstanding game, his leadership qualities deserve a mention. Not too many goalkeepers would be OK with being dropped (I’m sure you’re remembering one right now). But Crepeau didn’t let the loss of his starting job affect the way that he interacted with his teammates. Rather than pouting, he continued to be a valuable leader in the locker room despite not seeing the pitch for two months. Class act.

Juan Mosquera: 7.2

I feel like Mosquera hasn’t gotten out of first gear so far in 2025. But tonight’s performance was a step in the right direction. He performed his defensive duties admirably (aside from letting Daniel Salloi ghost inside him to fire a point-blank shot that got saved by Crepeau) and was a threat down the right wing during attacking situations.

Finn Surman: 8.5

He’s going to score a goal this year. I know it. But in order to do so, his teammates have to find him on corner kicks. In other news, he’s CB1. He barely put a foot wrong against a SKC team that was pulling out every press trigger in the book. These performances are becoming the norm. For the Timbers, that’s great. For a 21-year-old center back, it’s outstanding.

Kamal Miller: 8.4

Adding another tally mark to my list of “perfectly timed Kamal Miller slide tackles.” I don’t think there was a standout moment for him from this game, but an overwhelming amount of consistency. His passing? Excellent. His defensive work? Excellent. This was a needed bounce-back game for him, and he certainly bounced back.

Claudio Bravo: 6.8

Bravo created Portland’s best chance of the night with an opportunistic interception, a hard run forward, and a perfect cross to Moreno. It’s unfortunate that Pulskamp was able to save the resulting shot, but it was Bravo’s best contribution of the game. I’m still a little worried about his risk-taking on defense, and many of his defensive blushes were spared. But he offers so much on the ball that I’m willing to give that a pass, at least tonight.

Joao Ortiz: 8.7

Those Bravo blushes were spared by Ortiz, who was constantly shifting into the fullback areas (both right and left) to cover for Bravo and Mosquera. This was Ortiz’s best performance in a Timbers shirt, and Phil Neville gave some thoughts on the Ecuadorian after tonight’s match:

“He was the best player on the pitch, I thought it was his most consistent performance. You could see that he was growing in confidence throughout the game, his in and out of possession stuff I thought was fantastic. His adaptation has gone exactly how we thought it would. He’s come from a league that’s played at a lower tempo level. We’ve been taking him off at 60 minutes because I think at that point he’s been running out of gas a little bit. [He] played 90 minutes because he kept the tempo throughout the game. I honestly think we’ve got a real good player on our hands.”

David Ayala: 8.2

Ayala and Ortiz suffered from a few misplaced passes in the second half, but it was the Argentinean who got subbed off in the 68th minute. I’d imagine that it was due to the upcoming trip to Salt Lake City. But when Ayala was on the pitch, he was excellent. I’d like to note his growing confidence in taking defenders on directly with the ball. His dribbling style in unorthodox, but it’s effective.

Antony: 7.3

The gameplan called for Antony to run hard and be a threat every time he touched the ball. I think he did exactly that even though his effectiveness was limited around the box. Even if Antony isn’t consistently on the scoresheet, he’s consistently dangerous.

David Da Costa: 8.1

Make that 3 straight games with a goal contribution for Portuguese Dave, including 4 out of his last 5. I have a larger point to make about the pattern of play that led to Moreno’s bike, but I’m going to save that for the RSL preview. Lots of things to #notice about this Timbers team, and Da Costa’s excellence is towards the top of the list.

Felipe Mora: 7.8

If Mora is able to get a shot off from that golden chance in the 54th minute, it likely results in a goal. Instead, he took too many touches and a golden chance that would’ve sealed the game went out the window. Meanwhile, he should teach a class to young forwards about making dangerous runs. He is the smartest player on the pitch in most MLS games. Combine that soccer brain with excellent first touch, vision, and finishing and you have a 10-15 goal striker at minimum. Goodness.

Kevin Kelsy: *LOUD REFEREE WHISTLE*

Kelsy entered the game in the 68th minute and left with 0 shots and 5 fouls. It seemed like referee Ricardo Fierro was hell-bent on punishing the Venezuelan for the crime of being a big guy. I like how active he is off the ball. Seriously, throughout his 30-minute cameo he was constantly running to put pressure on the ball-carrier.

Cristhian Paredes: 6.7

The Closer had a hard time closing today, and his performance was lowlighted by a measly 55% pass accuracy (6/11). He probably has the worst first touch on the team, and it continually lets him down. However, I liked his energy off the ball, and he did perform his closing duties.

Jonathan Rodriguez: 6.6

In just under 20 minutes of game time, Rodriguez only touched the ball 3 times. I’m beginning to think that he’s in line for his first start on Wednesday in Salt Lake City.

Omir Fernandez: 8

In his home debut, Fernandez made the most of his time on the field: 2 chances created, 1/1 accurate crosses, 2/2 tackles completed, and a combined 4/4 duel wins (including 1 in the air). Lots of 100 percents in those stats. He’s been utilized as a supersub in all three of his league matches, and has made a real difference in two of them.

Eric Miller: 7.3

Miller had a busy outing in only 10 minutes of game time, but he solidified the right side of the defense as the team held on for a clean sheet. I want to give him a nickname. How about Mr. Reliable?

Table Time

Portland entered today in 3rd place, and held on to 3rd place with tonight’s win. However, there is now a 4-point gap between themselves and 6th-place LAFC. That’s more distance than they had last week. LAFC visits Vancouver on Sunday afternoon, but they can’t overtake the Timbers. Did the Timbers gain any ground in the Shield?

Yes they did! Now they’re in 7th and tied on points with Inter Miami. If Vancouver wins tomorrow, their gap to 1st place increases to 8 points. However, they’re only four points behind 2nd-placed Cincinnati. Fun!

Final Whistle

This was a game that the Timbers had to win, and they did. Despite some worrisome moments, the team successfully held on with a 1-0 lead for 84 minutes. That’s impressive work. They accomplished that feat without their starting left back or starting goalkeeper. Even though SKC was famously held shotless last weekend, I firmly believe that they can potentially be a spoiler as the season progresses. This isn’t just a win, it’s a good win.

These 2025 Timbers needed a moment like Moreno’s bicycle kick. I’d like to take some time to analyze another picture. You’ve probably seen it already because it’s the cover photo.

There are two notable embraces occurring here. Moreno hugging his mom is obviously the focus, but Antony has his right arm around Da Costa in the bottom right. It has almost been two years since the Brazilian arrived in Portland while only speaking Portuguese. Evander and Nathan Fogaca helped him settle, and a fully comfortable Antony is tied for the 3rd-most goal contributions in the entire league. He’s helped Da Costa settle in Portland, and both Portuguese speakers have some of the best chemistry on the team. Look at Juan Mosquera, who is probably shouting encouragement to one of the players that helped him settle in this foreign land. This team is still fueled by the power of friendship, above all else. But it was one players’ love for his mother that created the magic moment to give them all three points. Year 50 rolls on, with a bicycle kick chapter now added to a growing book. They bounced back, and now it’s time to embark on a difficult week with a trip to Salt Lake City and their only home clash with their biggest rivals on the horizon. The climb continues.